Results: Searching for 'Modelling'

• The UK needs innovation to meet its carbon targets and for this process to beeffective and rapid – with several critical components:market confidence, finance,public policy and thecapability to innovate
• Collaboration and shared understanding is required – involving interactions across science, business and government to facilitate knowledge transfer and learning – it is easier to achieve a transition with a shared understanding of the drivers of new low carbon energy technologies
• The slower the pace of energy innovation, the less time the UK will have to transition to a low carbon economy and the more expensive it will be to do so
• Successful innovation systems often involve open and iterative processes, which are complex. They depend on multiple interactions between different actors
• Policy interventions are required to drive innovation in energy and low carbon – business needs certainty so policy stability matters
• Industry and government should work together to set strategic priorities – low carbon markets are almost entirely driven by public policy but delivered by private sector firms
• Successful innovation in low carbon energy requires new technology capabilities, new markets, new business models together with appropriate changes to the regulatory framework

This workshop had several aims:

1. To increase understanding of the different approaches to ABM and their applicability to informing energy and other policy intervention design
2. To identify policy areas where ABM techniques could be usefully applied and to examine how they could be incorporated into the policy making process.
3. To develop joint research proposals aimed at relevant research funding bodies.
4. To develop relationships between key researchers in this emerging area.

• Results are as reliable as possible, since results from the ECOSSE model are directly reported (except for non-default fertiliser and yield improvement)
• Comparatively fast to use
• Future modifications are relatively straightforward, since results for different transitions, climates and regions, for example, can be obtained from the underlying model and used to create a new look-up table, without further modelling work to approximate the results of the ECOSSE model

• The data storage space for the meta-model is comparatively large
• Results are restricted to those considered by the model (although use of regression equations for non-default options works around this).

• models 2025, 2030, 2035 and 2040 spot years;
• constrains the operation of H₂ turbines to a maximum of 40% as opposed to the baseload operation see in previous scenarios

• HiBaseDecarb in 2040 with relaxed carbon intensity (by removing proxy CfDs and CO₂ price) to see the resulting emission intensity
• On Central Decarb in 2030 and 2040 to explore ‘small’ changes to Gas CCS capacity to see the impact on wholesale prices and emission intensity of power generation
• Increasing (and removing) CCS capacity and removing (adding) the same amount of CCGT in 2030 and 2040 to keep capacity margin at similar levels to Central Decarb (+/- 1 GW in 2030 and +/- 3 GW in 2040)

• Central Decarb results in an annual baseload price level between HiBaseDecarb and HiRenDecarb in 2030 but a very similar price level to HiRenDecarb (higher than HighBaseDecarb) in 2040 given the ongoing role of unabated gas plant at the margin
• Although outturn hourly prices can be volatile in the presence of significant intermittent renewables they appear particularly sensitive to the level to the level of subsidized low carbon baseload plant in the 2040s, as this leads to collapse in prices for a significant portion of the year when demand is low, as seen in the Central Decarb sensitivities and the original HighBaseDecarb run
• Removing the distortions to dispatch and prices caused by CfDs on baseload plant is unlikely to change the economics for a mid-merit H₂ turbine plant as this does not materially change the highest 1/3 of prices seen across the year (as shown in the HighBaseDecarb sensitivity)

• Overall the impact of changing CCGT with CCS technical parameters on whole system CO₂ emissions and generation costs are small (however, there are some caveats in relation to the perfect foresight modelling)
• Changes in the market conditions such as interconnection and storage have a larger impact on system generation and the levels of flexibility provided by CCGT CCS plant.
• In the Base case, a CCGT CCS plant has an annual average load factor of ca 75%, indicating it is running baseload whenever it can but is providing downwardflexibility in times of high wind generation.
• CCGT CCS plant require around 70-80 starts per year in the Base market environment. However, with storage at current levels or a higher cost of imports, the requirement can increase to around 130-140 starts per year.
• One caveat to note is that perfect foresight with a 3 day look ahead is used in the Plexos model, which could not be achieved in reality. This allows the model to optimise around wind and demand variations and may therefore underestimate the importance of flexibility parameters like ramp rates

• Strategic Planning. Decisions are required on issues such as siting of power stations, selection of station/capture type, network layout, use of storage assets etc. In all cases a view needs to be taken on what the ‘ultimate’ system might look like and how it would develop. OEMs need to understand such issues for strategic marketing/product development purposes.
• System ‘Front End’ Design. This will inform decisions on more detailed aspects of design such as pipeline sizing & routing, initial specifications for compression requirements, front end design of power plant.
• System Detailed Design. This will inform design and selection of the components of the network (eg power stations, pipes, compressor stations, storage sites), and understanding of how they are best interconnected.
• System Operation and Maintenance. It is critical to understand how the system will operate once built, both under steady state conditions and dynamically as a result of load following, planned and unplanned outages of assets etc. Operators within the system need to understand how the CCS system will impact on the key objective of ‘keeping the lights on’ and how the constraints imposed by the electrical system will impact the CCS chain’s operability.

• First, we verify that the FORTRAN subroutine (DRAGFO) used to simulate a tidal turbine in Telemac2D produces the same results when launched with one processor as it does with several processors.
• Next, a simple flow than the wake downstream a tidal turbine is analyzed: this simple case is the wake of a flow around a cylinder, which is simulated for two models of turbulence in Telemac2D (k-epsilon model and constant viscosity model). The validated results from this analysis (mesh size, turbulence model ...) were used to get some guidance in our study which concerns the flow around the tidal turbines and not around cylinders.
•  Third, the wake of a tidal turbine in a flume is simulated and validated in Telemac2D using laboratory measurements made by the LNHE department of EDF. The methodology for simulating one tidal turbine is defined, in particular a drag force is applied on a rectangular box in order to simulate the drag force due to the turbine.
• Once it was established that a single tidal turbine in a flume could be modeled, two varying alignments of tidal turbine arrays were simulated in Telemac2D using the same two models of turbulence.At this stage, two methodologies are defined:
  • the first one for the method where a rectangular box is used for each turbine, and
  • the second methodology for the global box containing allturbines method. In this second case, the methodology also explains how to calculate an equivalent drag coefficient to simulate a set of turbines in a large scale basin.
• In both methodologies, the way of choosing the mesh size (near and far from the rectangular box(es) and in the transition area ranging from a fine mesh to a larger mesh), the turbulence model, the drag coefficient, and the limitations are given.

• First, it is verified that the subroutine (SOURCE) used to simulate a tidal turbine in Telemac3D produces the same results when launched with one processor as it does with several processors.
• Second, a tidal turbine in a flume is simulated with Telemac3D.

• The preliminary work to better understand the turbine using more basic modellingapproaches.
• the development and application of the CFD model of the turbine.

• the development of a basic analytical model of a high solidity turbine, in order to support the design of a credible turbine rotor; and
• the CFD analysis of this design, in order to produce results for the velocity field in the wake of the turbine.

• A review of the existing literature provides an overview of the available modelling options and also provides a basis for the selection of an appropriate level of model sophistication.
• The GH Blockage model is described and the rationalised modelling approach is justified. The GH Blockage model uses Potential flow theory to evaluate the effect of bounding surfaces and/or other surrounding turbines on a tidal turbine under investigation.
• The model is used to predict the three dimensional flow field in and around the tidal turbine, which enables the change in turbine performance to be predicted. The altered flow field around the turbine is also used in modelling the wake mixing and recovery process.
• A list of key assumptions that the GH Blockage model makes is provided along with the relevant references to existing theory.
• The method by which the mathematical models are implemented into a working code is described, as is the way in which the GH Blockage model to be incorporated within the GH TidalFarmer Beta code.
• Flow diagrams of the GH Blockage model algorithms are presented and examples of the outputs are provided

• A review of the existing literature is presented which provides an overview of both the applicable modelling options and previous experimental campaigns which characterise the wake region of interest.
• The GH near wake model is described and the modelling approach justified.
• The model is used to predict the three dimensional flow field which is then passed to the GH far wake model as an input.
• The GH Blockage model feeds the model when appropriate, providing a corrected rotor thrust and an altered flow field around the turbine.
• A list of key assumptions that the GH near wake model makes is provided along with the relevant references to existing theory.
• The method by which the mathematical models are implemented intoa working code is described, as is the way in which the GH near wake model is to be incorporated within the GH TidalFarmer Beta code.
• Flow diagrams of the GH near wake model algorithms are presented and example outputs provided

• Section 1: The scope of the documents and its key objectives 
• ;Section 2: The architectureof the developed code, the core aspects of a multi-body dynamic solver and key time-domain implementation details;
• Section 3: The hydrodynamics module ;
• Section 4: The wave analysis module and its functionality;
• Section 5: The moorings module and its functionality(exemplified via a case study);
• Section 6: The power take-off (PTO) and control modules and their functionality;
• Section 7: The optimiser module and its functionality;
• Section 8: Case studies that outline initial results;
• Section 9: A summary of the key features implemented to date and planned extensions

• Section 1: Introduction
  • Scope of the document and the relationship of this document to other deliverables.
  • Summary of the closely related deliverable WG1 WP2 D1, which describes the physical representation of wave energy converters in a thirdgeneration spectral wave model, is provided,
  • Acceptance criteria for this deliverable
• Section 2: Overview of development strategy
  • Methods for achieving the key desirable characteristics of the new software (flexibility, user-friendliness, and reliability)
  • How the software modification will be carried out on four separate key elements successively, and then the integration of these elements that will provide the final software tool. Key elements:
  • representation of a wave energy converter,
  • location of the wave energy converters,
  • input of wave energy converter parameters,
  • output of wave energy converter power capture.
  • The software development tools which will be used for the project are described and the reason for the specific tool choice is explained.
  • The Microsoft VisualStudio program will be used for interactive development of the code, and the Git source code management (or revisioning) software will be used to manage changes to the code.
• Section 3: Selection of spectral wave model
  • Two open source models, SWAN andTOMAWAC, are identified as good candidates and a close comparison of the two models is carried out.
  • The comparison includes an assessment of the physical processes represented in the models and their ease of use and modification.
  • Two test cases are implemented in both models to aid in the comparison.
  • Although the models solve the same equation in a totally different way, it is shown that the results are very similar, and that neither model can be eliminated as a potential candidate based on physical process representation.
  • The final model choice is TOMAWAC, because it was developed at EDF which is associated withthe PerAWaT project and support for interpretation of the source code is more readily available.
  • However, both models were deemed suitable for the task, and therefore should there be an unforeseen problem with TOMAWAC, it would be possible to proceed with SWAN.
• Section 4: Core elements of software tool
  • Describe seach of the four core elements in detail, and outlines the development process for each of them.
  • New subroutines, and existing subroutines and variables which require modification are identified.
  • Additionally, for each core element the method for verification that the added code is working correctly is described.
• Section 5: Validation of the SpecWec tool
  • Validation of the representation of wave energy converters in a spectral wave model.
  • Two key parameters which will be addressed during the validation process are identified as wave energy converter density, and wave energy converter performance.
  • Because there is no wave farm data available for the validation process, the spectral representation of wave energy converters will be compared with both the time-domain model WaveFarmer being developed at Garrad Hassan, and the wave tank experimental data which is due to be carried out at Queen’s University Belfast as part of the PerAWaT project.

1. model the interaction of three dimensional unsteady flow and turbine wakes within an array;
2. verify available numerical models; and
3. implement an appropriate free surface model within Code_Saturne.

This report provides the reader with an introduction, methodology and guide to implementation of the work conducted to provide a suitable means of tidal stream modelling. The tidal stream modelling is seen as an important component to the whole project since it provides the necessary upstream boundary condition to a small array of marine current turbines at the meso-scale using EDF’s Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) solver ‘Code_Saturne’

• Introduction
  • The Level Set Method
  • Ghost Fluid Method
• Methodology
  • Calculation of Level Set with re-distancing
  • Calculation of slop and curvature and free surface
  • Calculation methodology for the Ghost Fluid Method
• Implementing unsteady upstream boundary condition
• Implemention
  • A review on previous Connectivity modelling
  • A review on previous Re-Distancing modelling
  • Current programming strategy
• New Modules
• Results

• The report first introduces the two-dimensional Shallow Water Equations (SWEs) and the chosen numerical method (discontinuous Galerkin finite element method) used to solve these equations.
• The methodology is then explained for couplingLinear Momentum Actuator Disc Theory (LMADT) to the two-dimensional hydrodynamic model DG-ADCIRC by means of including a line sink of momentum within the discontinuous Galerkin scheme.
• The verification of the algorithm is undertaken for a number of problems where an array of tidal devices is located in an idealised channel, with different configurations and problem settings.
• Lastly, preliminary results are given for the Anglesey Skerries, using the modified DGADCIRC code that uses LMADT tocalculate the relevant line sink of momentum in the solution domain

• Introduction to project and work package
• Free surface methods
• Implementation
• Validaiton cases

• The Aim of MD 5.2
• The Hydrodynamic Flow Model
• Calibration and Validation
  • Reason for validation:
  • Validation 1: In the Time Domain
  • Validation 2: In the Frequency Domain
  • Conclusions from the 2D validation
  • 3D Validation:
    • What statistic to use?
    • Comparison in 3D
    • Comparison in 3D: TGL
    • ADP Shear Data: 1 – 1.2 m/s
    • Model Shear Data: 1 – 1.2 m/s
    • Direct comparison of Shear Profiles: 1 – 1.2 m/s
• Key Points – 2D
• Key points – 3D comparison

• MD1: Development of a CFD model of the  TGL turbine at the EMEC site.
• Methods:
  • Sliding Mesh Method developed for RANS and LES
  • Synthetic Eddy Method used to represent  depth profile of mean and unsteady flow
  • LES with sliding mesh method and SEM inflow to predict 1 MW turbine loads
• Findings
  • Accurate prediction of power and thrust
  • Measured shear significantly affects cyclic blade loading
  • LES with SEM inflow predicts blade root bending moment affecting fatigue design
• Aim Achieved: To establish capability of CFD for unsteady load prediction in realistic flows
• Lessons and Next Steps

• Modelling gravity effects with a sufficiently fine grid where needed is important. The solubility of CO₂ in brine and the effect of capillary pressure should normally be included in dynamic models, but the effect of diffusion is not likely to be significant. The effectof hysteresis on relative permeabilities will be required to model residual trapping as it may be an important trapping mechanism after injection has ceased for poorly confined structures.
• It was concluded that the bulk of the dynamic modelling could be performed isothermally with sufficient accuracy using the industry stand ard finite difference ‘black-oil’ simulator ECLIPSE100™, and appropriate PVT data input, which was defined. This solution has the advantage of speed over the ECLIPSE300™/CO₂STORE module compositional combination. It was proposed that a streamline simulator, such as 3DSL™, be considered for simulation of fine scale models of Exemplar open aquifer units as this would enable greater detail to be modelled due to faster run speeds. Streamline simulation is particularly effective where modelling displacement is more important than pressure changes, as for open aquifers.
• It was also proposed that a single simulator, GEM™, be used for well injectivity and associated thermal and geomechanical sensitivity calculations.
• It was recommended that the most comprehensive set of consistent CO₂/brine relative permeability and capillary pressure data available from a Canadian dataset be used for the modelling.

This report summarizes the key issues and outcomes from a Research Hotel on Energy Systems Modelling. This event, which included the MARKAL modelling teams of the USEPA and UKERC, together with additional external experts, was held at the Policy Studies Institute in London from February 6th to 10th, 2006.

• Background
• Literature Review
• Project Aims
• gCCS
• Model Development
• Model Outputs
• Shell Secondment
• QUEST
• The Quest Pipeline
• Modelling the pipeline
• Validation
• Conclusion
• ETI Projects

• How will the impacts of tidal range and tidal current energy schemes positioned around the UK combine to form an overall effect?
  -- Optimisation for environmental/human impact, energy output, economics or power smoothing is needed if the overall tidal resource is to be exploited to its full potential.
• Will the extraction of tidal energy resources in one area affect the tidal energy resources at distant sites around the UK and Europe?
  -- The CSM scenario run outputs give a clear indication as to the impact at far-field UK sites. The impacts across Europe vary depending on the scenario but the most extreme case of both tidal range and tidal current deployment, shows that there would be an impact on the European coastline.
• What constraints might these interactions place on the design, development and location of future systems?
  -- The interactions within and between schemes shows that the level of tidal range deployment (for near-field and far-field effects) and tidal current deployment (mainly near-field to regional impacts) would place constraints on the schemes. Both effects could potentially impact the success of projects. Importantly, the installation of later schemes could have an impact (positive or negative) on an existing scheme or its effects.

1. How will the interactions between tidal range and tidal current systems positioned around the UK’s waters combine to form an overall effect.
2. Will the extraction of tidal energy resource in one area impact the tidal energy resource at distant sites around the UK and Europe.
3. What constraints might these interactions place on the design, development and location of future systems.

• Part A: Tidal Range
  Potentially feasible locations for tidal range schemes that could give peak power output greater than 100MW have been identified giving:
  • 10 barrage alignments – selected based on a literature review of previous studies; and
  • 11 lagoon alignments – selected based on the tidal range, water depth and coastline shape.
• Part B: Tidal Current (including Tidal Fences) 
  The original scope was to identify farms over 100MWp. However, this criteria was relaxed (to 60MWp) to account for most potentially economic locations in UK waters.
  • 20 known tidal current farm locations were selected from literature review.

• That any credible tidal current development does not impact on the tidal range sites.
• That there is only a minimal impact of tidal range sites on tidal current sites, in the most extreme cases. In less extreme cases, there is essentiallyno impact.
• Extreme scenarios suggest that the Severn Outer barrage has a significantly more severe far-field impact (on tidal current sites) in comparison with the combination of the Cardiff-Weston barrage and Bridgewater Bay lagoon.
• ‘Mega’ schemes with dual generation (Severn Outer, Solway Firth) do not work as intended, and effectively cannot move the water away fast enough, impeding generation. Noticeable benefits in using Rolls-Royce turbines in dual-mode schemes were observed for the Solway Firth, Mersey, and the Wash as there are reduced impacts on downstream tidal range than equivalent dual schemes.
• Large reduction in downstream tidal range for major barrages/lagoons in estuaries (Bridgwater Bay, Cardiff-Weston, Mersey, Thames, Wash, Humber) reduces their energy output compared to 0D modelling, as expected.
• Much less effect on downstream tidal range for lagoons on open coastlines (Rye, Dymchurch, Cumbria, Wigtown) or smaller lagoons, suggesting these may be worth further investigation.
• The increased tidal range which is visible, in particular in the Irish Sea and surroundings, when there is large scale deployment of tidal range schemes in that area, is unlikely to be acceptable in terms of environmental (and safety) impacts.
• Significant interactions (i.e. a negative effect on tidal range and potential energy) within the Severn – e.g. the Cardiff-Weston barrage reduces energy output for lagoons downstream.
• Almost no interaction between tidal range schemes in Irish Sea, despite the impacts on increased tidal range discussed earlier.
• In UK waters, large scale utilisation of the tidal resource requires significant optimisation to avoid potentially unacceptable cumulative impacts and to ensure the most energy can be extracted from the resource (potentially at least cost, with least impact on the grid etc.).

• Part A – The TELEMAC system: Installation Guide,
• Part B – The CSM Functional and Testing Report,
• Part C – The CSM Web User Interface: User Guide.

1. an Excel model with parametric representations of cost drivers such as size and arrangements of civils works, turbine choices, O&M choices etc;
2. a model report describing the model, assumptions and case study examples, and
3. a user guide.

• Part A: Assesses the potential Tidal Range sites and identifies 10 barrage and 11 lagoon sites;
• Part B Assesses the potential Tidal Current sites and identifies 18 sites.

This UKERC Research Landscape provides an overview of the competencies and publicly funded activities inEnergy Systems Modelling research, development and demonstration (RD&D) in the UK. It covers the main funding streams, research providers, infrastructure, networks and UK participation in international activities.

UKERC ENERGY RESEARCH LANDSCAPE: ENERGY SYSTEMS MODELLING

• Section 1: An overview which includes a broad characterisation of research activity in the sector and the key research challenges
• Section 2: An assessment of UK capabilities in relation to wider international activities, in the context of market potential
• Section 3: Major funding streams and providers of basic research along with a brief commentary
• Section 4: Major funding streams and providers of applied research along with a brief commentary
• Section 5: Major funding streams for demonstration activity along with major projects and a brief commentary
• Section 6: Research infrastructure and other major research assets (e.g. databases, models)
• Section 7: Research networks, mainly in the UK, but also European networks not covered by the EU Framework Research and Technology Development (RTD) Programmes
• Section 8: UK participation in energy-related EU Framework Research and Technology Development (RTD) Programmes
• Section 9: UK participation in wider international initiatives, including those supported by the International Energy Agency

This report clarifies the strengths and weaknesses of CGE models for investigating economywide rebound effects, summarises the methodology, results and implications of eight existing studies and highlight priorities for future research.