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The principal aims of this paper are to examine the range of reported unit costs for major generating technologies, show the range of estimates, explain where possible the reasons for the range, and show to what extent there is any clustering around central values. In addition, the paper explains the components of unit cost calculations and discussed what is, and is not, included in these calculations.

The role of the UK Energy Research Centre Marine Energy Research Network in developing a route map for marine renewable energy research is described and put into the context of previous and current marine energy research at a national and EU level. A summary of the route mapping process is given based upon the Batelle approach. Justification is provided for route mapping in terms of encouraging cooperation and collaboration within the community to develop a coherent reseach, development and demonstration strategy, which will be used to inform policy makers and funding bodies. Some preliminary outputs from the network are presented in the paper to encourage discussion.

This working paper considers the risks and opportunities posed to UK heat sector businesses by a potential transformation towards a low-carbon heat system in the UK. It is an output from the Heat, Incumbency and Transformations (HIT) project which is part of the UK Energy Research Centre programme.

The HIT project is investigating the idea of incumbency, considering what the term means, how it is present in the UKs heat sector and what the implications of incumbency are for the UKs potential transformation from a high carbon heat system to a low-carbon heat system.

The previous working paper developed a working definition of incumbency (Loweset al., 2017). This working paper forms the second phase of the project, exploring who the incumbents are in the UK heat system and the implications of the potential transformation for incumbents.

An online m

This note provides an overview and guide to a process of assessment being undertaken by the UK Energy Research Centre Technology and Policy Assessment function (TPA), with support from the Carbon Trust.

The UKERC has consulted widely on the topics that the TPA needs to consider. It has chosen its preliminary topics carefully, in consultation with stakeholders and in accordance with defined criteria. Intermittency – used herein as shorthand for a range of issues that relate to the costs and electricity system impacts of the intermittent electrical output from wind, solar and some other forms of grid connected renewable generation – has emerged as one of two initial TPA assessment topics.

The TPA will undertake meta-analysis of existing work in order to seek gaps in knowledge, examine different modelling assumptions, and consider how well different pieces of work fit together. The assessment will seek to make clear where and why differences arise in terms of models, assumptions, scenarios and interpretation of findings. It will identify research gaps and provide a clear statement of the nature of the questions that remain.

A key goal is to achieve high standards of rigour and transparency. We have therefore set up a process that is inspired by the evidence based approach to policy assessment undertaken in healthcare, education and social policy, but that is not bound to any narrowly defined method or techniques. The approach entails tight specification of the means by which we will consult stakeholders and solicit expert input, highly specified searching of the relevant literature, and clear and transparent criteria against which relevant findings will be assessed. It is described in the Review Protocol, below.

An introduction to the subject matter and description of assessment activities are provided in this scoping note and protocol.

The note is aimed at informed commentators and therefore takes some knowledge for granted – for example of terminology, recent literature and the principal concepts. Its focus is on why and where opinions differ, and the objective is to highlight questions and disagreements, but not answer or resolve either. A more general introduction to the subject is provided in the project scoping note and protocol.

Feedback and comment is invited on all of what follows, and in particular on the set of summary questions at the end of this note.

The remainder of this note covers the following topics:

• Identification of key issues
• Capacity values
• System balancing
• Allocating costs
• Framing questions

The energy system is highly complex and its future is uncertain due to unexpected changes and contrasting values. The complexity of the system may be defined by, for example, changing politics, technologies, finance and demographics. Under these conditions, decision-makers may struggle to confidently assess their future needs. However, decisions must be made so that organisational objectives are achieved, energy supply is secure and directives are met. For high-level decisions (e.g. strategic decisions reaching far into the future) it is unlikely that more time and better data will reduce uncertainty, and as a result, decisions must be made with existing information. Techniques like scenario analysis are useful for gathering this type of disparate information.

Deliberative techniques (e.g. scenario analysis) are used under conditions of high decision complexity and uncertainty. These techniques may interrogate multiple decision options under various future conditions, thus providing a first-step in understanding inherent risks and uncertainties. In this report we used scenario analysis to assess a set of risks under two plausible future energy scenarios. The studied scenarios included an energy system on a trajectory of development that did not deviate from its current projection (status quo) and a low carbon scenario whereby energy generation was largely provided by non-carbon (e.g. renewable) sources. Energy system experts were used to qualify the different risks and provide industrial insight.

The study analysed a suite of nineteen unique risks. These included political (international agreement, geopolitical issues, UK political issues), economic (project capital costs, investor trust in government, commodity pricing, electricity pricing), social (behavioural change, public perception, democratization of process), technical (rate of innovation vs implementation, energy supply chain, project risks, transport infrastructure), legal (end of life and stranded assets, pre/post operational governance, UK planning and licensing), and environmental (cumulative environmental factors, accidents and climactic events) issues.

The results of this study suggest that political and economic drivers pose the greatest risk, or barrier, to future energy system development. Though these two themes were perceived as being most risky, the character of the risks varied for each scenario. For example, political drivers (i.e. geopolitical) and the impact they may have on hydrocarbon prices posed the greatest risk to an energy system reliant on fossil fuels (i.e. status quo). This was in contrast toa low carbon scenario where the character of political risk (i.e. UK politics) focussed around long-term national policy-making, which in turn highlighted issues about investor confidence. Regardless the differences in character, experts perceived political consistency as being vital for improving confidence in their decision-making. Overall, experts consistently rated risks associated with a low carbon scenario higher than those for the status quo.

Our report provides a snapshot of current industrial thinking about the risks associated with different future pathways that the UK energy system may follow. In addition to identifying perceived risk priorities, this analysis also provides an indication of where gaps in knowledge and understanding about risk may exist. Strategies for addressing these gaps may include improved communication (e.g. between industry, government and academia) or targeted research. In either instance, the ultimate aim is to reduce uncertainty and improve conditions for long-term decision-making in the UK energy system.

This UKERC TPA working paper has been prepared to support the Committee on Climate Change’s advice to the UK government on the implications of the Paris Agreement on its long-term emissions reduction targets. In their recent reports, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have highlighted that large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR), defined as any anthropogenic activity that results in the net removal of CO2 from the atmosphere, is critical to meeting the Paris Agreement target.

This review addresses two technological CDR solutions that have been demonstrated: bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS). The overarching questions which this review addresses, for both BECCS and DACCS, are:

1. What is the potential contribution that these technologies could make to CO2 removal and potentially CO2 emissions reductions to achieve net zero emissions in the UK?
2. What are the current and projected costs, globally and in the UK, of these technologies and how plausible are projected cost reductions (including evidence for the benefits to be derived from economies of scale/technology learning)?

This Working Paper presents key findings from research conducted within the Energy and Environment theme since 2009, when the second phase of UKERC activity began. Research within this theme has investigated the impacts associated with a range of marine and land-based energy production and greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation technologies including bioenergy, wind, tidal, gas, nuclear and carbon capture and storage (CCS). The carbon and water footprints of these technologies have been investigated as have their social, economic and environmental impacts and their impacts on terrestrial and marine ecosystem services.

This report explores ways of enhancing the resilience of the UK energy system to withstand external shocks and examines how such measures interact with those designed to reduce CO2 emissions. The concept of resilience explored and a set of indicators is developed to define quantitatively the characteristics of a resilient energy system. In the report we systematically test the response of the UK energy system under different scenarios to hypothetical shocks. These are all assumed to involve the loss of gas infrastructure. We then assess mitigating measures which can help to reduce the impact of these shocks and test their cost effectiveness using an insurance analogy.

This working paper is an output from a project funded by UKERC (the UK Energy Research Centre) that aims to identify and explore some of the key uncertainties that might have a 5 UK Energy Research Centre material impact on if and when large-scale CCS is deployed in the UK. In particular, this paper proposes a number of plausible pathways for CCS progress (or lack of progress) until 2030 and identifies key branching points where a particular trajectory for CCS development may be determined as different pathways diverge from each other. The effectiveness of different criteria to determine which pathway CCS development is following can then be assessed (see the Methodology section for a more detailed explanation of the approach).

Overall, the project aims to make useful contributions to efforts to determine how both the viability and maturity of CCS technology can be assessed more generally. In this context, viability refers to several factors that are outlined in more detail in later sections of this paper, such as whether independent assessments suggest that CCS technology is performing well enough to compete with other options for mitigating the risk of dangerous climate change. Although maturity is related to similar concepts it is more concerned with how far progressed CCS technology appears to be along a continuum of development, rather than the more yes/no assessment that might be expected if only viability is considered. It is, for instance, possible to envisage that a technology be mature in terms of its development but nevertheless not viable unless a set of economic, policy and regulatory conditions are met.

This paper is an output from the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) Research Fund project Carbon Capture and Storage: Realising the potential? (UKERC 2011). The project, led by the University of Sussex is undertaking an inter-disciplinary assessment of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) viability from now to 2030 involving a partnership from the Universities of Sussex, Edinburgh and Imperial College London (Markusson et al. 2011). The overall aims and objectives include helping policy makers understand the conditions for successful commercialisation of CCS and to contributing methodologies to inform policy decisions on whether CCS is proven.This paper is an output from the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) Research Fund project Carbon Capture and Storage: Realising the potential? (UKERC 2011). The project, led by the University of Sussex is undertaking an inter-disciplinary assessment of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) viability from now to 2030 involving a partnership from the Universities of Sussex, Edinburgh and Imperial College London (Markusson et al. 2011). The overall aims and objectives include helping policy makers understand the conditions for successful commercialisation of CCS and to contributing methodologies to inform policy decisions on whether CCS is proven.

The proposal is that our carbon intensive goods and services should contribute to lower carbon emissions and be redefined in light of climate change. A carbon label has the potential to be an important part of this redefinition, but should be built on a successful consensus about what a carbon label should do, how and how this is best delivered. This briefing paper provides a broad review of evidence and poses pertinent questions surrounding the development of carbon labelling.

This report is split up into a series of questions, each of which includes relevant research findings, key issues and questions and implications of these for further work or labelling. They are highly interactive, as a decision on one has considerable influence on other factors. This report is accompanied by an appendix that contains more in-depth explanations and reviews of pertinent studies, papers an

A briefing paper Dr Christophe McGlade and Professor Paul Ekins, UCL Institute for Sustainable Resources and UCL Energy Institute, University College London; Professor Michael Bradshaw, Warwick Business School, University of Warwick; and Professor Jim Watson, UK Energy Research Centre.

The research on which this brief paper draws was carried out by the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC). The views expressed are those of the authors, rather than of any institution to which they may be affiliated.

Two recently published reports (McGlade & Ekins (2015), McGladeet al.(2014)) examine possible futures for fossil fuels, with a particular focus on the bridging role that natural gas may be able to play during a transition to a global low-carbon energy system. A related report (Bradshawet al.2014) considers the UKs global gas c

To inform the UKERC Technology and Policy Assessment project that is examining consumer attitudes to changes in electricity supply voltage, the TPA team co-funded a working paper together with the Transformation of the Top and Tail of Energy Networks (TTaT), an Engineering and Physical Research Council (EPSRC) Grand Challenge research programme. The working paper draws upon a pilot study exploring consumer experiences and attitudes to appliance malfunction, which aimed to establish prior knowledge about voltage, and understanding of the Distribution Network Operators (DNO) role in supplying power.

The European Commission talks the talk on energy, but can it walk the walk? In this UKERC working paper, Antony Froggatt (Chatham House) and Amelia Hadfield (Canterbury Christ Church University) look at the challenge of moving from ambition to delivery in the EU's flagship Energy Union plan.

This workshop brought together a wide range of individuals and organisation with an interest in bioenergy for heat, power and liquid transport. This included researchers from universities and research institutes, Government Research Councils, Government Departments, stakeholders from industry and others. The meeting was convened to begin the process of developing a UK Bioenergy Research Roadmap, which will be completed before the end of 2007.

The aims of the workshop were:

• To prioritise research activity and overcome the gaps in knowledge in bioenergy
• To influence research funding strategies in energy research.
• To encourage closer collaboration between academic research groups and technology developers
• To seek funding for collaborative research from Research Councils, DTI, DEFRA, Carbon Trust EU, etc.
• To establish partner

This working Paper has been prompted by an inquiry into low carbon networks launched in September 2015 by the House of Commons Select Committee on Energy and Climate Change. A response on behalf of UKERC has been submitted to the Committee. This present paper expands on many of the themes included in that response and provides more detail and discussion

Energy has been a central feature of the EU since inception as the European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC) in the 1950s. A mainstay of successive policies has been to introduce ‘singularity’ in to the sphere of energy at different scales – for example, from a narrow central pooling of physical resources, as with the ECSC, to much broader attempts at introducing a liberalised single market place for gas and electricity, and proposals for a single gas buyer mechanism under the 2015 Energy Union framework. These moves were typically internal responses to external events, such as the Arab oil embargoes or geopolitical tension between Russia and eastern European countries. To achieve the goal of a single internal energy market policies have sought to remove or reduce the friction placed on cross-border trade, governance and regulation of energy by often contradictory and conflicting national policies of member states. This has taken the form of specific and targeted pieces of legislation aimed at technical harmonisation, as well as wide-reaching sets of policies to overhaul entire sectors and governance and regulatory practice across all member states.

A recently published working paper written by Joseph Dutton of the University of Exeter Energy Policy Group as part of the Energy systems at multiple scales programme sets out the path along which EU energy policy has moved since the initial creation of the organisation in the 1950s, detailing the principle documents and legislation upon which the current and proposed policies were constructed.

The paper first discusses estimates of the levelised costs of selected technologies and the corresponding rates of return under alternative assumptions as to prices. It then shows how such estimates can be refined to allow for the variability of demand, changes in plant dispatching schedules, storage and so forth. Next it considers the effects of environmental policies and innovation on costs and the rate of return. Finally it considers the issues posed by uncertainty and risks. By beginning with the simple cases of levelised costs and average returns, and then by gradually peeling away assumptions, the aim is to gradually reveal the fundamentally different perspective that arises when the rate of return becomes the focus of investment.

This paper considers GB electricity market and network regulatory arrangements in the context of transitioning to a low carbon electricity system. By considering some of the primary features of a low carbon electricity system and building on themes raised by a previous UKERC Supply Theme paper (Baker, 2009), the paper attempts to identify what characteristics an appropriate market and regulatory framework would need to posses. The paper goes on to consider how existing market arrangements perform in these areas and the possible need for change.

The aim of the paper is to contribute to the debate on energy market reform that is now underway. Currently, discussion seems to be focussing primarily on how to ensure adequate investment in low carbon and, in the medium term, conventional generation to meet the UKs climate change and security of supply goals. Delivering the necessary generation capacity is clearly crucial and by reviewing some of the mechanisms that could be used to encourage investment, this paper attempts to contribute in this area. However, the paper also addresses other areas where reform may be required but that have, to date, received less attention; issues such as arrangements to ensure efficient dispatch and energy balancing, efficient mechanisms to deal with network congestion and measures necessary to facilitate demand side participation.

The approach taken by the paper is incremental in nature, focussing on how current market arrangements may need to develop in the coming years, rather than proposing radical change. It is likely that successfully decarbonising the electricity sector may ultimately require a fundamentally different market design and that change, particularly in relation to low-carbon investment, may be requiredsooner rather than later. However, the transition to a low carbon electricity system will be gradual and arguably best served by incremental change in response to demonstrated need.

This report is one of a series of working papers in the UKERC Energy 2050 project series. It investigated the role of pro-environmental lifestyle change for the UK energy system to 2050. We make two assumptions, both of which seem obvious when stated, but are frequently forgotten or ignored in energy futures work. The first is that the behaviour of energy users is not fixed, but rather the outcome of developments in society, and that these are uncertain with the level of uncertainty increasing over time. The second is that any policy framework that seeks to deliver major changes in the energy system, such as an 80% reduction in CO2 emissions, will be the outcome of a political process in which civil society, i.e. energy users in other roles, will play a key role.

We have used an innovative methodology to combine the strengths of detailed end use models (UK Domestic Carbon Model and UK Transport Carbon Model, both developed at the ECI) and a cost-optimisation model of the whole UK energy system (MARKAL Elastic Demand, developed at UCL).

Research for the UK Energy Research Centre’s Technology and Policy Assessment (TPA) function shows the importance of increased policy support for energy efficiency programmes, after a strategic review found savings in the region of 10% for well designed and implemented programmes. While multiple policies and programmes have been implemented in the past to encourage improvements in household efficiency, both in the UK and globally, the robustness and accuracy of programme evaluations have been called into question.

The authors carried out a systematic review of the evidence base of peer-reviewed evaluation programmes, drawn from conference papers and 20 different journals, in order to find out what works and where the gaps are, and to inform future programme design.

Policy goals to transition national energy systems to meet decarbonisation and security goals must contend with multiple overlapping uncertainties. These uncertainties are pervasive through the complex nature of the system, and exist in a strategic policy area where the impact of investment decisions have long term consequences. Uncertainty also lies in the tools and approaches used, increasing the challenges of informing robust decision making. Energy system studies in the UK have tended not to address uncertainty in a systematic manner, relying on simple scenario or sensitivity analysis. This paper utilises an innovative energy system model, ESME, which characterises multiple uncertainties via probability distributions and propagates these uncertainties to explore trade-offs in cost effective energy transition scenarios. A global sensitivity analysis is then undertaken to explore t

This working paper pulls together and summarises the key information available about energy use and carbon emissions within the UK higher education (HE) sector. In addition it undertakes new analysis based on existing data (some of it unpublished) to provide a better understanding of the sector’s carbon emissions.

The review is structured around the central research question: To what extent are energy and ecosystem scenarios consistent and comparable? The research will be conducted using a Rapid Evidence Assessment (REA) approach. More details on the project and the approach can be found in the scoping note.

This working paper analyses the environmental sustainability of four electricity production systems that include carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS):

• Pulverised coal (PC)
• Pulverised coal with oxyfuel combustion (PCOC)
• Natural gas combined cycle (NGCC), and
• Integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC)

The analysis is based largely on a review of relevant Life Cycle Assessments (LCAs). Thus it considers the environmental sustainability of the entire electricity generation chain from fuel extraction through electricity generation and CO2capture to CO2 storage.

This report provides a brief review of how risks can be incorporated into investment decisions, and how financial analysis needs to go beyond an assessment of levelised costs in order to adequately represent the different sources of risk that a new power plant investment will face in competitive markets.

This is the UKERC working paper.

This is the final report for the DTI and DEFRA on the development of a new UK MARKAL & MARKAL-Macro (M-M) energy systems model. The focus of this final report is on the extensive range of UK 60% CO2 abatement scenarios and sensitivity analysis run for analytical insights to underpin the 2007 Energy White Paper. This analysis was commissioned by the DTI to underpin the development of the 2007 UK Energy White Paper, and this technical report is a companion publication to the policy focused discussion of the modelling work (DTI, 2007).

To what extent are energy and ecosystem scenarios consistent and comparable? A new working paper from the TPA Theme of UKERC suggests that energy and ecosystem service scenarios are broadly consistent, with climate change representing a unifying narrative.

Energy Performance Certificates (EPCs) have been a requirement on sale of all domestic property since December 2007 as part of the introduction of Home Information Packs (HIPs). This report examines how this requirement has been implemented by those on the receiving end of the legislation – the software designers, the domestic energy assessors, the estate agents, the conveyancing solicitors and the householder. Bearing in mind the stated objectives of the EPC, the report then makes a number of recommendations for improving the operation of the scheme.

The project investigated issues surrounding the decarbonisation of heating, which is increasingly seen as a priority by energy policy makers. It considers the move towards low carbon heating from the perspective of incumbency, a topic which has received only limited focus.

Prior research has suggested that incumbent businesses can have both positive and negative influences on decarbonisation. There are examples of large companies investing in low carbon energy and driving change but there are also examples of incumbents trying to resist change therefore slowing or blocking decarbonisation.

This paper focuses on what the policy implications of incumbency in the UK heat sector are for the decarbonisation of UK heat. The paper reports on a large number of interviews with experts working across the UK heat sector. This evidence is further built on using grey sources of literature and data.

This working paper sets out to provide a short introduction to risk and return in making financing and investment decisions in the energy sector, focusing on renewable energy. It will specifically draw on the outcomes of consultation roundtables with financiers on renewable energy policy to illustrate what financiers need from policy to reduce risk and increase returns; what types of issues arise in different policy frameworks; and how policy can affect the attractiveness of different investments. The review of the UK’s Renewables Obligation policy provides a useful focal point for illustrating the latter.

The brief discusses the contextual nuances of staff travel choices and the potential of policy interventions to encourage sustainable travel modes. Through a detailed review of NHS parking policies and broader academic literature on transport practices. It underscores the need to develop comprehensive trave

The study has used a systematic selection and analysis procedure to assess each LCA, collating data on the energy and GHG balances of liquid transport fuels and biomass for heat and power. This consistent approach will produce a dataset which can be used to uniquely compare the energy and GHG balances of these two uses of biomass. The representation of collated LCAs as straightforward visual summaries highlights variations within methodology, system boundaries and reporting.

Although this study is ongoing, several issues relating to the lack of transparency of LCA reporting have already become apparent. Common obstacles to reviewing this subject have been in successfully identifying system boundaries, co-product allocation methods and conversion efficiencies used in the LCAs being analysed. Therefore, a set of recommendations for LCA reporting are listed at the end of this report.

Pilot study report

Working with theEnergy Technologies Institute, Mags Tingey, Dave Hawkey and Jan Webb completed a pilot study exploring local engagement with energy systems. The work, an extension of theHeat and the City project, examined levels of local engagement across all 434 of the UK's local authority areas, and drew together a wide array of datasets with original collation of data.

Findings show that almost one third (30%) of the UKs 434 local authorities are actively planning, and investing in, energy productivity and provision. Most of this activity is on a limited scale with only 9% of UK authorities showing evidence of significant numbers of energy project investments. We characterised this 9% as 'Energy Leaders' and found they displayedmultiple routes into engagement, including economic regeneration, housing upgrades and affordable warmth, energy productivity, avoided costs of alternatives and environmental protection.Particular regions of the show considerably higher levels of local authority engagement, notably London, Scotland, and Yorkshire and Humber, and energy leaders tend to be metropolitan and larger authorities.

Preliminary exploration of the relationship between local authority engagement and levels of low carbon technology deployment (not restricted to local authorities own deployment) shows strong association with non-industrial Combined Heat and Power (CHP). Relationships between engagement and small (under 10MW) renewable electricity generation appears marginally significant. Levelling up deployment of non-industrial CHP across all areas to the levels of the most engagedauthorities would imply significant acceleration in deployment rates. The limited pilot research modelling suggests that the impact of this is small (under 10%) in terms of the UK energy production.

This work will continue under theLocal energy infrastructure operation & governance projectwith support from the Energy Technologies Institute. This work will use qualitative data gathering to explore some of the quantitative relations our pilot work uncovered, in order to build a better picture of the factors supporting and constraining local engagement with energy. We will also engage with UK energy system modelling to help form a clearer picture of the contribution and impact local energy could realistically have in future.

The brief highlights innovative practices in prevention, repair, and recycling that can transform waste management systems, while acknowledging their interconnected complexities across practices. It underscores the need for local authorities to take a whole-system and cross-sectoral approach, empowering them with resources and policy fr

This document sets out some of the theoretical concepts underlying the project Mapping rebound effects from sustainable behaviours and reviews some of the previous studies in this area. The aim is to provide a starting point for the empirical research.

The Paper considers first demand for indium and tellurium from the PV industry, now and in future. Whilst a range of scenarios exist for the role of PV in the global energy mix there is considerable agreement that the share of PV per se and thin film devices in particular is expected to expand considerably in the light of carbon abatement goals.

The paper then considers the supply of indium and tellurium. It provides a detailed review of the processes used to extract and refine them, and discusses the issues associated with producing these secondary metals which are extracted as trace elements during the production of primary metals such as zinc and copper. The Paper finds that there are considerable complexities associated with reported reserves and an absence of meaningful data on resources. Again, existing estimates of availability for the PV market are reviewed. This alsoreveals considerable variation within the literature and the use of a wide a range of assumptions upon which to base resource availability.

The paper concludes that there is no immediate cause for concern about availability of either indium or tellurium. PV occupies a small fraction of current markets and there is evidence of considerable potential to increase the extraction of both metals because a sizeable proportion of the material potentially available from primary metal extraction is not currently utilised. Moreover, there is potential to increase recycling of products containing indium or tellurium, for example from flat screens. However, the scale of the roll out of PV ~ vi ~ envisaged in some scenarios could imply a large expansion in the demand for indium and tellurium. There is no reason to believe that this is not feasible, however adequate data on reserves and resources do not exist. Resource estimates are not available and simplistic assumptions such as using current production or crustal abundance to estimate potential supply cannot provide any meaningful insight into future production. A scenario approach that links production to primary metals is appropriate. We conclude that considerable further research is needed to characterise indium and tellurium resources and the economic feasibility of expanding production.

The paper examines demand for lithium and neodymium from the EV industry. Lithium is used in Li-Ion EV batteries and neodymium is used in permanent magnets in electric motors and wind turbine generators. Global demand scenarios for EVs vary widely, though all anticipate a considerable growth in the EV market over the coming decades, driven largely by decarbonisation goals.

The paper then examines wind turbines, another low carbon use of neodymium. Again global demand for wind turbines and estimates of future material intensity are key to understanding future demand. It is also important to estimate the number of turbines using permanent magnet designs, since generators without permanent magnets are in common use. Decarbonisation goals are predicted to drive demand for wind turbines in the future, with several studies agreeing that future manufacturing of turbines will increase significantly. Based on this analysis, demand for neodymium from wind turbines could be between 600 and 6,000 tonnes per year by 2050.

Policy makers and industry are increasingly concerned over the availability of certain materials key to the manufacture of low carbon technologies. The literature addressing this topic includes reports termed criticality assessment that aim to quantify the relative criticality of a range of materials. In this study we examine the methodologies underpinning these criticality assessments, and attempt to normalise and compare their results. This process identified a list of 10 metals or metal groups for which average normalised scores are presented, along with maximum and minimum scores to indicate the range of uncertainty. We find that criticality assessment methodologies diverge significantly, making comparison difficult. This leads to apparently wide uncertainty in results. We also find that in order to achieve comparability within studies, authors typically rely on simple metrics for which data is available for all metals considered. This leads to some compromises which affect results. Finally we suggest that, given these uncertainties and methodological difficulties, criticality assessments are best used to highlight materials or technologies of particular interest, which should then be further examined in isolation, to improve insight and accuracy.

The reason for producing this note is that two distinct strands of thought can be found in the literature on how to conceptualise the costs associated with any additional capacity required to maintain reliability when intermittent generators are added to an electricity network. The first does not explicitly define a system reliability cost rather it assesses the overall change in system costs that arises from additional capacity (Dale et al 2003). This approach can be used to derive system reliability cost if combined with an assessment of the impact on load factors of incumbent stations when new generators are added (see footnote 2). The second includes an explicit system reliability cost. This approach requires that we make an assumption about the nature of the plant that provides back up(Ilex and Strbac 2002). Both approaches should arrive at the same change in total system costs.

The issue: a need to better understand the models that inform demand-side energy policy-making

Under the UK Climate Change Act 2008, the government is legally bound to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 80% by 2050 relative to 1990 levels.

Historically, the focus of energy policy in the UK has been on supply-side policies, such as decarbonisation of electricity generation through greater use of low carbon technologies like wind and solar. Increasingly, however, demand-side energy policies are being recognised as having important contributions to make to achieving emission reduction targets, through reducing energy demand or by making energy demand more flexible and compatible with variable renewable energy sources. Such demand-side policies can seek to promote a wide range of technologies and behaviours, for example improved buildinginsulation, reduction in the use of energy intensive materials and increases in teleworking to reduce commuting.

To fully realise the potential of demand-side energy policies, it is important that they can be adequately represented in quantitative energy models, because such models play an important role in informing UK energy policy. However, we do not currently have a good understanding of how well the different energy models that inform UK government energy policy represent energy demand and demand-side energy policies.

Therefore we have undertaken a Rapid Evidence Assessment (a constrained form of systematic review) to examine the energy models that have informed energy policy documents published by the UK government between 2007 and 2017. The overarching question this review seeks to address is:

How suitableare the energy models used toinform UK government energy policy for exploring the full range of contributions that demand-side energy policies can make to climate change mitigation?

Main findings: strengths and weaknesses in existing modelling

Our Rapid Evidence Assessment reveals that the core strength of current energy modelling is the detailed representation of technologies, with many models featuring information on hundreds of potential technological options for increasing energy efficiency. Although uncertainties exist around these technological options, these models allow us to gain a coherent and realistic understanding of how different combinations of technologies could satisfy our future energy service demands under different low-carbon scenarios.

However, the modelling landscape reveals two key limitations with regard to the representationof non-technological drivers of energy demand:

• Firstly, economic, social and behavioural drivers of energy demand, such as thermostat settings, are rarely explicitly included within the models. As a result, changes in such drivers risk being overlooked as potential levers of climate change mitigation. In addition, the economic, social and behavioural assumptions that are included into the models are often not presented in a transparent manner.
• Secondly, while many of the models provide a wealth of detail on different technological options, they are not well-equipped to model how behavioural, social and economic changes impact on the use of technology. This makes it difficult to investigate how technological change comes about and how it could be steered into the right direction using different policy instruments. In many models, the uptake of different technological options is specified exogenously by the user, or is determined within the model by cost optimisation, which does not reflect the many non-cost factors influencing technology diffusion.

Key recommendations for future modelling

• Develop consistent and transparent processes for estimating and presenting the fixed inputs to energy models, such as energy service demands and socio-economic drivers.
• Quantify the potential of demand-side policies and include them as explicit options in energy models to make such policies more visible.
• Improve the representation of economic, social and behavioural processes in energy models where feasible and useful. This endeavour can build on existing research in the academic literature, which is currently not well represented in policydevelopment.
• Research further the potential implications of interactions between different drivers of energy demand and make sure they are consistent. An example of such an interaction would be the impact that a modal shift from cars to cycling would have on the growth and energy demand of the automotive industry.

This UKERC working paper reviews the literature on modelling natural gas demand and supply. This includes modelling natural gas markets in isolation, and as part of its role in the wider energy system.

This review is part of the work on a new, global gas model at the Institute for Sustainable Resources at University College London, through a UKERC PhD Studentship. The focus of the new model is on global gas production and trade, and its coupling with the TIMES Integrated Assessment model at University College London (TIAM-UCL) to represent gas demand.

Trade-offs: simplifying complexity without diverging from reality

The main section of this working paper provides a review of existing methods which model both supply chain and demand dynamics of natural gas (Part 1: recoverable volumes and corresponding costs of natural gas; Part 2: wider energy-system models; Part 3: natural gas market models). As with any modelling, it was found that there is always a trade-off between necessary simplifications, and the uncertainties and complexities which surround energy-economic-environmental systems.

In Part 1, this paper reviews a range of studies that have estimated recoverable volumes of natural gas. This includes both deterministic (e.g. a single point estimates of natural gas) and stochastic (e.g. probabilistic estimates including ranges of uncertainty) modelling methods, and the strengths and limitations of the approaches employed. The overall conclusion is that some level of probabilistic assessment is required when estimating recoverable volumes of natural gas and the cost range of extraction, particularly given the huge uncertainties inherent in the development of these resources (techno-economic, geological, environmental).

A key contribution of this review, in Part 2, is how natural gas is represented in energy system and integrated assessment models. This represents how gas supply and demand dynamics are also driven by wider developments in energy and environmental systems. Standalone natural gas models, described in Part 3, include gas market complexities. These have more disaggregated time-slices/temporal horizons in order to capture seasonality and the interaction between market agents. However, there is a trade-off between the temporal disaggregation, and the overall scope of the model. In short, the decision to take gas consumption from TIAM-UCL yields the benefit of a whole systems approach in the long-run, whilst limiting seasonal disaggregation in the short-term.

Introducing a new bottom-up global natural gas production and trade model

In section III, the paper introduces a new natural gas production and trade model, which is linked to TIAM-UCL. This linkage includes an aggregation of supply cost curves from a field-level gas volume and cost database, into the regions in TIAM-UCL. The gas model is able to account for aspects of gas markets which TIAM-UCL does not have in its architecture; e.g. fiscal regimes, take-or-pay contracts, price indexation.

Given the proprietary nature of cost data for natural gas extraction, a linear regression model was used to assign supply costs (the capital and operating expenditures required to get the gas out of the ground) to gas fields where no public information was available. This gas model aims to provide insights by quantifying various parameters which determine supply costs for individual natural gas fields, both developed and undeveloped; these include water depths, reservoir depths, the levels of hydrogen sulphide or carbon dioxide, and assumed risks to investment (e.g. due to location, political conditions, etc.).

The combination of the two models is intended to model scenarios, providing new insights into future natural gas price formation mechanics and longer-term policy developments which could alter/influence supply and demand.

The paper investigates the importance of governance for energy system change and specifically investigates some of the areas where the UKs net zero target implies significant infrastructure change or expansion, namely in industry and associated with buildings and transport.

Despite these benefits, barriers such as regulatory gaps, cultural inertia within the construction sector, and lack of consumer awareness hinder MMCs widespread adoption. In light of current challenges, the study underscores the imp

A multi-time period combined gas and electricity network optimisation model was developed. The optimisation model takes into account the varying nature of gas flows, network support facilities such as gas storage and the power ramping characteristics of electricity generation units. The combined optimisation is performed from an economic viewpoint, minimising the costs associated with gas supplies, linepack management, gas storage operation, electricity generation and load shedding. It is demonstrated on two case studies, a simple example, and on the GB network.

This report is the first in the UKERC Energy 2050 project series. It focuses on a range of low carbon scenarios underpinned by energy systems analysis using the newly developed and updated UK MARKAL elastic demand (MED) model. Such modelling is designed to develop insights on a range of scenarios of future energy system evolution and the resultant technology pathways, sectoral trade-offs and economic implications. Long-term energy scenario-modelling analysis is characterised by deep uncertainty over a range of drivers including resources, technology development, and behavioural change and policy mechanisms. Therefore, subsequent UKERC Energy 2050 reports focus on a broad scope of sensitivity analysis to investigate alternative scenarios of energy system evolution. In particularly, these alternative scenarios investigate different drivers of the UKs energy supply and demand, and combine the twin goals of decarbonisation and energy system resilience. Future analysis includes the use of complementary macro-econometric and detailed sectoral energy models.

This working paper explores what people may need to know, learn and have if aPersonal Carbon Allowances (PCA) scheme was implemented, and suggests ideas forpolicies, programmes and initiatives that could support them. A PCA scheme impliesthat individuals would have a personal budget of carbon credits, which they wouldneed to manage, to some extent, in order to stay within its limits, and in the bestcase scenario earn some money by selling not-needed carbon credits. Thus, thispaper looks at the budgeting process from the carbon account holders view pointand applies insights from how people budget under monetary and non-monetaryconstrains to the study of PCA. It also highlights related policy design issues.

The paper is composed of two sections. The first sets PCA in the policy contextalongside other existing and proposed emissions reduction policies. Next it explainsthe mechanisms through which PCA supposes to change energy demand behaviourand then describes the current discourse surrounding PCA in the UK. The secondsection lays out the rational for examining PCA through the lense of budgeting andpoints at questions arising from the concept of living within a carbon budget. It then discusses in detail the prerequisites for carbon budgeting, which include: setting the budgetary limits; knowing personalised carbon income and expenditure; having low carbon alternatives; having the opportunity to perform low carbon choices; receiving advice and support; and learning how to trade. This is followed by a short concluding section.

Personal carbon trading (PCT) is a proposed quantity-based policy instrument for reducing the carbon emissions emitted by individuals. The aim of the scheme would be to deliver guaranteed levels of carbon savings in successive years in an equitable way. A PCT scheme would set a total cap on all carbon emissions generated from the fossil fuel energy used by individuals within the home and for personal transport, including those emissions from air travel. In the UK these personal emissions account for approximately half of all carbon emissions. A PCT scheme would be part of an economy-wide emissions trading scheme.

The Policy Pathways to Justice in Energy Efficiency working paper addresses two key gaps in knowledge regarding justice in energy efficiency policy in the UK. Despite disabled people and low-income families with children being defined in policy as vulnerable to fuel poverty, there is very little evidence about how the needs of these groups are recognised or incorporated into policy decisions. There is alsono clear evidence on how energy efficiency policies actually affect these groups, and whether policy outcomes are consistent across the UK.

The research was undertaken by researchers at the University of York andACE Researchand was supported byDisability Rights UKandThe Childrens Society. One hundred and twenty-five households and practitioners were interviewed as part of the research. In addition to this working paper, acondensed policy guide is also available, as well as separate guides for practitioners who focus on theneeds of disabled people, andfamilies on low incomes.

Summary of findings

The research team found that disabled people and low-income families with children often had higher energy demands within the home compared to other households. These increased demands are often associated with keeping warm, additional laundry needs, and in some cases using energy intensive equipment such as dehumidifiers and nebulisers. These circumstances lead to both increased household energy costs and higher risks associated with disconnection and a drop in household temperature.

Despite these needs, and the intention of policy to support households in this position, interviewees described accessing information and advice about energy and energy efficiency as a minefield, high levels of mistrust in the energy sector, and finding it difficult to know where to go and which sources to trust.

The report reveals the delivery of energy efciency policy is variable and patchy, with vulnerable groups in greatest need not always eligible for support or receiving support which fails to reflect their additional needs. To improve access for vulnerable groups and to meet their needs more effectively, the report recommends there be a greater recognition of the needs of vulnerable groups, more consistent approaches across the UK and better cooperation with non-energy sectors.

Barriers to accessing fuel poverty support

The report identifies five key barriers to accessing vital fuel poverty support mechanisms and suggests ways in which access and outcomes can be improved for all.

• Current energy efciency programme design leads to an emphasis on meeting targets at the lowest cost the numbers game and there needs to be a greater emphasis on the positive impact of intervention to the household rather than a focus on least cost.
  
• Households in need are not always eligible and the mechanisms for nding households needs to improve, including greater access to quality data, data matching and data sharing to enable households to be targeted more effectively.
  
• Vulnerable customers often are not aware they are eligible for support and mechanisms for nding these people need to improve, together with work to improve the trustworthiness of the schemes promoted.
  
• Current programmes focus on technical improvements to buildings rather than the needs of vulnerable groups and there needs to be shift to understanding the needs of these people and how they engage with energy.
  
• The delivery of existing energy efficiency support programmes across the UK is patchy and Government should aim for consistent outcomes for households wherever they live.

The following analysis revisits the relationships between the reserve requirements, the capacity margins needed to maintain the reliability of supplies, the costs of intermittency, the capacity credit for intermittent generation, and several other quantities. It is not put forward as a substitute for full-blown modelling studies, but does provide a reminder of principles and an independent means of checking results. It rests on a few key parameters, principally the means, standard deviations and ranges of the frequency distributions of the various quantities. Whilst this is a simplification, it helps to make the underlying relationships more transparent and enables the analyst to explore the effects of changes in assumptions. It begins with a basic case and then relaxes the assumptions.

There are three questions which recur throughout the paper:

1. What are the required additions to reserves to maintain the reliability of supplies when intermittent generation is substituted for thermal generation? It is unquestionable that the margin will need to rise when the variance of thesupplies increases if supply reliability is to be maintained—but by how much? An alternative way of putting the question is what is the ‘capacity credit’ (defined below) that can be given to intermittent generation?
2. What is the associated increase in system costs that would result from building more wind and less thermal generation?
3.  At the project level, how can we compare the costs of a large wind farm say with the thermal alternative? To answer this, we need to know the answer to (1) above—how much extra ‘reserve’ or ‘backup’ capacity is required for the intermittent resource, and of course what its costs will be.

The paper does not answer questions as to what the optimum reserve margin should be or how it should be determined. There is a long debate on the role of markets and regulation for determining reserve margins which this paper does not get into. Suffice it to say that whatever policy position is taken: (a) in actuality there is at all times a reserve margin, which is the difference between available capacity and demand; (b) this quantity is of interest and needs to be monitored since when it declines the probability of losing load increases; (c) when for policy purposes estimates of the costs of introducing intermittent resources onto the system are being made it is necessary to compare like-with-like such that the costs of introducing them, including the costs of maintaining the reliability of supplies, can be compared with the costs of the alternatives.

This paper argues that reducing the impacts of aviation should be treated as a priority by those interested in averting climate change, and that the scale of reduction needed can only be achieved through demand restraint i.e. discouraging people from flying. Economic policy potentially has a key role to play in this process. The UK Government has the power to introduce a number of economic measures to complement the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, and these measures probably offer the best hope of starting to restrain demand in the immediate future.

Using biomass to provide energy services is one of the most versatile options for increasing the proportion of renewable energy in the existing system. This report reviews metrics used to compare alternative bio-energy pathways and identifies limitations inherent in the way that they are calculated and interpreted. It also looks at how companies and investors approach strategic decisions in the bio-energy area.

The work by Poortinga and colleagues (2013) has shown that British and Japanese publics have responded very differently to the Fukushima accident. However, the surveys included in the analyses were not specifically designed to examine the impacts of the Fukushima accident and contained different sets of questions. Comparisons could therefore only be made on a small number of items.

This new survey builds upon the previous work conducted by the authors of the study (Poortinga et al., 2006; Spence et al., 2010; Aoyagi et al., 2011; Demski et al., 2013) and examines British attitudes to nuclear power and climate change two years after the Fukushima accident. The British survey was coordinated with a similar survey in Japan allowing a detailed cross-national comparison of the long-term impacts of the Fukushima accident on public attitudes to nuclear power and climate change. The Japanese survey was conducted in February 2013 (Aoyagi, 2013).

This report describes the main findings of the British survey conducted in March 2013. The results are contrasted with previous British surveys where possible (i.e. Poortinga et al., 2006; Spence et al., 2010; Demski et al., 2013). Technical details of the previous surveys are provided in Box A. In the longer term, the data will be used for more detailed statistical analyses and cross-national comparisons with Japan.

The 2006 Energy Review stated that the Government intended to raise awareness of transport and climate change issues, and the approach would include, “developing initiatives on eco-safe driving”.1 This proposed Quick Hit would see energy-efficient driving, also known as eco-driving or eco-safe driving, incorporated into the practical driving test, to reinforce advice currently covered by the theory test. Furthermore, it would inform drivers about alternative fuels and efficient vehicle technology, and incorporate this new information into the theory test. While knowledge of issues such as alternative fuels would not affect the ability of a person to drive, driving lessons and the driving test present a suitable opportunity to raise awareness amongst drivers and positively influence their choices before habits are formed.

This Quick Hit outlines how limiting the speed limit on motorways and dual carriageways to 60 mph or even merely better enforcing the current 70 mph limit could be one of the most equitable, cost-effective and potentially popular routes to achieve reductions in carbon emissions. If implemented, it could also have the potential to slow traffic growth and influence the vehicle market with further carbon reduction benefits, in addition to optimising current road network capacity and bringing significant safety benefits.

The replacement of incandescent lamps with LED (light emitting diode) lights in traffic signals in the UK could reduce the demand for electricity by up to 70%. Additionally, the move could also offer substantial savings to highway authorities through less frequent replacement of lamps and, consequently, staff maintenance time.

The UK has an estimated 420,000 traffic and pedestrian signal heads, installed and managed by individual highway authorities. Each head contains two, three, or four 50W lamps, although for the majority of the time only one of these is lit up. These traffic signals currently use an estimated 101.7m kWh of electricity per year and cause the release of nearly 14,000 tonnes of carbon (around 50,000 tonnes of CO2). The number of traffic signals in the country continues to grow at around 3% a year – Transport for London estimated an increase of 17.5% in the capital alone between 2000 and 2005.

Quick Hits are a series of proposed initiatives developed by the Demand Reduction theme of the UK Energy Research Centre (www.ukerc.ac.uk). They are intended to make a useful contribution towards reducing carbon emissions by 2010, and are designed to be relatively easy for the Government or local authorities to implement. Legislative changes or expenditure needed would be small in nature, hence the title Quick Hits.

Car-sharing using car clubs is a successful way of reducing vehicle usage and ownership amongst those who join, and has proven to be effective in several countries. This proposed Quick Hit would reduce carbon emissions from vehicle use through the creation of a coherent, national network of car clubs, ensuring that in the long term there is at least one in every large town and city in the UK. Data collected from existing car clubs suggests that me

The aim of this paper is to describe three multi-sectoral modelling techniques, and to show how these modelling approaches have been used to quantify the economic impact of renewable energy and energy efficiency developments.

The three techniques are Input-Output (IO), Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) and Macroeconometric studies. Each is firstly detailed in a separate section. In each section we describe the nature and operation of the technique, and identify different types and sub-types (where appropriate). We then consider the data requirements of these modelling approaches and finally discuss what might be considered the strengths and weaknesses of each approach. For each modelling approach we pay particular attention to the ways in which the employment effects are estimated, as employment is arguably the most tangible economic variable.

After sections on each of the three modelling techniques, we address some general questions about their applicability and validity of each approach for understanding the quantitative impacts of renewable energy and energy efficiency improvements.

This Consultation Response to the Energy and Climate Change Committee's Inquiry on Electricity Demand Side Measures explores whether the Governments and Ofgems current proposals for incentivising the development of demand reduction measures are enough to ensure the potential energy savings outlined in the 2012 Energy Efficiency Strategy are achieved.

This Consultation Response to the House of Lords Science and Technology Committee Inquiry into the resilience of electricity infrastructure.In this response we discuss whether theUKs electricity system is resilient to peaks in consumer demand and sudden shocks, andhow the costs and benefits of investing in electricity resilience are assessed and decisions made.

This paper is the second in a series which aims to provide insights into the use of scenarios for informing low carbon energy policy. Building on insights from a historical overview of strategic scenario planning in the first working paper of the series (Hughes, 2009), this paper reviews selected recent UK and international low carbon energy scenarios, analyses their strengths and weaknesses, and offers some suggestions for improving the strategic power of future UK low carbon energy scenarios.

This paper adopts the broad characterisation proposed in Hughes (2009), that scenario thinking is the use of the imagination to consider possible alternative future situations, as they may evolve from the present, with a view to improving immediate and near-term decision making. The three key objectives of scenario thinking identified in Hughes (2009), improving protective decision making, improving proactive decision making, and consensus building, are also highlighted.

The paper notes that from the approaches and methodologies outlined in Hughes (2009), two approaches in particular have been strongly drawn upon in the construction of low carbon energy scenarios. The first is the derivation of broadly consistent future scenarios from 'high level trends', sometimes represented within a '2x2 matrix'. The second is the concept of 'backcasting' from a normatively constructed future end point. This observation informs a three-fold typology for reviewing the low carbon energy scenarios in this paper:

• Trend driven studies: developed around high level trends
• Technical feasibility studies: demonstrate technical feasibility of end points, sometimes 'backcasting' from them
• Modelling studies: complex quantitative models are used to generate results, often operating within exogenous emission constraints

Smart grids are expected to play a central role in any transition to a low-carbon energy future, and much research is currently underway on practically every area of smart grids. However, it is evident that even basic aspects such as theoretical and operational definitions, are yet to be agreed upon and be clearly defined. Some aspects (efficient management of supply, including intermittent supply, two-way communication between the producer and user of electricity, use of IT technology to respond to and manage demand, and ensuring safe and secure electricity distribution) are more commonly accepted than others (such as smart meters) in defining what comprises a smart grid.

It is clear that smart grid developments enjoy political and financial support both at UK and EU levels, and from the majority of related industries. The reasons for this vary and include the hope that smart grids will facilitate the achievement of carbon reduction targets, create new employment opportunities, and reduce costs relevant to energy generation (fewer power stations) and distribution (fewer losses and better stability). However, smart grid development depends on additional factors, beyond the energy industry. These relate to issues of public acceptability of relevant technologies and associated risks (e.g. data safety, privacy, cyber security), pricing, competition, and regulation; implying the involvement of a wide range of players such as the industry, regulators and consumers.

The above constitute a complex set of variables and actors, and interactions between them. In order to best explore ways of possible deployment of smart grids, the use of scenarios is most adequate, as they can incorporate several parameters and variables into a coherent storyline. Scenarios have been previously used in the context of smart grids, but have traditionally focused on factors such as economic growth or policy evolution. Important additional socio-technical aspects of smart grids emerge from the literature review in this report and therefore need to be incorporated in our scenarios. These can be grouped into four (interlinked) main categories: supply side aspects, demand side aspects, policy and regulation, and technical aspects. A brief overview of each is provided.

In this working paper, we look at the economic, energy, and emissions consequences for the UK of non-energy or invisible energy policies (Cox et al, 2019). These are policies which, while not explicitly energy-focused, impact on energy use and emissions. We examine this from a sectoral perspective, looking at differences in consequences when policies are successful in raising exports for individual sectors of the UK economy.

The central purpose of this paper is to extend that previous work and reflect the detailed industrial focus of the UK Government's Sector Deals' by looking below the aggregate level. We wish to focus on the incremental changes in economic activity, territorial industrial emissions and energy use (as well as the indicators of emissions- and energy-intensity of GDP) that could arise from success in increasing exports in specific industrial sectors. The opportunities and challenges for the UK to benefit at a sectoral level from international activity in low carbon sectors is the focus of work by Carvalho and Fankhauser (2017). That work does not however examine the consequences of achieving export growth at the sectoral level, or the quantitative scale of such impacts, or any trade-off's between successes in different low carbon sectors.

By looking these factors we can identify whether it may be possible to target export policies at specific sectors to stimulate greener growth, i.e. positive impacts on economic indicators with (desirable) reductions in energy use and/or emissions. While we might expect that such sectors could include those with lower energy and emissions per unit of output, or smaller links to energy-using sectors, the full (economic and environmental) system-wide consequences of increasing exports at the sectoral level can be examined using an appropriately detailed CGE model of the UK. Specifically, we are interested in the following question: are there differences in the consequences for economic, energy and emissions indicators when policies are successful in raising exports for individual sectors of the UK economy?

What mix of generation will provide the cheapest total system cost for the GB electricity system after the 30 minute balancing requirement is met, while still meeting carbon reduction targets? Keith Bell, Scottish Power Professor of Smart Grids, University of Strathclyde, and Graeme Hawker, Research Associate, University of Strathclyde, argue there is no simple answer given that calculating costs is next to impossible due to uncertainties around such factors as storage and demand-side management.

Emerging from a placement at the Office for Product Safety and Standards, UK, the study underscores the importance of reflexive, flexible, inclusive and interactive policymaking that integrates public engagement and considers the intricate relationships between social, technologic

One of the objectives of the research under the UKERC’s quantitative modelling effort is the review and development of models of energy use by the domestic sector. The aim of this paper is to describe version 3 of the Domestic Energy Sub-model, which models household energy use in the UK as a sub-model within the UK multisectoral dynamic model of the UK energy-environment-economy (E3) system maintained by Cambridge Econometrics MDM-E3. The paper does so by describing the structure of the model and development of different versions of the sub-model, with an outline of the appliances and thermal characteristics of domestic buildings included.

The paper then goes on to explain how households use thermal energy services and describes the characteristics of the buildings and appliances which are included in the model. Finally the paper describes the data collection methodology used to update the model’s dataset from 1995 to 2004 for version 3. Such a description allows the reader to see how the model is structured and how the results of the model are generated, based on the historical data.

It argues that, since its emergence in the UK in the late 1990s, community energy has grown through finding opportunities for smaller scale, decentralised energy activities in the UKs highly centralised energy system. The combination of development of renewable energy technologies, and the launch of the governments Feed-In Tariff Scheme (FITS) in 2010, produced a boom in the sector, especially around solar electricity generation.

Recent cuts to FITS rates and other policy changes place community energy at a crossroads. Some renewables activity will continue, but groups are exploring a wide range of activities, partnerships, and business models. We are engaging with the sector around outputs from our research, which include a survey and case studies, to co-develop recommendations and pathways for the future.

The objective of this report is to review aspects of existing regulation, electricity market arrangements and industry practice in order to identify barriers in making the transition to a sustainable network.

• As a first step, the renewable generating capacity that will be required to commission in order to deliver the electricity sector’s contribution to the UK’s renewable obligations is considered, together with that conventional capacity that might need to be replaced in order to maintain traditional levels of security.
• The report then goes on to consider the need for that generation to obtain early access (i.e. before the construction of necessary transmission capacity) to electricity markets and the associated need for access reform. Related electricity market-related issues including the impact of congestion pricing and the potential need to explicitly reward generation capacity are discussed, as is the prospect of having to curtail wind output due to energy constraints as renewable deployment increases.
• The scale of transmission investment needed to deliver the UK’s renewable obligations is then considered, together with the role of regulation in ensuring that investment is efficient.
• Finally, the report goes on to consider current transmission network charging methodology and the issue of whether that methodology constitutes a barrier to the deployment of renewable generation discussed.

The rebound effect results in part from an increased consumption of energy services following an improvement in the technical efficiency of delivering those services. This increased consumption offsets the energy savings that may otherwise be achieved and potentially undermines the rationale for policy measures to encourage energy efficiency.

The nature, definition and magnitude of the rebound effect are the focus of longrunning disputes with energy economics. This paper brings together previous theoretical work to provide a rigorous definition of the rebound effect, clarify key conceptual issues and highlight the consequences of various assumptions for empirical estimates of the effect. The focus is on the direct rebound effect for a single energy service - indirect and economy-wide rebound effects are not discussed.

Beginning with Khazzoom’s original definition of the rebound effect, we expose the limitations of three simplifying assumptions on which this definition is based.

First, we argue that capital costs form an important part of the total cost of providing energy services and that the higher cost of energy efficient conversion devices will reduce the magnitude of the rebound effect in many instances.

Second, we argue that energy efficiency should be treated as an endogenous variable and that empirical estimates of the rebound effect may need to apply a simultaneous equation model to capture the joint determination of key variables.

Third, we explore the implications of the opportunity costs of time in the production of energy services and highlight the consequences for energy use of improved ‘time efficiency’, the influence of time costs on the rebound effect and the existence of a parallel rebound effect with respect to time.

Each of these considerations serves to highlight the difficulties in obtaining reliable estimates of the rebound effect and the different factors that need to be controlled for. We discuss the implications of these findings for econometric studies and argue that several existing studies may overestimate the magnitude of the effect.

This report has been produced by the UK Energy Research Centres Technology and Policy Assessment (TPA) function. The TPA was set up to address key controversies in the energy field through comprehensive assessments of the current state of knowledge. It aims to provide authoritative reports that set high standards for rigour and transparency, while explaining results in a way that is useful to policymakers.

This report precedes a TPA study of some of the key issues which face the deployment of bio-energy resources in the period to 2050. The objective of this report was to review existing estimates of the UK resource base and identify the most important assumptions and uncertainties affecting estimates of the domestic resource potential. It was envisaged that this would inform the scope of the subsequent bio-energy TPA. A secondary objective was to assist DECC develop bio-energy route maps, promised under the UKs 2009 Low Carbon Transition Plan.

This study investigates how an increase in exports (a key pillar in the UK Industrial Strategy) could impact energy and industrial policy by comparing two types of energy-economy models.

Achieving the targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions set out in the UK Climate Change Act will require a significant transformation in the UK's energy system.

At the same time, the government is pursuing a new UK Industrial Strategy, which aims to improve labour productivity, create high-quality jobs and boost exports across the UK.

The economic and the energy systems in the UK are tightly linked and so policies adopted in one area will produce spillover effects to the other.

To achieve the objectives set out in the two strategies it is therefore vital to understand how the policies in the energy system will affect economic development and vice versa.

Our study contributes to this by investigating how an increase in exports (a key pillar in the UK Industrial Strategy) could impact energy and industrial policy.

We address this question by systematically comparing the results of two types of energy-economy models of the UK, a computable general equilibrium model (CGE) and a macroeconometric (ME) model.

In both models we analyse a stimulus to demand from an increase in exports arising from a successful export strategy as motivated by the UK Industrial Strategy.

Main findings

The qualitative results of the export stimulus are similar across all models in that GDP and employment are always stimulated. In this sense, the results are reassuring for the UK’s Industrial Strategy that emphasises export promotion.

However, the models also find that total energy use and CO₂ emissions increase, and so does the energy intensity and emissions intensity of GDP.

The increase in CO₂  emissions occur because the study identifies the energy and CO₂ impacts of an export shock with other things remaining unchanged. Therefore the models do not simultaneously incorporate the UK carbon budgets or policies to support energy efficiency and decarbonisation of energy supplies.

However, our analysis reveals the likely adjustment of energy and climate policies to counteract the increase in CO₂ and energy intensity that may result from export promotion. It therefore emphasises the need to complement UK industrial policies with appropriate action on energy use and carbon emissions to meet statutory carbon targets set by the Climate Change Act (2008).

The results highlight the interdependence of the energy and economic systems. They show that there are benefits to coordinating strategic initiatives aimed at stimulating economic activity with those aimed at tackling carbon emissions, as envisaged in the UK’s Clean Growth Strategy.

The wider impacts of energy policy on the macro-economy are increasingly recognised in the academic and policy-oriented literatures. Additionally, the interdependence of energy and economy implies that a (policy) change in the non-energy system impacts on the energy system. However, such spillovers on the energy system have not been extensively researched. We begin by analysing the impacts of export promotion policies - a key element of the UKs Industrial Strategy - on the energy system and energy policy goals. As the impacts of such policies are, in large part, transmitted via their effects on the economy, we adopt a computable general equilibrium model - UK-ENVI - that fully captures such interdependence. Our results suggest that an across-the-board stimulus to exports increases total energy use significantly. This does not come directly through energy exports, but indirectly through the energy sectors linkages to other sectors. Export led growth therefore impacts on energy use - and significantly so. This in turn is likely to have an adverse impact on emission targets. Policy makers should be aware of the fact that a successful implementation of the Industrial Strategy may create significant tensions with the UKs Clean Growth Strategy, for example, and with the goals of energy policy more generally. The importance of this effect will in practice depend upon: the mix of goods and services that are exported (an issue that we shall address once the export strategy is published); the success of low-carbon policies. Ultimately, a knowledge of the nature and scale of these spillover effects of economic policies on the energy system creates the potential for more effective and efficient policy making

The overall objective of this research was to determine whether the operation of the CRAGs movement, and the experiences of individuals involved, can offer any useful information about the process of individual/household level carbon footprint reductions, the psychological effects of having a carbon allowance and trading system, and therefore any issues for consideration in the design of a Personal Carbon Trading policy. The specific aims were therefore:

• to obtain factual information about CRAGs, such as details of the carbon allowances set, accounting procedures and trading systems;
• to learn about the experiences of individuals involved, such as whether they have made behavioural changes and cut their CO2 emissions, and if so how, what they have found easy or difficult in their attempts to live a lower-carbon lifestyle;
• to elicit the opinions of CRAG members on their motivations for involvement in the movement, on personal carbon trading, and on the benefits and limitations of CRAGs;
• to attempt to discover what role, if any, being part of a group plays in demand reduction, given that the behavioural changes themselves are at the individual/household level.

The Chancellor of the Exchequer said this week that he will be looking carefully at the functioning of the retail energy market. In the latest UKERC working paper, Nick Eyre, University of Oxford, and Matthew Lockwood, University of Exeter, examine the issues in detail.

This UKERC scoping note, written by University of Sussex's Emily Cox, Sarah Royston and Jan Selby, offers a review of existing academic research on the impact of non-energy policies on energy systems; and proposes a future research agenda on this topic.

A 500MW interconnector between Ireland and the UK is at the proposal stage. In the latest UKERC working paper, Joseph Dutton, UKERC Researcher and Associate Research Fellow, University of Exeter, examines the institutional and regulatory tensions that could yet derail the project.

Energy Efficient Scotland (EES) is a large scale energy efficiency improvement programme to be implemented in Scotland. Over a 20-year period, currently scheduled to start in 2020, an amount in excess of 10billion is planned to be directed to the improvement of the energy efficiency in domestic and non-domestic buildings.

Funding for energy efficiency projects will come not only from the Scottish Government but also private interest-free and low interest loans as well as the successor(s) to the Energy Company Obligation (ECO). Aside from directing investment funds to the Scottish economy, promotion and support of energy efficiency through programmes such as EES, is one of the few instruments at the Scottish Governments disposal to conduct energy policy, especially on the energy demand side.

EES was officially announced in May 2018 with the publication of the EES Route Map. At that time the UK was already in the process of leaving the European Union: commonly referred to as Brexit.

Brexit, regardless of its final shape (which is currently unknown), is expected to affect policies in multiple ways including limitations to EU funds, skilled labour movement restrictions and increased import prices to name a few examples (among the potential impacts highlighted by different studies, reported in a 2018 Institute for Government report ). The magnitude and the exact nature of any impacts will be affected by the exact form that Brexit will have. In this shifting socio-economic landscape, EES will undoubtedly be affected in a range of ways.

In this working paper,we explore the funding limitations that Brexit could introduce to EES. Specifically, we identify two EES funding mechanisms that are likely to be affected; government-issued grants and privately-provided loans. For different reasons, these mechanisms are of paramount importance in order to achieve the EES goals as specified in the EES Route Map.

This paper comprises a review of technology roadmaps on sustainable energy use for transport, including road, rail, shipping and aviation. The paper summarises the environmental impacts of ‘renewable’ energy use for transport and the advances in knowledge and technology required to mitigate negative environmental impacts and to ensure environmental sustainability. It will assess the extent to which these issues are addressed by roadmaps from both Europe and North America (roadmaps are indicated by number in parenthesis) and will highlight omissions and apparent gaps in knowledge.

The analysis provides an indication of key areas of public acceptability relating to whole energy system change, and offers insights into the factors that mediate and underpin views on transitions. Understanding the connections, associations and contextual issues that underlay public perspectives offers an important means for thinking through potential difficulties and opportunities in achieving major system change.

This report is structured around ten cross-cutting analytic themes which are interlinked.

This working paper is an update to our November 2021 briefing paper: Risk and investment in zero-carbon electricity markets.

This Working Paper has been motivated by the growth of distributed energy resources (DER) on the electricity system in Britain, i.e. generation, storage and flexible demand that is connected at distribution network voltages, and the consultation published by Ofgem and BEIS in November 2016 on the subject of electricity system flexibility. It aims to give a very basic and rapid introduction to some of the issues and their origins.

The transport sector remains at the centre of any debates around energy conservation, exaggerated by the stubborn and overwhelming reliance on fossil fuels by its motorised forms, whether passenger and freight, road, rail, sea and air.

The very slow transition to alternative fuel sources to date has resulted in this sector being increasingly and convincingly held responsible for the likely failure of individual countries, including the UK, to meet their obligations under consecutive international climate change agreements.

Electrification of transport is largely expected to take us down the path to a zero carbon future (CCC, 2019; DfT, 2018). But there are serious concerns about future technology performance, availability, costs and uptake by consumers and businesses. There are also concerns about the increasing gap between lab and real world performance of energy use, carbon and air pollution emissions. Recently, the role of consumer lifestyles has increased in prominence (e.g. IPCC, 2018) but, as yet, has not been taken seriously by the DfT, BEIS or even the CCC (2019).

Developed under the auspices of UKERC the Transport Energy Air pollution Model (TEAM) has been designed to address these concerns and uncertainties in exploring pertinent questions on the transition to a zero carbon and clean air transportation future.

TEAM is a strategic transport, energy, emissions and environmental impacts systems model, covering a range of transport-energy-environment issues from socio-economic and policy influences on energy demand reduction through to lifecycle carbon and local air pollutant emissions and external costs.

TEAM is a major update of UK Transport Carbon Model of 2010. To use the updated model for research purposes, please contact Christian Brand, noting that due to its size (the complete suite of modelling databases uses about 500MB of storage space) the model can only be made available by request.

The transport sector remains at the centre of any debates around energy conservation, exaggerated by the stubborn and overwhelming reliance on fossil fuels by its motorised forms, whether passenger and freight, road, rail, sea and air.

The very slow transition to alternative fuel sources to date has resulted in this sector being increasingly and convincingly held responsible for the likely failure of individual countries, including the UK, to meet their obligations under consecutive international climate change agreements.

Electrification of transport is largely expected to take us down the path to a zero carbon future (CCC, 2019; DfT, 2018). But there are serious concerns about future technology performance, availability, costs and uptake by consumers and businesses. There are also concerns about the increasing gap between lab and real world performance of energy use, carbon and air pollution emissions. Recently, the role of consumer lifestyles has increased in prominence (e.g. IPCC, 2018) but, as yet, has not been taken seriously by the DfT, BEIS or even the CCC (2019).

Developed under the auspices of UKERC the Transport Energy Air pollution Model (TEAM) has been designed to address these concerns and uncertainties in exploring pertinent questions on the transition to a zero carbon and clean air transportation future.

TEAM is a strategic transport, energy, emissions and environmental impacts systems model, covering a range of transport-energy-environment issues from socio-economic and policy influences on energy demand reduction through to lifecycle carbon and local air pollutant emissions and external costs.

TEAM is a major update of UK Transport Carbon Model of 2010. This report contains the detailed appendices relating to TEAM :

• Appendix A: Vehicle Stock Model Variables and Data Tables
• Appendix B: Direct Energy and Emissions Model Data Tables
• Appendix C: Life Cycle and Environmental Impacts Model further specifications

To use the model for research purposes, please contact Christian Brand, noting that due to its size (the complete suite of modelling databases uses about 500MB of storage space) the model can only be made available by request.

Bridging the gap between short-term forecasting and long-term scenario models, the UK Transport Carbon Model (UKTCM) is a strategic transport, energy, emissions and environmental impacts model, covering a range of transport-energy-environment issues from socio-economic and policy influences on energy demand reduction through to lifecycle carbon emissions and external costs.

Developed partly under the auspices of the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) the UKTCM can be used to develop transport policy scenarios that explore the full range of technological, fiscal, regulatory and behavioural change policy interventions to meet UK climate change and energy security goals.

The introduction of Electric Vehicles (EVs) into the passenger vehicle market has, in recent years, become viewed as a primary solution to the significant carbon emissions attributed to personal mobility. Moreover, EVs offer a means by which energy diversification and efficiency can be improved compared to the current system which is dominated by internal combustion engines powered by oil based fuels. The UK and EU Governments have played an active role in steering the development and market introduction of EVs. Policies have been formulated and introduced to engage the consumer by raising awareness of these alternative options, incentivise adoption through fiscal measures and establishing the necessary infrastructure. However, a great deal of uncertainty remains regarding the effectiveness of these policies and the viability of the EV technology in the mainstream automotive market.This paper investigates the prevalence of uncertainty concerning demand for EVs. This is achieved through the application of a conceptual framework which assesses the locations of uncertainty. UK and EU Government policy documents are assessed through a rapid evidence review alongside contributions from academia to determine how uncertainty has been reduced.

This assessment offers insights to decision makers in this area by evaluating the work done to date through a landscape analysis. Results from the analysis identified six different locations of uncertainty covering (1) consumer, (2) policy, (3) infrastructure, (4) technical, (5) economic and (6) social.

In the UK there are strong policy imperatives to transition toward low-carbon energy systems. The Carbon Plan (DECC, 2011) represents the current key policy document that sets out the UK Government’s proposals for energy system change necessary to meet the carbon budgets enshrined in the Climate Change Act (2008); within this document public attitudes and acceptability are identified as key uncertainties with regard to the development of future energy systems. In particular, it is highlighted that there is little agreement over how to transform the energy system in order to meet climate change targets.

In this paper, public acceptability is identified as an indeterminate form of uncertainty that presents particular challenges for policy making. We build on our existing research into public values for energy system change to explore how the outcomes of the project can be applied in thinking through the uncertainties associated with public perspectives. This work was undertaken as part of the UK Energy Strategies Under Uncertainty project.

The electricity sector faces a level of investment in the coming two decades far higher than the past two decades. It needs to renew its ageing generation fleet, and shift towards capital-intensive low-carbon forms of generation. Over the past few years, various organisations and commentators have suggested that the sector may be unable to deliver, questioning whether there will be a sufficient flow of money into the sector to finance these investments.

This report examines the evidence for these claims, looking at three key issues:

• The size of the gap between required and current levels of investment,
• The ability of energy companies to scale up their capital expenditures,
• The ability of financial institutions to provide the necessary funds, and the mechanisms by which they might do so.

The ‘energy system’ can refer to both the physical assets (i.e. the physical grid that connects power plants, power-stations, distribution centres, residential homes and industrial plants together) and also non-physical lines of communication that exist between the system actors (e.g. operators, regulators, consultants, academics, policy makers and ministers). The focus of this research is the latter and the development of a conceptual model to help practitioners transparently show, which techniques they use (and why) to assess risk and uncertainty in their decision-making.

Extensive work has been carried out on the characterisation of uncertainty to improve the transparency of decision processes. For example, scholars have shown the use of hierarchical models such as decision trees to illustrate how decisions collectively string together. Others have used techniques such as evidence-support logic to allow decision makers to represent how sufficient and dependent responses(s) to a supporting decision(s) are given the evidence base to support these decisions. Attempts have also been made to use agent-based simulations to represent the influence that personal and organisational features have on these measures of sufficiency and dependency for evidence. However, gaps still exist in the knowledge with regards to how practitioners account transparently for the techniques they use to assess risk and uncertainty when answering a decision. The conceptual model presented in this working paper addresses this by: 1) showing transparently what type of knowledge practitioners believe they require to answer their decisions; and 2) justifying which technique(s) they might use given the type of knowledge they believe exists to support their decision.

This Working Paper identifies techniques for managing uncertainty in the energy sector. This work was undertaken as part of the UK Energy Strategies Under Uncertainty project.

This research examines the impacts and uncertainties on ecosystem services (ES) and natural capital both within the UK and externally, relating to possible changes in power generation within the UK energy system.

It reviews the current state of evidence on the environmental impacts of generation and supply for nuclear, gas, onshore wind, offshore wind and biomass (domestically produced Miscanthus and Short Rotation Coppice as a feedstock for power generation) as these feature strongly in future energy mix scenarios through to 2030 presented in the 4th Carbon Budget. For natural gas there was also assessment of the potential consequences given wider adoption of carbon capture and storage (CCS) techniques and fracking.

The impacts on ecosystem services of each supply option were summarised in a series of matrices. Each matrix sought to describe the energy supply system under evaluation in terms of the life-cycle processes involved (rows) and their impacts on ecosystem services (columns). Life cycle stages were categorised as upstream (infrastructure provision), fuel cycle (extraction/production and processing of feedstock), operation (power production) and downstream (decommissioning). Twenty seven ecosystem services were classified as supporting (processes and functions), provisioning (nutrition, water, materials, energy), regulation and maintenance (wastes, flow; physical, chemical and biotic environment) and cultural (use and intrinsic value).

This paper aims to provide an overview of technology risk in the power generation sector, firstly by reviewing how technology assessment methods treat such risks, and secondly by reviewing some of the major risks facing the key low carbon generation technologies. The paper then aims to draw lessons about the extent to which our (in)ability to predict technological development outcomes has implications for energy policy.

This paper addresses three domains of risk:

• Techno-economic risks relate to attributes of individual technologies that have an impact on their economic performance. These include for example capital and operating costs, environmental and other externalities, build time, availability and utilisation rates, reliability and intermittency of outputs. Uncertainty in all of these parameters affects the financial viability of projects.
• Programmatic risks are sources of risk that are not techno-economic in nature, but nevertheless play an essential role in influencing the dynamics of individual technology development. These are wide-ranging in nature, and include the existence of appropriate innovation networks, political and regulatory support, social acceptability, as well as institutional, market and supply-chain structures to support scale-up and deployment.
• System integration risks relate to the performance of groups of technologies when combined together. Ultimately the security of the electricity system as a whole will depend on the robustness with which supply and demand can be matched under conditions of stress or shock. Because different generation technologies have different strengths and weaknesses, the risk exposure of the system as a whole is different from that of its component parts.

This Working Paper explores the uncertainties in energy demand in the residential heating sector in the UK. This paper presents new quantified scenarios for residential energy use in the UK to 2050. These address both factors that are exogenous to the energy system, such as population, but also some systemically different approaches to delivering residential heat.

This work was undertaken as part of the UK Energy Strategies Under Uncertainty project.

Meeting the 80% carbon emission reduction target by 2050 is likely to require heat related emissions of CO2 from buildings are near zero by 2050 and there is a 70% reduction in emissions from industry (from 1990 levels). This will require laying the foundations for these emission reductions by 2030. A review of the barriers and uncertainties associated with the transition to a low-carbon heat supply in the UK out to 2030 were explored. This work was commissioned as part of the UK Energy Research Centre’s ‘Energy strategy under Uncertainty’ project undertaken to synthesise evidence on the range and nature of the risks and uncertainties facing UK energy policy and the achievement of its goals to reduce carbon emissions, enhance energy security while ensuring affordability.

The UK power system experienced a period of significant and rapid expansion during the late 1980s and in the 1990s. Many power generation assets are now approaching the end of their useful life and need to be replaced as we decarbonise the overall energy system. Developments in distributed generation and other technologies open important questions as to whether the traditional approaches to development and operation of power systems are still adequate and whether the anticipated major re-investment in transmission and distribution networks could be avoided by adopting new technologies such as smart grids, smart meters and a greater emphasis on demand side participation.

High level research issues identified within the UKERC Energy Supply theme cover a number of areas, including:

• Aging infrastructure replacement strategies before failure - models and tools for condition monitoring - risk management of existing T&D infrastructure
• Energy security & system security
• Environmental sustainability reducing the impact of electricity production, transportation and use on the environment (strive to reduce greenhouse gases responsible for climate change) - need to incorporate climate change driven constraints into system planning and operation (EU renewables targets; 80% 2050 CO2 targets; Meeting UK carbon budgets will require large scale decarbonisation of the electricity sector by 2030)
• Integration of distributed generation including intermittent energy technologies & micro generation - what type of network architecture - reliability and power quality - communication and control aspects of networks - incorporation of demand response and demand side participation (impact of smart meters) - role of energy storage
• Incorporation of smart meters and smart grids (impact on demand and networks)
• Transmission (on- and offshore) and distribution network planning under uncertainty of intermittent renewable resources such as wind and the uncertainty of markets and regulatory policy
• Interaction between electricity and gas networks - Integrated network (multi energy vector) research and optimisation
• Encouraging network innovation and low carbon generation through regulation and market design
• Assessing the potential of heat networks
• Impact of greater European market/network integration (gas and electricity)

These projects are reviewed in this report and from these high level research issues, some of the key research challenges identified are summarised as follows:

• Identifying and quantifying the costsand benefits of community heating and energy systems
• Quantifying Costs and Benefits of Integrating UK and EU Energy Infrastructures
• Smart meters and demand side participation
• The role of gas in the UK energy system
• Resilience of gas systems
• Compatibility of energy market and climate objectives and risks in a post EMR world

The UKERC Systems Theme has played an important role in the development of the UK’s capacity to think systematically about the future of the energy system. Key tools in this process have been the development of scenarios, and the development and use of the MARKAL energy system model. This project reflects on scenarios and on the use and communication of MARKAL, with a view to informing future UKERC work. Specifically, the project conducted retrospective analysis of pre-UKERC energy scenarios for the UK (published from 1977-2002), examined the scenarios produced by the UKERC systems theme, and studied the use and communication of the UK MARKAL model.

The diversity of scenario methods and approaches developed within UKERC is valuable, and should be fostered further. Too narrow a range of techniques and teams developing scenarios would risk constraining the ability of UKERC to open up thinking to a wide range of possibilities, perspectives and framings, which history suggests is important. UKERC scenarios have tended to be dominated by futures in which mitigation goals are met, and in which scenario differences are driven by policy or technology, though there are of course exceptions. As UKERC Phase 3 begins, there is a case for reflecting further on the range and type of uncertainties addressed within energy system scenarios, and the diversity of tools and techniques used to generate them.

A core tool of the UKERC systems theme has been the UK MARKAL model. The research undertaken for this project indicates that MARKAL has generally been used and communicated appropriately, in part because of good working relationships between government analysts and UKERC researchers. There are also areas in which there is room for improvement, and UKERC Phase 3 provides an opportunity to learn the lessons from previous experience.

This report is part of a review of the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) Phase 2 research programme (2009-14). The review considers UKERC’s interdisciplinary energy research achievements; its strengths, weaknesses and lessons for the future. The review project is being carried out internally by staff from UKERC’s Research Coordination and Meeting Place teams.

The report presents the findings of an online survey of the UKERC research community and invited UKERC stakeholders, carried out in Q3 of 2013.

The UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) is funded under the Research Councils’ Energy Programme (RCEP) to carry out ‘whole-systems’ interdisciplinary energy research, and to act as a central hub for University-based energy research in the UK. UKERC was created in 2004 under a 5-year award from three Research Councils: the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) and Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC). A Phase 2 programme of work was supported by the same three funding bodies between May 2009 and April 2014. A third phase of UKERC research will start in May 2014.

This report presents the results of a research project which undertook an analysis of UKERC’s interdisciplinary energy research achievements: its strengths, weaknesses and lessons for the future. The review was carried out internally by staff from UKERC’s Research Co-ordination and Meeting Place teams. The project included a review of the existing literature on interdisciplinary energy research, a facilitated group discussion convened at UKERC’s Annual Assembly conference in July 2013 (n=15) , an online survey of the UKERC research community (conducted between July and September 2013) (n=90), and a number of semi-structured interviews with UKERC researchers, members of the wider energy research community and UKERC’s non-academic stakeholders (conducted between September 2013 and January 2014) (n=18).

The analysis has highlighted many of the benefits and challenges of interdisciplinary research found in the wider research literature – and in energy and environmental domains in particular. Interdisciplinary research faces particular and persistent operational and strategic barriers, for both programme managers and individual researchers. Successful interdisciplinary research involves recognising these barriers, and explicitly and reflexively taking them into account in programme commissioning, design and management, and the findings reported here highlight a number of opportunities for improved interdisciplinary methods and practices for next phase UKERC.

In an uncertain political and economic outlook for energy research, a commitment to independent, holistic and interdisciplinary research becomes ever more salient. Yet there are powerful transaction costs and barriers to interdisciplinary research, and the resonance of UKERCs experience with other similar research initiatives suggests that some rather well-reported challenges have yet to be adequately addressed.

This report presents the results of a project which reviewed UKERCs interdisciplinary research capacities and achievements, in terms of strengths, weaknesses and scope for improvement.The project included a review of the literature on interdisciplinary energy research, a review of the experiences of other similar interdisciplinary energy and climate change research initiatives in the UK, a facilitated group discussion, an online survey, and a number of semi-structured interviews. As well as this report, ongoing analysis of the project findings is linking the UKERC interdisciplinary experience to other developments in energy and climate change publicly-funded research, and to wider, more conceptually-informed issues in the interdisciplinary studies research literature.

One interpretation of the so-called Khazzoom-Brookes postulate is that all costeffective energy efficiency improvements will increase energy consumption above where it would be without those improvements. This is a counterintuitive claim for many people and requires strong supporting evidence if it is to gain widespread acceptance. The main conclusion from this review is that such evidence does not exist.

The dispute between optimists and pessimists over the future of global oil supply is underpinned by equally polarised disagreements over a set of more technical issues. Given the complexity and multi-dimensional nature of this topic, the existence of such disagreements is unsurprising. However, the situation is made worse by the inadequacy of the publicly available data and the scope this creates for competing views and interpretations. Improved data on individual fields could go a long way towards resolving such disagreements, but this seems unlikely to become available in the foreseeable future. Nevertheless, there is potential for increasing the degree of consensus in a number of areas and some progress has already been made. This report looks in more detail at two of these issues, namely:

• Decline rates: how rapidly the production from different categories of field is

The primary objective of this report is to describe and evaluate these different methods. Primary attention is paid to the methods based upon the extrapolation of historical trends, since these are widely used by the analysts concerned about global oil depletion. A second objective is to summarise and evaluate the estimates that have been produced for the global URR of conventional oil and to assess the implications for future oil production. Of particular interest is the relative plausibility of the optimistic and pessimistic estimates and the implications of both for medium-term oil supply.

This systematic review assesses the insight offered by thesemethodologies and critically evaluates their usefulness in projecting future oil production.It focuses on models that project future rates of oil production, and does not address themodeling or estimation of oil resources (e.g., ultimately recoverable resources, or URR).Models reviewed include the Hubbert methodology, other curve-fitting methods, simulations of resource discovery and extraction, detailed bottom-up models, and theoretical and empirical economic models of oil resource depletion. Important examples of published models are discussed, and the benefits and drawbacks of these models are outlined. I also discuss the physical and economic assumptions that serve as the basis for the studied models.

The models that have been reviewed for this study are described below. As far as possible, the same format has been used to describe each model, to facilitate comparison. Each description commences with a list of the more common basic input and output parameters, assumptions, definitions, components and data sources, and a statement of the type of model. Where appropriate, a brief comment on the model is included at this stage.

This report provides a detailed comparison and evaluation of fourteen contemporaryforecasts of global oil supply. The forecasts are based upon mathematical models ofvarious levels of complexity, embodying a wide range of modelling approaches andassumptions. In addition, the views of two oil companies on the likely adequacy of future oil supply are also summarised.

The aim of this Supplementary Note is to provide a graphical analysis of rebound effects and in particular to clarify the distinction between income and substitution effects for consumers and output and substitution effects for producers. This permits a clearer understanding of how rebound effects operate. The analysis draws upon standard neoclassical theory and is informed in particular by the insightful discussions of the rebound effect by Berkhout et al (2000) and Binswanger (2001).

This report examines the evidence for direct rebound effects that is available from studies that use econometric techniques to analyse secondary data. The focus throughout is on consumer energy services, since this is where the bulk of the evidence lies. The evidence relevant to direct rebound effects for producers is discussed separately in Technical Reports 3, 4 and 5.

This report clarifies the theoretical and methodological issues associated with such estimates, highlights the strengths and limitations of different approaches and summarises the available evidence for direct rebound effects for consumer energy services, paying particular attention to personal automotive transportation.

The elasticity of substitution between energy and other inputs is also a crucial variable for Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models of the macro-economy. The assumptions made for this variable can have a major influence on model results in general and estimates of the rebound effect in particular.

These observations suggest that a closer examination of the nature, determinants and typical values of elasticities of substitution between energy and other inputs could provide some useful insights into the likely magnitude of rebound effects in different sectors. This was the motivation for this report, which includes an in-depth examination of empirical estimates of the elasticity of substitution between energy and capital. However, the empirical literature on this subject is confusing and contradictory and more than three decades of empirical research has failed to reach ac

This report clarifies the strengths and weaknesses of CGE models for investigating economywide rebound effects, summarises the methodology, results and implications of eight existing studies and highlight priorities for future research.

This report summarises several of the significant issues associated with oil production and reserve data. A fuller understanding of these issues provides a necessary basis for an objective examination of global oil depletion. The report addresses the subject in four sections:

• Definitions used within oil industry data are often a subject of confusion.
• The Data Sources commonly available are also discussed.
• Reserve Estimates are the most contentious data reported by the oil industry.
• Finally Production Data is examined in Section 5.

The major inconsistency between reserve definitions is the choice of either a deterministic or probabilistic methodology. Within the class of deterministic definitions, the terms proved, probable and possible are widely used, but the use of this language is not standardised. Various descriptive terms are used which have very subjective interpretations. Within the class of probabilistic definitions there is wide agreement that 90%, 50% and 10% probability levels are appropriate to specify when reporting reserve estimates. Where deterministic terms such as proved are specified in a way allowing retrospective evaluation of estimates, the actual use of the term may not match the corresponding probabilistic definition.

There is a large physical uncertainty in our estimate of the oil originally in place due to the impossibility of measuring physicaland geological characteristics of the reservoir sufficiently accurately. Further uncertainty is introduced in estimating how much is both technically feasible and economically viable to extract, and again when aggregating results for individual fields to large areas.

Probabilistic estimates are therefore the most appropriate, because the definitions themselves include an acknowledgement of uncertainty. Probabilistic definitions do not lessen the intrinsic physical uncertainty in making an estimate but they can eliminate the possibility of deliberate or accidental bias. Because probabilistic definitions allow retrospective evaluation of the accuracy of reserve estimates, errors in estimation can be identified. This level of accountability is not achievable with deterministic definitions.

The term reserve growth refers to the increase in the estimates of ultimately recoverable resources (URR) of known fields over time. Reserve growth has contributed significantly more to reserve additions than new discoveries over the past decade and is expected to continue to do so in the future. But despite the crucial importance of reserve growth for future global oil supply, it remains both controversial and poorly understood. There is a great deal of work to be done before reliable estimates of future reserve growth can be made. This entails both the collation of adequate and reliable fieldlevel data from which to extrapolate future reserve growth, and updating and refining the very rough and preliminary forecast made by the US Geological Survey (USGS), which remains the most comprehensive study to date. 'Unpacking' the definition of reserve growth down to its constituent elements reveals that there are a number of definitional issues still to be resolved, in particular regarding the definition of reserves themselves and what categories of oil should be included. For the purposes of estimating reserve growth, it must be clearly defined what categories of oil are considered as their growth characteristics may be different.

This case study examines Combined Cycle Gas Turbine (CCGT) cost forecasts as well as coeval cost estimates and their underlying methodologies. It was prepared as part of a series of case studies designed to inform the UKERC TPA report ‘Presenting the Future: An assessment of future cost estimation methodologies in the electricity generation sector.’

The study is the result of an extensive review of scientific journal articles as well as industry and government reports; it also draws on key insights from innovation theory. The presentation structure is aligned to the three aims of the study, namely:

• To examine trends in contemporaneous cost estimates and in cost forecasts (Section 2);
• To understand the driving factors of those trends and the reasons for disparity between anticipated and actual costs (Section 3);
• To draw lessons and identify implications for cost estimation methodologies (Section 4).

Global aspirations for carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies are high. According to the International Energy Agency’s BLUE map scenario, achieving a 50% global greenhouse gas reduction by 2050 requires CCS-fitted plant to account for 17% of total electricity generation (IEA, 2009) 1. Yet, despite its central role in future energy scenarios, CCS is still yet to be demonstrated at utility scale. This means that CCS cost estimates are not informed by practical experience of building commercial-scale plant.

With high aspirations present and utility-scale empirical data absent, CCS technologies provide an interesting case study for analysing cost estimation methodologies. As such, this Working Paper examines global trends in current and future projections of CCS costs in the power sector, aiming to:

• Examine key trends in contemporary and forecast CCS cost estimates;
• Understand the drivers underlying these key trends; and
• Identify implications for CCS cost estimation methodologies.

A systematic literature review was conducted as a basis for analysing CCS cost estimates, with approximately fifty relevant academic articles and grey literature reports being identified (as detailed in the Appendix). The focus for analysis was estimates of levelised and capex costs for CCS. It is recognised that the decision to analyse these cost metrics – instead of CO2 avoidance costs – has implications for the relative attractiveness of coal CCS and gas CCS technologies. However, these metrics bring the benefit of enabling the comparison of CCS with other power sector technologies analysed in this Working Paper series (UKERC, 2011).

The paper begins by considering trends in current cost estimates for CCS (Section 2), and then progresses to examining future projections (Section 3). Following this, implications for CCS cost estimation methodologies are identified (Section 4).

This paper examines global cost trends in nuclear energy, both in terms of historical contemporary costs and also historical forecasts of future costs. The rationale for the study is to support and inform the UKERC TPA report ‘Presenting the Future: An assessment of future cost estimation methodologies in the electricity generation sector’. Approximately 75 academic articles and grey literature reports have been reviewed for this case study, both for data gathering and analysis purposes, in order to achieve three specific aims:

• Examine the key trends in contemporary cost estimates and future cost projections (Section 2);
• Understand the drivers underlying these key trends and the reasons for disparities between anticipated cost levels and actual outcomes (Section 3);
• Identify implications for cost estimation methodologies (Section 4).

Offshore wind is widely expected to play a major role in UK compliance with the EU Renewables Directive. Projections from a range of analysts suggest the UK may need at least 15 to 20 GW of offshore wind capacity by 2020 (HoL, 2008) . Though the government has not set a specific target, the central range in its Renewable Energy Roadmap is that up to 18 GW could be installed by 2020 (DECC, 2011) with aspirations to go well beyond that in the decades that follow.

Development rights in the UK have been awarded by the Crown Estate (the owner of the seabed) in 4 rounds to date. Rounds 1 and 2, which commenced in 2001 and 2003 respectively, granted rights for a total of circa 8 GW of development. Round 2.5 gave Round 2 developers the rights to an additional 1.5 GW, whilst Round 3 rights, awarded in 2010, were for over 30 GW of potential development (The Crown Estate, 2010a, The Crown Estate, 2010b, Douglas-Westwood, 2010).

Given the substantial ambitions for UK offshore wind deployment the issue of cost and cost reduction has therefore been the subject of considerable interest. Drawing heavily on the data and analyses of UKERC TPA’s 2010 report (Greenacre et al., 2010), this paper examines cost trends in offshore wind energy, comparing past forecasts with outcomes to date, and analysing the main reasons for the disparity between them. The rationale for the study is to support and inform Chapter 5 of the UKERC TPA report ‘Presenting the Future: An assessment of future cost estimation methodologies in the electricity generation sector’. The case study has three specific aims:

• Examine the key trends in contemporary costs and future cost projections (Section 2);
• Understand the drivers underlying these key trends and the reasons for differences between anticipated cost levels and actual out-turns (Section 3);
• Identify implications for cost estimation methodologies (Section 4).

By 2020, it is projected that there will be 170GW of onshore wind capacity in the European Union, and 120GW in China (IEA, 2011), whilst America is expected to deliver 12GW of wind per year on average within this decade (Emerging Energy Research, 2009). Meanwhile within the UK, the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) envisages a total of 13GW of onshore wind capacity over the same timeframe (DECC, 2011) However, although not as expensive as its offshore counterpart, the cost-effectiveness of onshore wind has been challenged within the UK. In February 2012 over one hundred MPs wrote to the Prime Minister expressing their concern about the subsidies required to support the technology (Middleton, 2012).

This case study contributes to a UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC, 2011) project on electricity generation cost estimation methodologies by:

• Examining forecasts for onshore wind costs made in the past;
• Comparing these forecasts with how costs actually evolved;
• Understanding the key historical drivers of onshore wind costs; and
• Identifying implications for onshore wind cost estimation methodologies.

The analysis focuses on the capex costs and levelised cost of energy (LCOE) of onshore wind. The cost data was collected from over 40 sources from a range of countries, with full details found in the Appendix.

This working paper examines global and UK trends in cost trajectories of PV technologies, at module and system level, with the aim of:

• 1. Examining key trends in contemporary costs and forecasted cost projections;
• 2. Discussing major drivers for cost reductions;
• 3. Identifying implications for the use of available cost estimation methodologies in forecasting PV technology costs.

Direct use of fossil fuels is the main source of space heating in the UK and this drives a major part of national greenhouse gas emissions. Climate stabilisation therefore implies a systemic change in approaches to space heating, involving some combination of radical efficiency improvement and low carbon fuels. The challenge in this area for the UK is made particularly difficult because of the combination of the legal commitment to an 80% reduction in emissions by 2050, an old building stock and a very high penetration of natural gas as a heating fuel.

This paper presents new quantified scenarios for residential energy use in the UK to 2050. These address both factors that are exogenous to the energy system, such as population, but also some systemically different approaches to delivering residential heat.

• To identify and build a common understanding among its stakeholders of the key factors required for the successful deployment of new low carbon energy technologies commercially and at scale.
• To develop a framework for the successful commercial exploitation of low carbon energy technologies that it hopes can be widely socialised and subsequently used by those organisations involved in the development, financing and delivery of resilient and affordable low carbon energy solutions in the UK.
• To provide an initial, high level ‘model’ of the UK low carbon innovation system, including its key stages, barriers, drivers and stakeholders, to provide a suitable structure for testing and socialisation with industry, finance and government stakeholders engaged in energy and other low carbon innovations.

Through a case-study of Yorkshire water, staff interviews, examination of its current practices and insights from academic literature, the brief identifies opportunities for reducing energy use in water management. It underscores the need to enhance public awareness of water-energy interdependencies, emphasising shared responsibility for environmen

This policy brief explores the dual nature of DHTs in contributing to and mitigating healthcares carbon footprint. Focusing on Englands National Health Service (NHS), the study delves into how the adoption of digital technologies could either reduce or exacerbate the healthcare sectors carbon footprint, raising critical questions for the NHSs digital transformation efforts.

The analysis reveals that while DHTs offer avenues for reducing emissionssuch as telehealth reducing the need for patient and cl

This meeting will bring together a wide range of stakeholders researchers, funders, policy makers and industrialists to identify bioenergy Research Roadmap priorities for the UK, as there is no current Research Roadmap specifically tailored for the context of the UK.

Our agricultural landscape is complex but limited and the way in which UK-sourced and imported feedstock may be deployed for the competing requirements of heat, power and liquid fuel is not easily resolved. On the one hand the energy balance of heat and power may be much better than that for liquid biofuels, but on the other hand, few alternatives for liquid biofuel are available, in contrast to renewable sources of heat and power. All of this highlights the complexity of this area and suggests that such a discussion meeting is timely and will produce valuable output that captures the interdisciplinary re