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This project uses the global TIMES Integrated Assessment Model in UCL (‘TIAM-UCL’) to provide robust quantitative insights into the future of natural gas in the energy system and in particular whether or not gas has the potential to act as a ‘bridge’ to a low-carbon future on both a global and regional basis out to 2050.

We first explore the dynamics of a scenario that disregards any need to cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Such a scenario results in a large uptake in the production and consumption of all fossil fuels, with coal in particular dominating the electricity system. It is unconventional sources of gas production that account for much of the rise in natural gas production; with shale gas exceeding 1 Tcm after 2040. Gas consumption grows in all sectors apart from the electricity sector, and eventually becomes cost effective both as a marine fuel (as liquefied natural gas) and in mediumgoods vehicles (as compressed natural gas).

We next examine how different gas market structures affect natural gas production, consumption, and trade patterns. For the two different scenarios constructed, one continued current regionalised gas markets, which are characterised by very different prices in different regions with these prices often based on oil indexation, while the other allowed a global gas price to form based on gas supply-demand fundamentals. We find only a small change in overall global gas production levels between these but a major difference in levels of gas trade and so conclude that if gas exporters choose to defend oil indexation in the short-term, they may end up destroying their export markets in longer term. A move towards pricing gas internationally, based on supply-demand dynamics, is thus shown to be crucial if they are to maintain their current levels of exports.

A review funded by HubNet and UKERC, and written by the University of Strathclyde's Damien Frame, Keith Bell and Stephen McArthur, argues that RD&D activity by Britains electricity distribution network operators has significantly revived; this revival is linked to Ofgem's 500m Low Carbon Network Fund investment.

This report assesses the currently available evidence on the size of unconventional gas resources at the regional and global level. Focusing in particular on shale gas, it provides a comprehensive summary and comparison of the estimates that have been produced to date. It also examines the methods by which these resource estimates have been produced the strengths and weaknesses of those methods, the range of uncertainty in the results and the factors that are relevant to their interpretation.

This report, commissioned by the Aldersgate Group and co-authored with Vivid Economics, identifies out how the government can achieve a net zero target cost-effectively, in a way that enables the UK to capture competitive advantages.

The unique contribution of this report is to identify the lessons from successful and more rapid historical innovations and apply them to the challenge of meeting net zero emissions in the UK.

Achieving net zero emissions is likely to require accelerated innovation across research, demonstration and early deployment of low carbon technologies. Researchers analysed five international case studies of relatively rapid innovations to draw key lessons for government on the conditions needed to move from a typical multi-decadal cycle, to one that will deliver net zero emissions by mid-Century.

The case studies include:

• The deployment of the ATM network and cash cards across the UK;
• Roll out of a gas network and central heating in the UK;
• The development of wind turbines in Denmark and then the UK;
• Moving from late-stage adoption of steel technology in South Korea to being the world leading exporter; and
• The slower than expected development of commercial-scale CCUS to date across the world. 

The report also sets out which low carbon technologies are likely to have wider productivty and growth benefits in other industries for the UK. These include carbon capture, use and storage (CCUS); heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC); wind energy; biofuels and batteries. These areas should be prioritised by the government’s innovation strategy going forwards.

This workshop had several aims:

1. To increase understanding of the different approaches to ABM and their applicability to informing energy and other policy intervention design
2. To identify policy areas where ABM techniques could be usefully applied and to examine how they could be incorporated into the policy making process.
3. To develop joint research proposals aimed at relevant research funding bodies.
4. To develop relationships between key researchers in this emerging area.

What policies and other factors have driven change/transformation in heat delivery technologies, fuels and infrastructure? The Technology and Policy Assessment (TPA) Theme of UKERC have published a scoping note outlining their ongoing investigation into this topic.

Part of the Energy-PIECES project, this report was developed during a secondment at the Energy Savings Trust.

The two-day residential workshop brought together experts from the bioenergy community to explore bioenergy research opportunities which could benefit from financial support from the Carbon Trust using its new directed research approach.

This paper explores the sensitivity of energy system decarbonisation pathways to the role of afforestation and reduced energy demands as a means to lessen reliance on carbon dioxide removal. 

Large uncertainties surround the viability of carbon dioxide removal

The stringency of climate targets set out in the Paris Agreement has placed strong emphasis on the role of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) over this century. However, there are large uncertainties around the technical and economic viability and the sustainability of large-scale CDR options. These uncertainties have prompted further consideration of the role of bioenergy in decarbonisation pathways and the potential land-use trade-offs between energy crops and afforestation. The interest in afforestation is motivated by its potential as an alternative to large-scale bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), with its arguably lower risk supply chains, and multiple co-benefits. Furthermore, doubt over the viability of large-scale CDR has prompted a renewed examination of the extent to which their need can be offset by lowering energy demands.

Testing the impacts of reduced demands and afforestation

A global optimisation model (TIAM-UCL) was used to examine decarbonisation pathways for the global energy system. Based on core assumptions, where energy demands follow business as usual trends and degraded land is used for energy crops, the model was unable to find a solution for a 1.5°C target. Over the period 2020-2100, the carbon budget of GtCO₂ is exceeded by 332 GtCO₂.

Scenarios where also run to examine how the least-cost decarbonisation pathway changes if i) energy demands are significantly reduced, or ii) degraded land is used for large-scale afforestation instead of energy crops. Each option on its own reduced the CO₂ budget exceedance but both were required to allow the model to meet the 1.5°C target.

Impacts on the energy system

Under the 2°C target, afforestation reduced the reliance on BECCS by 60%. Under the 1.5°C target, the system still used all of the biomass available, as the target is so ambitious. When the energy demands were lower, the effect of afforestation on biomass use was dependent on the climate target. Under the 2°C target, less biomass was used across all economic sectors, whereas under the stringent 1.5°C target, all the available wood and crop biomass was exploited, but its use shifted away from the production of liquid fuels towards use in power generation.

Lowering energy service demands had a larger effect on the energy mix than large-scale afforestation. This is because demands are lowered differently across the sectors according to their economic drivers. However, afforestation had a bigger impact on the marginal cost of climate change mitigation, as it substantially decreases the scale and pace of change required by the energy system, especially in the 2°C case.

Given its key role, afforestation should be considered more in deep decarbonisation scenarios, as should lower demand scenarios.

Lowering energy demand and introducing large-scale afforestation both present significant challenges and opportunities. Further work should focus on factors affecting the carbon sequestration potential of afforestation, along with an interdisciplinary research agenda on the scope for large scale energy demand reduction. Research on the social, technical and economic factors that affect the potential for converting abandoned agricultural land to energy crops or new forest would be beneficial. An interdisciplinary research agenda is needed that brings together techno-economic modelling and qualitative scenario development with research on the social change that could lead to large reductions in energy demand

This report explores ways of enhancing the resilience of the UK energy system to withstand external shocks and examines how such measures interact with those designed to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The concept of resilience is explored and a set of indicators is developed to define quantitatively the characteristics of a resilient energy system. In the report we systematically test the response of the UK energy system under different scenarios to hypothetical shocks. These are all assumed to involve the loss of gas infrastructure. We then assess mitigating measures which can help to reduce the impact of these shocks and test their cost effectiveness using an insurance analogy.

The aim of the research is to assess the technical, economic, financial and social uncertainties facing carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies, and to analyse the potential role they could play in the UK power sector between now and 2030. CCS technologies are often highlighted as a crucial component of future low carbon energy systems in the UK and internationally. However, it is unclear when these technologies will be technically proven at full scale, and whether their costs will be competitive with other low carbon options.

This meeting follows on from the UK Energy Research Centre annual assembly and brings speakers from leading national positions, who can provide perspectives on success, failure, and future pathways. Will the UK be a leader in climate stabilisation? Or is that moment about to pass?

The focus is on CCS ( carbon capture and storage). This is suite of technologies to capture CO2 at power stations and other concentrated sources, liquefy and transport the CO2, and inject into rock pores deep below ground. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change produced a special report on CCS in 2005, where a worldwide analysis showed that CCS could halve the increase of CO2 emissions by 2100 especially in coal using countries. The UK has claim to a world-class opportunity for CCS, utilising reservoirs deep beneath the North Sea. Will technology, industry, and Government enable thisopportuni

The aim was to examine the specific triggers for changes in patterns of understanding and attitude – and the conditions under which these lead to changes in behaviour. New and innovative methodologies were developed, including the preparation of authentic news broadcasts to present possible future outcomes of climate change and problems with energy security constraint. The results show how beliefs held by audiences can be affected when they receive new information. The conditions under which people believe or reject different arguments are at the heart of the study.

This systematic review presents data on the total installed costs for domestic heat pumps in the UK and internationally. It covers historic and forecast costs, across a range of technology types and building contexts.

This is the second in a series of reports arising from UKERCs Energy 2050 project. The report considers the prospects for accelerated development of a range of emerging low carbon energy supply technologies and the possible impact of this acceleration on decarbonisation of the UK energy system. The technologies analysed here include a number of renewables (wind power, marine energy, solar PV and bioenergy) and other emerging low carbon technologies (advanced designs of nuclear power, carbon capture and storage (CCS) and hydrogen / fuel cells). The report presents a set of scenarios devised by UKERC to illustrate how accelerated development of these technologies could contribute to decarbonisation of the UK energy system from now to 2050. The results suggest that technology acceleration could have a major influence on UK decarbonisation pathways, especially in the longer term.

The in-depth analysis presented in this report focuses on four key areas of the economy, highlighting how they may need to change to remain competitive and meet future carbon targets.

• Heat: All approaches for heat decarbonisation are potentially disruptive, with policymakers favouring those that are less disruptive to consumers. Since it is unlikely that rapid deployment of low carbon heating will be driven by consumers or the energy industry, significant policy and governance interventions will be needed to drive the sustainable heat transformation.
• Transport: Following the Road to Zero pathway for road transport is unlikely to be disruptive, but it is not enough to meet our climate change targets. The stricter targets for phasing out conventional vehicles that will be required will lead to some disruption. Vehicle manufacturers, the maintenance and repair sector and the Treasury may all feel the strain.
• Electricity: Strategies of the Big 6 energy companies have changed considerably in recent years, with varying degrees of disruption to their traditional business model. It remains to be seen whether they will be able to continue to adapt to rapid change or be overtaken by new entrants.
• Construction: To deliver low-carbon building performance will require disruptive changes to the way the construction sector operates. With new-build accounting for less than 1% of the total stock, major reductions in energy demand will need to come through retrofit of existing buildings.

The report identifies how policy makersplan for disruptions to existing systems. With the right tools and with a flexible and adaptive approach to policy implementation, decision makers can better respondto unexpected consequences and ensure delivery of key policy objectives.

Welcome to the Energy Materials Availability Handbook (EMAH), a brief guide to some of the materials that are critical components in low carbon energy technologies. In recent years concern has grown regarding the availability of a host of materials critical to the development and manufacturing of low carbon technologies.

In this handbook we examine 10 materials or material groups, presenting the pertinent facts regarding their production, resources, and other issues surrounding their availability. Three pages of summary are devoted to each material or material group. A how to use guide is provided on the following pages.

This report aims to support informed debate about the amount of biomass that might be available globally for energy, taking account of sustainability concerns. It uses a systematic review methodology to identify and discuss estimates of the global potential for biomass that have been published over the last 20 years. The assumptions both technical and ethical that lie behind these are exposed and their influence on calculations of biomass potential described.

The report does not seek to determine what an acceptable level of biomass production might be. What it does is reveal how different levels of deployment necessitate assumptions that could have far reaching consequences for global agriculture, forestry and land use; ranging from a negligible impact to a radical reconfiguration of current practice. The report also examines the insights the literature provides into the interactions between biomass production, conventional agriculture, land use, and forestry.

Social Value is a rising policy agenda in the UK, formalised in legislation by the Public Services (Social Value) Act 2012. It refers to social, economic and environmental benefits whose value is not captured in financial flows. Whilst multiple tools and methodologies are available to measure Social Value, there is little consensus on which method is best to use in different contexts. This report reviews options and considers how best to measure Social Value in the context of major energy infrastructure projects such as HPC.

The report finds that value is highly contingent and subjective, and that what is valuable is not always tangible. It therefore emphasises the importance of qualitative measures of Social Value alongside quantitative data or monetary estimates, recognising the limits of assigning financial values to some types of outcome. It also stresses the importance of involving stakeholders to find out what matters to them and what they most value.

Delivered as part of the Energy-PIECES project this report was developed during a secondment at EDF Energy

Concern about fairness in the retail energy market is clear from media headlines and the passing of legislation to impose a wide price cap in the retail energy market in 2018. Fairness in Retail Energy Markets? Evidence from the UK provides extensive evidence from a range of disciplines to inform this important debate. This report does notattempt to define what constitutes fair or unfair, since this ultimately rests in the eye of the beholder. Nevertheless, its message is clear: development of the retail energy market in the UK can only be understood by recognising the political economy around questions of distribution and fairness.

A multi-disciplinary perspective

The publication reports research conducted at the Centre for Competition Policy, University of East Anglia, as part of the UK Energy Research Centres programme. The research is multi-disciplinary, drawing together researchers from a range of disciplines: economists, legal scholars, human geographers and a policy analyst. This range of specialisms provides a rare opportunity to consider fairness and retail energy markets in the round. The research team is both unusually broad and academically independent. The reports five main chapters present findings from different disciplines and methodologies to stimulate consideration of evidence which is rarely encountered together. In assembling this evidence the researchers are grateful to our partners Broadland Housing Association, Cornwall Energy and Ofgem, as well as to the Parliamentary Archive and all our interviewees.

The report presents findings under five broad themes: (i) how long-term outcomes contextualise the retail energy markets political salience; (ii) how distributional objectives feed into institutions; (iii) the multi-faceted nature of engagement with energy; (iv) the detailed experiences of those at risk of FP; and (v) how data/statistics can be improved.

Key issues highlighted

Together the evidence raises fundamental issues for the future governance of the market. The traditional focus of economics on efficiency has never claimed that markets are effective tools for delivering equitable outcomes, and the traditional framework of pure economic regulation is challenged by the focus on fairness. Can the market ever escape political intervention when energy prices rise substantially? This question is particularly relevant when key affordability support policies the Winter Fuel Payment and the initial Fuel Poverty Strategy were introduced as energy was approaching its mostaffordable level over a 30-year time horizon.

Energys political salience has meant that the independence of the market regulator, Ofgem, has evolved in a way not originally envisioned. Government has increased the number and complexity of Ofgems statutory duties. The resulting ambiguity regarding how to prioritise the regulators different duties has led to increased government-regulator communication and the potential for government to exert pressure on the regulator through less formal channels.

We present evidence indicating that there are problems with implementing the main frame used to address energy fairness in the UK, namely fuel poverty. We suggest that the approach to analysing fuel poverty, and the associated policymaking, would benefit from a change of direction, towards a focus on the directly observable real-world phenomenawhich underpin this complex problem, rather than on the official fuel poverty statistics. Such an approach would help to recognise that energy efficiency interventions are unlikely to solve all the energy affordability challenges facing households.

This is the final report for the DTI and DEFRA on the development of a new UK MARKAL & MARKAL-Macro (M-M) energy systems model. The focus of this final report is on the extensive range of UK 60% CO2 abatement scenarios and sensitivity analysis run for analytical insights to underpin the 2007 Energy White Paper. This analysis was commissioned by the DTI to underpin the development of the 2007 UK Energy White Paper, and this technical report is a companion publication to the policy focused discussion of the modelling work (DTI, 2007).

Commencing in 2016, the Financing Community Energy project provides a comprehensive quantitative and qualitative analysis of the role of finance in the evolution of the UK community energy sector. This report presents the final of our four case studies of UK community energy organisations, exploring how these organisations have sought to finance their projects against a backdrop of diminishing government support for grassroots sustainable development.

Established in 2013, Brighton and Hove Energy Services (BHESCo) primary focus was to develop both renewable energy and energy efficiency projects, whilst also ensuring people have equal access to energy. BHESCo is rather unlike our other community energy case studies in that it operates very much like an Energy Services Company (ESCo), where they accept some degree of responsibility to provide the energy service that its customers ultimately desire (e.g. lighting, ambient temperature), rather than the straightforward supply of heat or electricity.

This report presents a case study of Edinburgh Community Solar Cooperative, exploring how it financed the project against a backdrop of diminishing government support for grassroots sustainable development.

This report presents the first of four case studies of UK community energy organisations, exploring how these organisations have sought to finance their projects against a backdrop of diminishing government support for grassroots sustainable development.

Edinburgh Community Solar Cooperative (ECSC) is a Community Benefit Society (BenCom). Its objectives are a combination of environmental and social, with an explicit focus on reducing emissions, alleviating fuel poverty, improving energy security and promoting sustainable development education.

ECSC quickly settled on renewable power generation as a means of delivering this combination of environmental andsocial value. Today it operates 1.4 MW of solar PV panels on the roofs of 24 council-owned properties in Edinburgh, including schools, leisure centres and community halls.

Commencing in 2016, the Financing Community Energy project provides a comprehensive quantitative and qualitative analysis of the role of finance in the evolution of the UK community energy sector. This report presents the second of four case studies of UK community energy organisations, exploring how these organisations have sought to finance their projects against a backdrop of diminishing government support for grassroots sustainable development.

Green Energy Mull (GEM) is a Community Benefit Company (BenCom) that owns and operates Garmony Hydro; a 400 kW run-of-the-river hydro scheme on the island of Mull, off the west coast of Scotland.

Commencing in 2016, the Financing Community Energy project provides a comprehensive quantitative and qualitative analysis of the role of finance in the evolution of the UK community energy sector. This report presents the third of four case studies of UK community energy organisations, exploring how these organisations have sought to finance their projects against a backdrop of diminishing government support for grassroots sustainable development.

Gwent Energy (Wales) was formed in 2009 to deliver environmental benefit and cost savings to its local community. It aims to help local consumers save money on their energy bills through a combination of renewable energy, efficiency, storage and electric vehicle charging interventions, whilst simultaneously generating a surplus to fund local community initiatives.

Natural gas plays a critical role in the UK’s energy system, providing twice as much energy as electricity, thus the secure and affordable supply of natural gas is an essential element of UK energy security and a key objective of Government policy. The starting proposition for this report is that Brexit is coming at a time when there are already major challenges to the UK’s future gas security.

This report deploys two aspects of previous UKERC research on UK gas security: first, a supply chain approach to assessing UK gas security; and second, a whole systems approach that places current and future gas demand within the context of the decarbonisation of the UK’s energy system. This is because there are key uncertainties in the wider system that have important implications for future gas demand. It is in this context that the Brexit decision has created additional uncertainty at a time when the UK energy sector needs to make critical investment decisions. In the current situation we can conceive of a ‘Brexit Interregnum’ whereby important decisions and policies are delayed because of the demands of the Brexit negotiations.

This report has three objectives:

• To identify the key challenges facing the UK’s natural gas market;
• To understand the role that EU policies and institutions currently play in the operations of the UK’s natural gas market; and,
• To identify the potential impact of Brexit and the key issues that should be addressed in a post-Brexit ‘UK Gas Security Strategy.’

The report also focuses on the broadly ‘physical’ factors that may restrict the rate at which conventional oil can be produced, including the production profile of individual fields and the distribution of resources between different sizes of field. While these are invariably mediated by economic, technical and political factors, the extent to which increased investment can overcome these physical constraints is contested. Global oil supply is also influenced by a much wider range of economic, political and geopolitical factors (e.g. resource nationalism) and several of these may pose a significant challenge to energy security, even in the absence of ‘below-ground’ constraints. What is disputed, however, is whether physical depletion is also likely to constrain global production in the near-term, even if economic and political conditions prove more favourable. In practice, these ‘above ground’ and ‘below ground’ risks are interdependent and difficult to separate. Nevertheless, this report focuses primarily on the latter since they are the focus of the peak oil debate.

The report does not investigate the potential consequences of supply shortages or the feasibility of different approaches to mitigating such shortages, although both are priorities for future research.

At present, Governments commitment stands in sharp contrast with its inaction on heat decarbonisation to date. Under pressure to progress this agenda, Government has charged the Clean Heat Directorate with the task of outlining the process for determining the UK’s long-term heat policy framework, to be published in the Roadmap for policy on heat decarbonisation in the summer of 2020 (BEIS, 2017). This report, resulting from one of six EPSRC-funded secondments, is designed to support early thinking on the roadmap by answering the research question: How can Transitions research informs the roadmap for governing the UKs heating transition?

Delivered as part of the Energy-PIECES project, this report was developed during a secondment with BEIS.

This report was produced by the UK Energy Research Centre’s (UKERC) Technology and Policy Assessment (TPA) function.

The primary objective of the TPA, reflected in this report, is to provide a thorough review of the current state of knowledge. New research, such as modelling or primary data gathering may be carried out when essential. It also aims to explain its findings in a way that is accessible to non-technical readers and is useful to policymakers.

• Current HEMS market in the UK is dominated by relatively simple products with slim margins
• The real long term aim is to establish and own the customer relationship in the home; simple HEMS products are the gateway device to a connected-home
• The connected-home market is most likely to be led by ambitious and well-funded technology players
• Telcos are also well-placed to move into the space with bundled offerings but no sign as yet
• Of the Big 6, currently only British Gas is demonstrating the ambition to drive development of the HEMS market
• Advanced ESCo offers are likely to take longer to, or may never, develop in the market
• Smart home development likely to develop later as an evolution from earlier automation
• The big prize for ETI is in developing the Advanced ESCo proposition where there are 3 primary opportunities identified
  • Right-sizing of heating solutions
  • Optimisation of time of use and demand response benefits via local storage
  • Arbitrage-driven operation of hybrid heat pumps
• Preparing for a non-energy led scenario may also be sensible to consider, especially in the shorter term

Local Authorities role in the energy transition and working with their citizens in doing so, has been recognised as crucial to paving transition paths. Material collated within this report is intended to better inform Energy Cities and its partners, Local Authorities and Municipalities, civil society groups and others interested in how citizens can be supported and encouraged to participate in energy system developments as a part of the energy transition. The findings in this report are therefore intended to directly help Local Authorities across Europe in implementing more participative approaches to their governance practices in energy systems.

Delivered as part of the Energy-PIECES project, this report was developed during a secondment with Energy Cities.

1. Construction of a set of socio-technical scenarios of air conditioning uptake,
2. Dynamic building simulation to estimate half hourly power consumption of air conditioning in archetypal single buildings,
3. Addition of air conditioning demand to existing prediction of 2050 national grid demand (National Grid Two Degrees 2050 scenario).

The workshop aimed to explore how the flexible mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol could better capture the large energy efficiency potential in the CEE region. While implementation of the mechanisms in the region is desired, in practice it is likely to be a challenging task. The workshop has made it possible for two interested groups to meet and learn from each other: one group being participants from the CEE region seeking knowledge transfer and capacity building, and the other group being carbon trading specialists.

The two workshops aim to:

• elaborate approaches to understanding innovation from different disciplinary perspectives;
• illustrate these approaches through the use of case studies from energy and, where appropriate, other sectors;
• generate common insights and understanding;
• assess policy implications from this understanding for promoting low carbon innovation;
• identify requirements for further research.

The full presentations are available on the UKERC Meeting Place website. This report provides a summary of the presentations and discussions at the first workshop.

This report provides an analysis of the link between investment risks in electricity generation and policy design. The issues it discusses are relevant to a wide range of policy developments in the UK and elsewhere. These include banding the Renewables Obligation, bringing forward the development of power stations with carbon capture, financial support for nuclear power and the future of emissions trading.

Key findings:

• The majority of local authorities have ambitions for action on sustainable energy, and 82% of those researched are active to some degree
• Local authorities were more likely to have an Energy and Carbon Plan than investment in projects
• Local authority investment in energy was focused on infrastructures for combined heat and power alongside the improvement of energy efficiency in buildings
• Across the UK, Scotland had a higher proportion of leaders in providing low carbon systems - the leading local authorities in England were in Yorkshire and Humber, Greater London and the North East
• The scale of local authority energy projects in relation to overall energy systems remains limited
• Local authorities have very limited capacity for strategic energy management

This report aims to answer the following question: What is the evidence that policy support for investment in renewable energy and energy efficiency leads to net job creation in the implementing regions?

This report takes a whole systems approach to the development of the UK energy system over the next 40 years.

Achieving a resilient low-carbon energy system is technically and economically feasible at an affordable cost.

There are multiple potential pathways to a low-carbon economy. A key trade-off across the energy system is the speed of reduction in energy demand versus decarbonisation of energy supply. There is also a number of more specific trade-offs and uncertainties, such as the degree to which biomass, as opposed to electricity and perhaps hydrogen, is used in transport and other sectors.

Deploying new and improved technologies on the supply side will require substantially increased commitment to RD&D, the strengthening of financial incentives and the dismantling of regulatory and market barriers. A major increase in efforts to acceleratethedevelopment of

Mapping energy participation: a systematic review of diverse practices of participation in UK energy transitions 2010-2015. What does public participation in energy transitions look like at a relational 'whole systems' level?

There is increasing concern that future supply of some lesser known critical metals will not be sufficient to meet rising demand in the low-carbon technology sector. A rising global population, significant economic growth in the developing world, and increasing technological sophistication have all contributed to a surge in demand for a broad range of metal resources. In the future, this trend is expected to continue as the growth in low-carbon technologies compounds these other drivers of demand. This report examines the issues surrounding future supply and demand for critical metals - including Cobalt, Gallium, Germanium, Indium, Lithium, Platinum, Selenium, Silver, Tellurium, and Rare earth Metals.

This report is the first in the UKERC Energy 2050 project series. It focuses on a range of low carbon scenarios underpinned by energy systems analysis using the newly developed and updated UK MARKAL elastic demand (MED) model. Such modelling is designed to develop insights on a range of scenarios of future energy system evolution and the resultant technology pathways, sectoral trade-offs and economic implications. Long-term energy scenario-modelling analysis is characterised by deep uncertainty over a range of drivers including resources, technology development, behavioural change and policy mechanisms. Therefore, subsequent UKERC Energy 2050 reports focus on a broad scope of sensitivity analysis to investigate alternative scenarios of energy system evolution. In particularly, these alternative scenarios investigate different drivers of the UK’s energy supply and demand, and combine the twin goals of decarbonisation and energy system resilience. Future analysis includes the use of complementary macro-econometric and detailed sectoral energy models.

A recent Government study into personal carbon trading1 (PCT) concluded that as a policy instrument PCT has potential to engage individuals in taking action to combat climate change, but is essentially ahead of its time and expected costs for implementation are high.2 . Yet, at the same time Defra has recognised that further research is being taken forward by academics and research institutions outside of Government, and Defra will keep a watching brief on their progress3 . PCT related research studies being undertaken in different universities and institutions across the UK, or overseas, have not yet been brought together in a coherent way and interaction between researchers has been limited. In addition, the Defra studies have highlighted some areas for further research. Thus, the key aims of the workshop were to:

1. Map the field of PCT research: learn what each of us is doing and our respective research focus;
2. Determine where we have got so far, in terms of knowledge and understanding of PCT and its related issues;
3. Discuss future research directions with regard to funding opportunities;
4. Create a PCT researchers network; and
5. Discuss and agree the process for publishing a PCT edited volume through the Climate Policy journal that provides a comprehensive, state-of-the-art review of PCT research to date.

These key aims have largely been met. In the Appendix of the main report is a document setting out the research interests of the workshop participants, giving a flavour of who is doing what where. The Climate Policy journal has expressed interest in publishing a special issue on PCT in early 2010. Papers for this special issue are now being coordinated by the Environmental Change Institute of the University of Oxford.

A recent Government study into personal carbon trading1 (PCT) concluded that as a policy instrument PCT has potential to engage individuals in taking action to combat climate change, but is essentially ahead of its time and expected costs for implementation are high.2 . Yet, at the same time Defra has recognised that further research is being taken forward by academics and research institutions outside of Government, and Defra will keep a watching brief on their progress3 . PCT related research studies being undertaken in different universities and institutions across the UK, or overseas, have not yet been brought together in a coherent way and interaction between researchers has been limited. In addition, the Defra studies have highlighted some areas for further research. Thus, the key aims of the workshop were to:

1. Map the field of PCT research: learn what each of us is doing and our respective research focus;
2. Determine where we have got so far, in terms of knowledge and understanding of PCT and its related issues;
3. Discuss future research directions with regard to funding opportunities;
4. Create a PCT researchers network; and
5. Discuss and agree the process for publishing a PCT edited volume through the Climate Policy journal that provides a comprehensive, state-of-the-art review of PCT research to date.

These key aims have largely been met. In the Appendix of the main report is a document setting out the research interests of the workshop participants, giving a flavour of who is doing what where. The Climate Policy journal has expressed interest in publishing a special issue on PCT in early 2010. Papers for this special issue are now being coordinated by the Environmental Change Institute of the University of Oxford.

This report presents the key outputs from the workshop on Place and Energy: Does scale matter? which took place on 21st August 2006 at Imperial College, London and was hosted and sponsored by the UK Energy Research Centre Meeting Place.

The aim of the workshop was to identify the research and policy issues in developing a multi-level energy policy that takes place and the relationships between scales seriously, which would be of value to both policy and practice

Energy is a crucial element for development in almost every aspect of community life such as education, health, food, and security, and it can contribute to farming productivity, income generation, and the creation of networks that enable youth to work from their villages. Despite this, around 1 billion people globally do not have access to sustainable energy sources, and 80% of those people live in rural areas across 20 countries in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. To decrease this energy access gap, and to improve rural livelihoods and increase economic opportunities in rural areas, Productive Uses of Energy (PUE) offer an untapped opportunity: examples of PUE include irrigation and post-harvest processing.

Despite the benefits of PUE, they are often not considered in the planning off-grid rural electrification developments. This may be partially attributed to a lack of capital; riskyframework conditions; and a lack of clear policy guidelines available on the subject. The latter of which was the focus of this research project.

Delivered as part of the Energy-PIECES project, this report was developed during a secondment with Practical Action.

The challenge of rapidly decarbonising our energy system can’t be addressed if only half of the population is involved. Unfortunately it’s old news that women are significantly underrepresented in Science, Technology, Engineering and Maths (STEM) subjects, with the UK having the lowest proportion of female engineers in the EU. Across all academic disciplines women account for 58% of Postgraduate students but only 25% of Professors.

Our research explores the current state of gender balance in UK energy research. We looked at the data and talked to female energy researchers about their experience of securing research funding and of academic life. They told us what needs to change.

This report considers the role and importance of electricity cost estimates and the methodologies employed to forecast future costs. It examines the conceptual and empirical basis for the expectation that costs will reduce over time, explains the main cost forecasting methodologies, and analyses their strengths, limitations and difficulties. It considers six case study technologies in order to derive both technology specific and generic conclusions about the tools and techniques used to project future electricity generation costs.

This report describes the findings of a nationally representative British survey (n=961) conducted in March 2013. The main aim of the survey was to assess British attitudes to nuclear power and climate change two years after the Fukushima accident. The results are compared to a number of British surveys that were conducted at different stages before and after the Fukushima accident (2005, 2010, 2011, and 2012). This provides an overview of how public attitudes to nuclear and climate change have developed over the past decade and in particular after the Fukushima accident. In the longer term the data will be used for more detailed cross-national comparisons with Japan.

This final report presents and discusses national survey findings from a collaborative and cross-national research project undertaken by Griffith University (Australia) and Cardiff University (UK) examining public risk perceptions, understandings and responses to the threat and unfolding impacts of climate change in Australia and Great Britain. The Australian national survey was undertaken between 6 June and 6 July, 2010 and involved a representative and geographically and demographically stratified national sample of 3096 respondents. The British survey was undertaken between 6 January and 26 March, 2010 and involved a representative quota sample of 1822 respondents residing in England, Scotland and Wales. These articulated surveys were distinctive in their cross-national comparative collaboration, in their psychological and social science nature, focus, and design, in their indepthnature, and in their focus on underlying public understandings and psychological responses to climate change.

This report addresses common findings from these two linked surveys, and expands discussion of issues and findings from the Australian survey. A report detailing the UK survey findings is available separately (Spence, Venables, Pidgeon, Poortinga, & Demski,2010). As well as shared questions and objectives, each survey had additional and differing objectives, with the Australian survey also examining in more detail public risk perceptions, direct exposure and experience, and psychological responses and impacts to natural disasters. The British survey examined in more detail respondents perceptions of energy policies and futures for the United Kingdom. The Australian survey also differed in that it was specifically designed and planned to establish a data base and research platform for documenting and monitoring climate-related changes and impacts in the human landscape over time, including changes in risk perceptions and understandings, psychological responses, and changes in psychological adaptations and impacts.

Energy System Demonstrators are physical demonstrations testing new technologies for low-carbon energy infrastructure.

A review of energy systems demonstrator projects in the UK was undertaken for UKERC by the Energy Systems Research Unit (ESRU) at the University of Strathclyde. The review encompassed 119 demonstrators and consisted of two phases: 1) the identification of demonstrator projects and 2) an analysis of projects and their outcomes.

Energy demonstrators

The review defined an energy system demonstrator as “the deployment and testing of more than one technology type that could underpin the operation of a low-carbon energy infrastructure in the future”. Only demonstrators that post-date the 2008 Climate Change Act were included and that included a physical demonstration at one or more UK sites. 119 projects were identified that met the search criteria.

There were two phases of review activity. Phase 1 involved identification and documentation of demonstration projects, involving a systematic search to identify and record the details of projects. Phase 2 was a review of project outcomes and outputs, particularly end-of-project evaluations, covering technical, economic and social outcomes where available.

The review outputs (available here) are a final report summarising the findings, 119 demonstrator project summaries (the Phase 1 reports), 119 demonstrator output analyses (the Phase 2 reports) and a GIS (Geographic Information System) map and database showing the locations and project details of the demonstrators.

The final report, attendant project summaries and GIS data are intended to provide policy makers and funding bodies with an overview of the existing demonstrator “landscape”, enabling decisions on future demonstrator calls and the focus of those calls to be made with a clearer knowledge of what has already been done.

Project files

• Access the demonstrators GIS map here.
• Access the Phase 1 summaries here.
• Access the Phase 2 summaries here. 

This report serves as a technical explanation of the MARKAL and MARKAL-Macro (M-M) model analysis, to be included in the 2007 Energy White Paper, of the long-term impacts and associated uncertainties of a 60% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050. It is a companion report to the policy focused DTI report The MARKAL energy model in the 2007 Energy White Paper (DTI, 2007). Further policy focused MARKAL-Macro analysis, exploring alternate sensitivities and more stringent emission reduction targets is in Lockwood et al (2007) and DEFRA (2007).

‘Smart grid’ is a catch-all term for the smart options that could transform the ways society produces, delivers and consumes energy, and potentially the way we conceive of these services. Delivering energy more intelligently will be fundamental to decarbonising the UK electricity system at least possible cost, while maintaining security and reliability of supply.

Smarter energy delivery is expected to allow the integration of more low carbon technologies and to be much more cost effective than traditional methods, as well as contributing to economic growth by opening up new business and innovation opportunities. Innovating new options for energy system management could lead to cost savings of up to £10bn, even if low carbon technologies do not emerge1 . This saving will be much higher if UK renewable energy targets are achieved.

Building on extensive expert feedback and input, this report describes four smart grid scenarios which consider how the UK’s electricity system might develop to 2050. The scenarios outline how political decisions, as well as those made in regulation, finance, technology, consumer and social behaviour, market design or response, might affect the decisions of other actors and limit or allow the availability of future options. The project aims to explore the degree of uncertainty around the current direction of the electricity system and the complex interactions of a whole host of factors that may lead to any one of a wide range of outcomes. Our addition to this discussion will help decision makers to understand the implications of possible actions and better plan for the future, whilst recognising that it may take any one of a number of forms.

• Negotiations over the terms of ‘Brexit’ are likely to be lengthy, complex and difficult. Energy is one policy area in which it may be easier for the UK and future EU27 to find common ground

• Energy cooperation over the past decades has helped European countries to enhance their geopolitical security, respond to growing climate threats, and create a competitive pan-European energy market. Maintaining close cooperation in this field, and the UK’s integration in the European internal energy market (IEM), will be important for the UK and the EU27 post-Brexit.

• Strong UK–EU27 energy cooperation could help ensure that existing and future interconnectors – physical pipes and cables that transfer energy across borders – between the UK, Ireland and the continent are used as efficiently as possible. As European economies, including the UK, look to decarbonize further, interconnectors will help minimize the costs of operating low-carbon electricity systems, and help lower electricity prices for UK consumers.

• The UK and the EU27 have identified the special relations between the UK and the Republic of Ireland as a priority for negotiations. Any future agreement needs to maintain the Single Electricity Market (SEM) across the island of Ireland, as failure to do so could result in an expensive duplication of infrastructure and governance.

• EU funds and European Investment Bank (EIB) loans account for around £2.5 billion of the UK’s energy-related infrastructure, climate change mitigation, and research and development (R&D) funding per year. Replacing these sources of finance will be necessary to ensure that the UK’s energy sector remains competitive and innovative.

• The UK intends to leave Euratom, the treaty which established the European Atomic Energy Community and which governs the EU’s nuclear industry. This process – dubbed ‘Brexatom’ – will have a significant impact on the functioning of the UK’s nuclear industry, particularly in respect to nuclear material safeguards, safety, supply, movement across borders and R&D. Achieving this within the two-year Brexit time frame will be extremely difficult. The UK will need to establish a framework that it can fall back on to ensure nuclear safety and security.

• Remaining fully integrated with the IEM would require the UK’s compliance with current and future EU energy market rules, as well with some EU environmental legislation. The UK government, British companies and other relevant stakeholders will need to maintain an active presence in Brussels and European energy forums, so that constructive and informed engagement can be sustained.

• Without a willingness to abide by the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice (ECJ), and in the absence of a new joint UK–EU compliance mechanism, the UK may be required to leave the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) – an instrument in the UK’s and EU’s fight against climate change. Leaving the ETS would be complicated, even more so if the UK leaves before the end of the ETS’s current phase (2013–20). To maintain carbon pricing in some form outside of the ETS, the UK would need to either establish its own emissions trading scheme, which would be complicated and time-consuming; or build on the carbon floor price and introduce a carbon tax. Either of these potential solutions would need political longevity to be effective.

• It is in both the UK’s and the EU27’s interests for the UK to continue to collaborate on energy policy with EU and non-EU member states. The best way to achieve this would be to establish a robust new pan-European energy partnership: an enlarged European Energy Union. In particular, such a partnership could offer a useful platform for aligning EU policies with those of third countries, including the UK, Norway and Switzerland, while allowing them to fully access the IEM and push forward common initiatives. Experience suggests that the EU27 would be more receptive to working within an existing framework or multilateral approach (as with the European Energy Community) than to adopting a bilateral approach (as the EU currently does in its energy relations with Switzerland).

• In recent years Government funding has supported the initial appraisal of several offshore CO₂ storage options in the Southern and Central North Sea and East Irish Seas. Appraisal work completed to date is encouraging, and completion of this alone would present a sizeable, diverse and low cost CO₂ storage offering
• There is more than enough potential storage capacity to meet the UK’s needs for CO₂ storage to 2050 and well beyond, even in high Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) deployment scenarios
• Based on the appraisal work to date, there are no technical barriers to the storage of CO₂ in offshore stores that would limit the CCS industry developing at scale in the UK
• Large-scale stores (capable of storing over 3MT/a) are essential for low cost CO₂ storage, but some UK stores could allow an investment to “start small and build” to de-risk elements of the project, and then grow fast subsequently with low regret
• The contribution CCS can make to decarbonising the industrial sector is considerable, including a few opportunities with low capture costs (ammonia, H₂, biofuels).However, due to their scale, the unit costs of transport and storage from most industrial projects will be high, and these will not catalyse new CCS infrastructure. Conversely, when this infrastructure has been provided, industry can join storage networks at acceptable costs
• In spite of the demise of local coal-fired power stations, the Humber estuary (and to a lesser extent Tees and Thames) will still have a very large existing emission base, good sites for large new low carbon power stations and industry, and access to large, low cost, offshore storage sites.

This was a participatory workshop to share ideas for the innovative use of current energy events in the teaching of energy and transport economics. There were no formal speakers, as participants were given the space, time and 'infrastructure' (i.e. activities and set-up) for networking and sharing. Two weeks before the event, registered participants were asked to answer some questions about their teaching interests, strengths and concerns e.g. approaches to teaching, difficult topics and teaching resources. The responses were used to shape the agenda for the day.

The impetus for this unusual format was that participants of more traditional seminars/workshops/conferences lament the lack of time for networking and sharing. This workshop aimed to remedy that by making those aspects the focus.

This report aims to understand and quantify these impacts, and therefore addresses the question ‘What is the evidence on the impacts and costs of intermittent generation on the British electricity network, and how are these costs assigned?’ It is based on a review of over 200 international studies.

Meeting the Energy Challenge, the White Paper on Energy, was published on May 23, 2007 following several years of intense energy policy review and debate. The BIEE and UKERC one day seminar brought together prominent academics in each of the topics of the White Paper, to present their assessment and critique of the paper and to lead discussion of its implications.

The workshop was structured around the Energy Review Consultation Topics:

• Valuing Carbon
• Saving Energy
• Distributed Energy
• Energy Security
• Transport
• Electricity Generation (Renewables Clean Coal and Nuclear )

The aims of the work undertaken were:

• To characterise the main areas of heat use in the UK and the magnitude of the primaryenergy used
• To describe the main characteristics of the different technologies and approaches available for thermal energy storage and provide examples of their availability, deployment and demonstration
• To review current thermal energy storage system research to determine key characteristics, costs, maturity and additional research requirements
• To identify key application areas for thermal energy storage in the UK based on a national target for an 80% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050
• When combined with large scale deployment of electric air source heat pumps, to explore the potential for peak grid load balancing and the magnitude of thermal energy storage that could be achieved on a distributedbasis

The study examines the macroeconomic rebound effect for the UK economy, arising from UK energy efficiency policies and programmes for 2000-2010. The work explores the relationships between energy efficiency, energy consumption, economic growth and policy interventions using a well-established and highly detailed macroeconomic model of the UK economy. The work has been carried out in response to a call from the UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra), with the support of Defra’s energy-efficiency policy team. As the focus of this study is to assess the magnitude of the macroeconomic rebound effect, the projections given in the report should not be taken as forecasts of future UK economic or environmental performance, e.g. the projections given here will differ from those in the 2006 Climate Change Programme.

This report analyses the nature, operation and importance of rebound effects and provides a comprehensive review of the available evidence on this topic, together with closely related issues, such as the link between energy consumption and economic growth. It assesses the strengths and weaknesses of the evidence base, clarifies the underlying disputes and highlights the implications for energy and climate policy. The key message is that promoting energy efficiency remains an effective way of reducing energy consumption and carbon emissions. But more explicit treatment of rebound effects is needed to assess the contribution that energy efficiency can realistically make.

Energy security is a central goal of energy policy in most countries and with rapid changes occurring throughout the UK energy sector, it remains high on the policy agenda. Recent concerns about UK gas supplies - highlighted by National Grid's gas deficit warning demonstrated just how fundamentally important it is to have a reliable energy system.

Using a number of indicators, ‘The Security of UK Energy Futures’ assesses aspects of security such as energy availability, reliability, sustainability and affordability to examine how energy security risks will change over time

The report draws three main conclusions:

1. There is an important role for energy efficiency and energy demand reduction in energy security strategies; by reducing our energy demand we reduce exposure to risks such as price shocks and energy shortages.
2. The relationship between decarbonisation and energy security is not straightforward. Energy imports are often cited as being insecure, however this can be controversial. Imports can help enhance security by providing additional sources of energy, by lowering costs, or by increasing diversity. What matters most is where the imports are from and whether they are dominated by risky sources or supply routes.
3. Many of the risks can be mitigated; security of the electricity and gas system can be improved significantly by investing in system flexibility. Increasing demand side response has a particularly positive impact on system reliability.

Regen has run the Solar Commission, a project that has been set up as part of the UKERC Whole Systems Network Fund.

Innovation and falling costs are leading to solar power playing an increasing role in the energy system. The UK has considerable scientific, technical and business experience in solar power and including technology, power storage, control systems, financing, and power purchase arrangements.

The role of the Commission has been to stimulate new thinking and encourage collaboration between academics, industry and system operators on the role of solar power in the energy system. The Commission examined areas where the UK could use its scientific and technical capabilities to play a leading role in innovation and industrial strategy opportunities in solar power.

The Commission was formed of industry leaders, academics and others and the Commissioners were responsible for investigating the future role of solar power in the energy system, considering the UK’s areas of strength in research and innovation in solar.

The findings will be used to inform and influence decision makers and leading players in the UK energy system and have been published in a non technical briefing at the House of Lords on 9 July 2019. The project engaged new voices and maximise female representation through collaboration with Regen’s Entrepreneurial Women in Renewables initiative.

This report presents the conclusions of the Commission, setting out:

• key areas of innovation in the solar PV value chain where the UK has competitive advantage.
• the UK’s capabilities in these innovation areas.
• recommendations for UK to capitalise on the global growth opportunity.

A key finding of the Commission is that the UK has strong capabilities in many of the disruptiveinnovations transforming the solar PV market. The UK’s strengths in areas like innovative solar celltechnologies, storage, information and communication technologies and finance have sometimesbeen obscured by a focus on China’s domination of the manufacture of current generation crystallinesolar PV panels.

Phase 1 of the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) facilitated the development of a state-of-the-art MARKAL model of the UK energy system. MARKAL is a well established linear optimisation, energy system model, developed by the Energy Technology Systems Analysis Programme (ETSAP) of the International Energy Agency (IEA) in the 1970s, and was until very recently used by it for its annual Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) reports. It is also used by many other research teams round the world, and has been regularly updated and improved over the years through the ETSAP Implementing Agreement.

Towards the end of UKERCs Phase 1, in 2007-8, UK MARKAL was used for a major modelling exercise of different projections of the UK energy system to 2050, the results of which were published in Skea at al 2011. In the ensuing years, UK MARKAL was again used for major 2050-focused modelling projects: for the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) in 2010 (CCC 2010), for the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) in 2011 (HMG 2011), and again for UKERC to update the Energy 2050 scenarios in 2012. This UKERC Research Report presents the main results of each of these modelling exercises, with a view to drawing out any key messages from the set as a whole.

Comparisons between such model runs, even of the same model, need to be drawn with care. Various assumptions, including cost and other data inputs to the model, were changed between the model runs, to reflect policy and other developments, and to incorporate new information. Some of the technology representations in the model were also improved. These changes have two implications for comparisons between such model runs. The first is that detailed conclusions about the cost-preferability of particular technologies, unless they emerge as clear favourites across the whole set of runs, are unlikely to be robust. This is because the cost uncertainties of possible developments in these technologies and their competitors over four decades are very great. Where, as will be seen in these cases, the costs between the major low-carbon technologies are, or may be, of the same orderof magnitude, then there are no strong grounds on the basis of these runs of preferring one over the others on cost grounds.

The second conclusion is more positive. Where consistent patterns of development of the energy system emerge across the different runs, despite the different inputs and the fact that the runs were carried out by different modellers and modelling teams, then more confidence may be placed in these patterns as likely features of the future UK energy system under the constraints applied, theprincipal constraint being reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, or carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the case of the UK energy system, according to the provisions of the UK Climate Change Act of 2008. It is these consistent patterns that inform the main conclusions of this report, which are summarised here under a number of headings. The numbers on which these broad conclusions are based appear in the main report.

A UKERC Research Report exploring the UK's global gas challenge. This report takes an interdisciplinary perspective, which marries energy security insights from politics and international relations, with detailed empirical understanding from energy studies and perspectives from economic geography that emphasise the spatial distribution of actors, networks and resource flows that comprise the global gas industry.

Natural gas production in the UK peaked in 2000, and in 2004 it became a net importer. A decade later and the UK now imports about half of the natural gas that it consumes. The central thesis of the project on which this report is based is that as the UK’s gas import dependence has grown, it has effectively been ‘globalising’ its gas security; consequently UK consumers are increasingly exposed to events in global gas markets.

When the UKERC TPA team completed its first assessment of the evidence on the costs and impacts of intermittent generation on the British electricity system, the conclusion was that the additional costs would be relatively low, adding around 5-8 per MWh to the cost of the renewable electricity generated. This was based on a review of the available evidence, most of which did not envisage more than 20% of electricity to be sourced from intermittent renewables.

Since then, the UKs targets for renewable generation have been set considerably higher than this, and a number of significant new studies have been carried out into the likely effects of a much higher proportion of renewable electricity in the UK mix.

This project provides an update to the original 2006 UKERC report, reviewing the new evidence for the impacts associated with higher shares ofrenewable generation and

UKERC research highlights ‘lack of a clear vision of the future role for gas’ in the UK’s energy system, and cautions that, without CCS, a second ‘dash for gas’ could compromise decarbonisation ambitions. Please download the report using the button above.

Current policy debates and energy scenarios for the UK highlight the different possible ways of transforming the energy system in order to meet long-term national policy goals, including those of building a low carbon economy, achieving energy security and affordability, and mitigating environmental impacts. Although there has been much previous research on what publics think about specific ways of producing or consuming energy, we know far less about public perceptions, attitudes and values when elicited in relation to whole energy system change as an interconnected set of transformations in the systems of supply, demand, infrastructure and human behaviour.

Greater understanding of public acceptability of whole energy system change will present both opportunities, and also highlight challenges, for the delivery of UK energy policy and transitions. The research had three empirical phases: interviews with key stakeholders, a series of six in-depth deliberative workshops held with publics in England, Scotland and Wales, and a nationally representative survey (Great Britain, n=2,441). This report represents a synthesis of key findings drawn from the two core datasets relating to public perceptions and preferences i.e. the workshops and the survey.

This report examines the key uncertainties facing the UK’s planned low carbon transition, and identifies policies and strategies to mitigate or better understand them. It focuses on technical, economic, political and social uncertainties that could affect the achievement of agreed climate change targets between now and 2030.

The report shows that action can be taken to mitigate many of these uncertainties. In cases where it is not possible to significantly reduce them – at least in the short term – complementary strategies can be pursued. These include providing support for a diverse range of potential technologies and measures, and using trials and evaluations to identify those that are most effective. They also include making greater use of analytical tools that improve understanding of uncertainties and their potential impacts.

This report covers issues that are of current or future foreseeable importance, with a particular emphasis on those that have a strong global dimension.

The report starts with a very brief summary of the global context for energy (section 1), before briefly linking together the major issues affecting UK energy choices (section 2), and exploring through futures scenarios how these choices might play out in the years to 2050 (section 3). Section 4 then covers the major issues in more detail: the potential drivers of UK energy demand; how key components of the UK’s energy supply could evolve (with a focus on natural gas security and the role of innovation in low-carbon technologies); how public attitudes and values could shape the future direction of the UK energy system; how energy markets in the UK could evolve, in the context of developments within the EU; and what the impacts of energy system change might be on energy costs and bills, and on national and global ecosystem services.

This report summarises the findings, revealing why homeowners renovate and why they decide to improve their home energy efficiency.

This research helps explain why homeowners decide on energy efficiency renovations, and why they are even thinking about renovations in the first

What might community energy in the UK look like in the long term ? What does it need for it to thrive ?

This report provides a summary of practitioner and stakeholder responses to these questions, and many more, that explore the future of community energy in the UK.

Through a series of workshops held across the UK over the winter of 2018-19, invited participants were encouraged to explore and debate the future of community energy.

We found that community energy actors feel they have lots to offer to, and gain from, the transition to a decentralised and flexible energy system. The system appears to be moving towards a future where there is a clear need for organisations that combine technical knowledge with the skills and trust to effectively engage citizens – such as community energy groups.

Social Scientists at the University of Edinburgh reveal that energy activities of UK local authorities focus on heat and energy efficiency for a low carbon, low energy building stock.

This research maps energy initiatives across all UK Local Authorities for the first time, revealing considerable regional and national variation in activity. The research also examines a sample of energy projects in depth from 40 local authorities and compares local authority engagement in Britain and Europe.

Local authority energy initiatives were found to be innovative and enterprising, with multiple objectives from income generation and carbon saving, to reducing fuel poverty. Developments are however hampered by austerity in public finances, lack of local powers over energy and policy uncertainty.

This report from the Technology and Policy Assessment (TPA) function of the UK Energy Research Centre examines the merits of a range of different policies that offer the prospect of CO2 emissions reduction from road transport. It addresses the following key question: What policies are effective at reducing carbon emissions from surface passenger transport?

This report does not undertake new modelling or empirical research; rather it provides a thorough review of the current state of knowledge on the subject, guided by experts and in consultation with a range of stakeholders. The project team undertook a systematic search for every report and paper related to the assessment question. Experts and stakeholders were invited to comment and contribute through an expert group. A team of expert consultants was commissioned to categorise, review and distil the evidence. This tightly specified search revealed over 500 reports and papers on the subject, each of which was categorised and assessed for relevance.

The prices paid for electricity by domestic customers in the UK has been a regular discussion point in both policy debate and the media. A particular concern is the contribution that policies to incentivise low-carbon generation and energy saving make to the bills paid by householders. In response to these concerns, the UK Energy Research Centre’s Technology and Policy Assessment team examined in detail the data available on prices in the UK and other countries to address the question: How do the impacts of government policies funded through consumer electricity bills differ between countries?

This report reviews evidence on electricity prices paid by household (i.e. domestic) consumers with a focus on the UK and selected case study countries (Germany, France, Sweden and Australia), supplemented by consolidated EU-wide data to provide a broader context. Gas prices were not examined in detail because to date, policy has generally had a much greater impact on electricity prices, and UK gas prices are in the lower quartile of the EU range for all domestic consumers and almost all commercial and industrial consumers.

Key findings

• UK domestic electricity prices are higher than many EU countries - but not amongst the highest. They are around the median of those in Western Europe.
• Countries make different choices over which categories of consumer bear which costs, for example how costs are shared between industry and households. Countries also differ in terms of resources, the mix of power stations, and network costs. As a result caution should be exercised when comparing electricity prices between countries. There are significant differences in price breakdown between countries, even for those with broadly similar total prices.
• Wholesale energy and supplier costs together make the biggest component of UK domestic electricity price.
• UK policy costs are the lowest amongst the study countries, and total UK low-carbon policy support costs per MWh are below the EU average, despite an above-average share of electricity that receives support. Policy has contributed to increases in domestic electricity prices in the UK and other countries over the past five years but UK domestic electricity bills have not increased at the same rate as prices, due to the effects of energy efficiency policies designed to reduce overall consumption.
• There are a plethora of policies (both current and past) and taxes. This, together with a conflation of social policies and low-carbon policies, and of policy impacts with concerns over market structures, charging regimes and supplier profit margins, creates a very complex overall picture.
• The evidence for policy impacts is largely well understood but complexity creates the opportunity for differing interpretations or selection of the facts. This may help to explain some of the continuing controversy in the area since it allows different stakeholders to interpret and represent the facts differently, or select different subsets of those facts, to suit vested interests or political positions.

Electricity price formation is complex and affected by policies in the UK and all of the case studies considered in this review. Different policy approaches, geographical factors and mixes of power generation mean that comparison requires considerable caution, avoiding over-simplification. Nevertheless there is no evidence to support the contention that policy costs are either the principal source of high domestic power prices in the UK or are high compared to the country case studies or indeed the majority of Western European nations.

Diversity in research

Ensuring diversity in research and innovation is vital for effective delivery of the Governments Clean Growth, and broader Industrial Strategies. As the Industrial Strategy argues, organisations with the highest levels of diversity are 15% more likely to outperform their rivals.

The Whole Systems Networking Fund

Over the past two and a half years, the UK Energy Research Centre has managed 1.5m of Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) funding through the Whole Systems Networking Fund (WSNF). It has worked with stakeholders from universities, public-private partnerships, and NGOs, to pilot a model to diversify the UKRI energy portfolio through inclusiveness, encouraging gender balance and the nurturing of new voices and ideas.

Key findings

This report details the operation of the fundand provides an overview of the funded projects. It also summarises thekey learning from the programme, grouping findings into the following categories:

• Measures to broaden the talent pool: particularly around gender
• Connecting disciplinary focused and whole systems energy research
• Working with a wide range of stakeholders
• Learn lessons from best practice within the UK and internationally

At the conclusion of the Whole Systems Networking Fund, 80% of the funding had been allocated to projects led by women. Demonstrating that with the appropriate mechanisms in place mainstreaming gender balance across the energy portfolio is achievable.

Steering Committee consisting of female representatives from key organisations in the NI heat sector, including the Department for the Economy, the Utility Regulator, a local renewable industry group (NIRIG), the transmission and distribution system operators (NI Electricity Networks and SONI), an energy charity (NEA Northern Ireland), the Consumer Council and a public affairs consultancy (Stratagem).