| Abstract |
Various scenarios for the UK’s power fleet composition in 2030 and 2040 were developed. Dispatch modelling in Plexos was carried out by Baringa on these fleets to investigate the role gas fed plants might have in future. This includes the ability to study load factors, stop/starts etc, and together with concomitant pricing, provide a picture of investment remuneration. The effect of key drivers is studied e.g. gas price
A new Central Decarb has been established for this analysis, which aims to provide a scenario that is somewhere between the previous HiBaseDecarb and HiRenDecarb scenarios in terms of capacity mix (provided by ETI) and emissions intensity and which also- models 2025, 2030, 2035 and 2040 spot years;
- constrains the operation of H2 turbines to a maximum of 40% as opposed to the baseload operation see in previous scenarios
Anumber of sensitivities have also been run including:- HiBaseDecarb in 2040 with relaxed carbon intensity (by removing proxy CfDs and CO2 price) to see the resulting emission intensity
- On Central Decarb in 2030 and 2040 to explore ‘small’ changes to Gas CCS capacity to see the impact on wholesale prices and emission intensity of power generation
- Increasing (and removing) CCS capacity and removing (adding) the same amount of CCGT in 2030 and 2040 to keep capacity margin at similar levels to Central Decarb (+/- 1 GW in 2030 and +/- 3 GW in 2040)
The modelling results for Central Decarb and sensitivities indicate the sensitivity of wholesale prices and emission intensity of power generation to CfD eligible low carbon baseload plant on the system- Central Decarb results in an annual baseload price level between HiBaseDecarb and HiRenDecarb in 2030 but a very similar price level to HiRenDecarb (higher than HighBaseDecarb) in 2040 given the ongoing role of unabated gas plant at the margin
- Although outturn hourly prices can be volatile in the presence of significant intermittent renewables they appear particularly sensitive to the level to the level of subsidized low carbon baseload plant in the 2040s, as this leads to collapse in prices for a significant portion of the year when demand is low, as seen in the Central Decarb sensitivities and the original HighBaseDecarb run
- Removing the distortions to dispatch and prices caused by CfDs on baseload plant is unlikely to change the economics for a mid-merit H2 turbine plant as this does not materially change the highest 1/3 of prices seen across the year (as shown in the HighBaseDecarb sensitivity)
|
