UKERC EDC: Publications

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Abstract:

Various scenarios for the UK’s power fleet composition in 2030 and 2040 were developed. Dispatch modelling in Plexos was carried out by Baringa on these fleets to investigate the role gas fed plants might have in future. This includes the ability to study load factors, stop/starts etc, and together with concomitant pricing, provide a picture of investment remuneration. The effect of key drivers is studied e.g. gas price

A new Central Decarb has been established for this analysis, which aims to provide a scenario that is somewhere between the previous HiBaseDecarb and HiRenDecarb scenarios in terms of capacity mix (provided by ETI) and emissions intensity and which also

models 2025, 2030, 2035 and 2040 spot years;
constrains the operation of H₂ turbines to a maximum of 40% as opposed to the baseload operation see in previous scenarios

Anumber of sensitivities have also been run including:

HiBaseDecarb in 2040 with relaxed carbon intensity (by removing proxy CfDs and CO₂ price) to see the resulting emission intensity
On Central Decarb in 2030 and 2040 to explore ‘small’ changes to Gas CCS capacity to see the impact on wholesale prices and emission intensity of power generation
Increasing (and removing) CCS capacity and removing (adding) the same amount of CCGT in 2030 and 2040 to keep capacity margin at similar levels to Central Decarb (+/- 1 GW in 2030 and +/- 3 GW in 2040)

The modelling results for Central Decarb and sensitivities indicate the sensitivity of wholesale prices and emission intensity of power generation to CfD eligible low carbon baseload plant on the system

Central Decarb results in an annual baseload price level between HiBaseDecarb and HiRenDecarb in 2030 but a very similar price level to HiRenDecarb (higher than HighBaseDecarb) in 2040 given the ongoing role of unabated gas plant at the margin
Although outturn hourly prices can be volatile in the presence of significant intermittent renewables they appear particularly sensitive to the level to the level of subsidized low carbon baseload plant in the 2040s, as this leads to collapse in prices for a significant portion of the year when demand is low, as seen in the Central Decarb sensitivities and the original HighBaseDecarb run
Removing the distortions to dispatch and prices caused by CfDs on baseload plant is unlikely to change the economics for a mid-merit H₂ turbine plant as this does not materially change the highest 1/3 of prices seen across the year (as shown in the HighBaseDecarb sensitivity)

Publication Year:

2017

Publisher:

ETI

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5286/UKERC.EDC.000132

Author(s):

Baringa Partners LLP

Energy Category

Class Name:

Subclass Name:

Category Name:

Hydrogen and Fuel Cells

Hydrogen

Hydrogen storage

Language:

English

File Type:

application/pdf

File Size:

1254081 B

Rights:

Energy Technologies Institute Open Licence for Materials

Rights Overview:

The Energy Technologies Institute is making this document available to use under the Energy Technologies Institute Open Licence for Materials. Please refer to the Energy Technologies Institute website for the terms and conditions of this licence. The Information is licensed "as is" and the Energy Technologies Institute excludes all representations, warranties, obligations and liabilities in relation to the Information to the maximum extent permitted by law. The Energy Technologies Institute is not liable for any errors or omissions in the Information and shall not be liable for any loss, injury or damage of any kind caused by its use. This exclusion of liability includes, but is not limited to, any direct, indirect, special, incidental, consequential, punitive, or exemplary damages in each case such as loss of revenue, data, anticipated profits, and lost business. The Energy Technologies Institute does not guarantee the continued supply of the Information. Notwithstanding any statement to the contrary contained on the face of this document, the Energy Technologies Institute confirms that it has the right to publish this document.

Further information:

N/A

Region:

United Kingdom

Publication Type:

Technical Report

Subject:

Modelling

Theme(s):

Carbon Capture and Storage

Related Dataset(s):

Hydrogen Turbines Follow On - CCS and H2 Dispatch modelling - Scenarios 3 & 4 Results Spreadsheet