UKERC EDC: Publications

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Abstract:

This study investigates the costs that domestic electricity suppliers in Great Britain might face in 2030
Projections are made based on the assumption that, unless formally announced, no changes are made to today’s electricity market arrangements
Particular focus is given to the hourly variation and seasonal shape of costs faced by suppliers
Hourly retail cost stacks in 2030 are modelled for the average domestic electricity consumer in the East Midlands

Modelling was carried out under three scenarios:

National Grid Two Degrees (NG 2 Degrees): A relatively high demand scenario, with relatively high renewables, nuclear and imports, but reduced levels of CCGT
ETI Long-Term Role of Gas (ETI LT ROG): The highest-demand scenario modelled, with high levels of renewables, CCGT and storage, but reduced nuclear capacity
ETI Consumers, Vehicles and Energy Integration (ETI EVEI): With demand the lowest of the three, this scenario has the highest levels of nuclear, but the lowest levels of renewables and storage

These scenarios were drawn from public sources, and were chosen to represent a range of carbon intensities and levels of renewable generation, as well as different levels of electrification (e.g. of transport) and flexible demand The modelling outputs are intended to illustrate:

Trends in supplier costs that might occur between 2017 and 2030 if market arrangements remain unchanged
Differences between scenarios that can be seen, reflecting different technology and market assumptions
Issues that could result if arrangements remain unchanged over horizon to 2030

This Technical Report is one of the deliverables associated with this stage of the project. Associated deliverables are:

A word document providing interpretation of the findings in this slide deck
A high level viewpoint for senior stakeholders summarising the work, results and insights
An Excel workbook containing the key inputs and a
full set of hourly outputs by scenario

Publication Year:

2018

Publisher:

ETI

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5286/ukerc.edc.000718

Author(s):

Baringa Partners LLP

Energy Category

Class Name:

Subclass Name:

Category Name:

Other Cross-Cutting Technologies or Research

Energy Economics

Language:

English

File Type:

application/pdf

File Size:

2614402 B

Rights:

Energy Technologies Institute Open Licence for Materials

Rights Overview:

The Energy Technologies Institute is making this document available to use under the Energy Technologies Institute Open Licence for Materials. Please refer to the Energy Technologies Institute website for the terms and conditions of this licence. The Information is licensed "as is" and the Energy Technologies Institute excludes all representations, warranties, obligations and liabilities in relation to the Information to the maximum extent permitted by law. The Energy Technologies Institute is not liable for any errors or omissions in the Information and shall not be liable for any loss, injury or damage of any kind caused by its use. This exclusion of liability includes, but is not limited to, any direct, indirect, special, incidental, consequential, punitive, or exemplary damages in each case such as loss of revenue, data, anticipated profits, and lost business. The Energy Technologies Institute does not guarantee the continued supply of the Information. Notwithstanding any statement to the contrary contained on the face of this document, the Energy Technologies Institute confirms that it has the right to publish this document.

Further information:

N/A

Region:

United Kingdom

Publication Type:

Technical Report

Subject:

Energy Scenarios

Theme(s):

Energy Storage and Distribution

Related Dataset(s):

2030 Electricity Price Time Series: Methodology and key inputs - spreadsheet