Heavy Duty Vehicle Efficiency Programme - On-Highway Market Analysis Project - Final Report
Patterson, J., Story, J. and White, B. Heavy Duty Vehicle Efficiency Programme - On-Highway Market Analysis Project - Final Report, ETI, 2016. https://doi.org/10.5286/UKERC.EDC.000738. Cite this using DataCite
The aim of this project is to provide an improved understanding of the current activities and trends occurring in the On-Highway Heavy Duty Vehicle arena. Future technologies and legislation are being assessed to further enhance the our knowledge of the existing market and anticipated future market state.
Demand for On Highway Heavy Duty Vehicles will grow from 3.34m vehicles in 2015 to 4.24m vehicles in 2030 (in the 6 large markets studied).
The majority of this growth will be in the >7.5 ton vehicle sector, as the Chinese and Indian road transportation markets mature from an “owner operator” model towards a “fleet operator” model. The increase in vehicle weight will increase demand for larger displacement engines (>6 litres) and also encourage further uptake of Automatic Manual Transmissions (AMT) at the expense of manual transmissions.
Diesel will remain as the dominant fuel type for HDVs with ~85% HDVs powered by Diesel Internal Combustion Engines in 2030.
It is expected that City Buses will have greater levels of hybridisation and there will be a variety of technical solutions for City Buses, including fully electric, as inner city air quality concerns and legislation increases.
Emissions legislation will continue to develop in the various regions, with increasing harmonisation between the standards. There is a trend towards increasing number of regulated pollutants, over a larger number of tests and an increased duration (life) that the vehicle must meet the targets. Some regions are beginning to use CO2 / fuel efficiency regulations and it is expected that this trend will spread to other regions over time