Results: Searching for 'Residential '

• We welcome that a target of 600,000 heat pumps is included in the plan as this provides some clear direction for industry. However this is purely a target and it requires a thorough policy and governance framework to both support deployment and protect consumers.
• Despite the clear case for district heating, it is overlooked in the plan, and there is a lack of focus on energy efficiency despite the expected centrality of both of these technologies.

Part of the Energy-PIECES project, this report was developed during a secondment at the Energy Savings Trust.

• This deliverable is number 2 of 7 in Work Package 2.
• It presents the initial approach to the costing methodology for thermal efficiency improvements to be employed by the project and incorporated into the computer model being developed.
• Accurate cost information for retrofit interventions is key to ensuring the identification and development of the optimum solutions for each housing archetype previously identified in deliverable D2.1.
• Costs of two types are considered:
  • Unit costs
  • Other fixed costs
• Costs are input for:
  • Loft insulation
  • Cavity wall insulation
  • Hot water tank insulation
  • Floor insulation
  • Replacement windows

• Pre-1919 detached houses
• Pre-1919 mid-terraced houses
• Pre-1919 converted flats
• 1919-1944 semi detached houses
• 1945-1964 semi detached houses

• To address the needs and requirements from a broad range of stakeholders in the national retrofit process
• To formulate a preliminary hierarchy of value of ‘home thermal efficiency’ for stakeholders
• To understand the various barriers and obstacles to the success of a national retrofit implementation plan
• To capture views from the participants and propose a strategy for capturing responses from other under-represented groups.
• To translate the outputs of the workshop into a framework for future deliverables to use as measures of success

1. To cover a sufficient range of house types to gain a good picture of the issues involved with implementing a mass retrofit programme
2. To take the whole house solutions in WP3.3 and examine them with regards to buildability, cost, carbon effectiveness and customer acceptance
3. To test out whole house solutions proposals on the most frequently occurring house types across the UK, focusing on the variations in construction and housing typology in England, Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales

1. 1) Preparation to 2020
2. 2) Retrofit rollout 2020 to 2030
3. 3) Future scenarios 2030 to 2050.

• The 4 hour detailed survey with 2 people is possible (even for the most difficult house) and there is scope to reducethis further.
• It has been shown to be possible to retrofit the two levels of intervention, Retro Fix and Retro Plus, across the modelled house types in 10 elapsed days or less (depending on property size/ complexity and weather permitting) using a team of 4 poly-competent retrofitters.
• Increasing competencies will be vital to deliver retrofit brilliantly and at scale - new training systems are required to provide an up-skilling route for people wishing to enter the retrofit industry.
• New or simplified accreditation and warranty systems are needed for retrofit
• Standard retrofit solutions will help generate efficiency gains and simplify the provision of materials.
• Progress has been made to understand how cost is built up within the supply chain but further work is needed to allow key players to share cost information.
• Retrofit cost of under£10,000 for most house types is feasible but challenging for most house types based on our understanding of how cost is built up within the supply chain. More specific cost data will be generated for common house archetypes; these will be presented in follow up reports for this work package.

1. the individual building level, and
2. the UK housing stock level.

• A stock model that uses a simplified energy model as its calculation engine.
• A simplified model for individual dwelling calculations (the same model as used in the stock model).
• A detailed simulation model (or models) for individual dwelling modelling in situations where such a model is necessary.

• Develop a multi-skill site approach which enables seamless, cost-effective site work with minimal disruption to householders; instead of a series of trade based activities.
• Develop factory prepared kits, ready to fit, with short leadtimes; which speed up installation, minimise disruption and give assured quality performance.
• Generate supply solutions that treat retrofit as a System solution instead of a series of bolt on interventions. With product and service providers acting together there will be more potential to improve overall thermal performance, reduce cost and minimise householder disruption.

• a summary of 52 semi-structured interviews with householders who have experienced a building retrofit
• interviews were held with both owner occupiers and with tenants of social housing
• key conclusions from the interviews include
  • need to design out delays from the retrofit process,
  • provide suitable advice as and when the householder wants it,
  • consider the reduction of VAT from retrofit works and
  • design solutions which allow for the use of local tradesmen
  • minimal levels of maintenancegoing forwards.

• 15 one to one interviews,
• 10 focus groups and
• a survey of 20,000 people (932 responses) carried out by the consortium.

• A: Detailed Survey Methodology
• B: Survey Questionnaire
• C: Postal Survey Covering Letter with Glossary
• D: Email covering letter
• E: Survey Responses
• F: Focus Group Structure
• G – Example Focus Group Screener
• H – Virtual Retrofit Interview Script
• References

• The need for a major programme of training and skills development;
• Legislation to help bring the private rental sector into retrofit;
• Consolidation of advice, funding and policy streams;
• Focus on developing a link between asset value and energy performance
• Roles for a project manager or single-point-of-contact liaison officer would help ensure retrofit packages meet customer expectations.

• the existing methodologies available
• the choice of the Experian Mosaic-Green system.
• the ten customer segments are discussed along with their geographic distribution
• A first draft of the metrics is shown
• Further development of the segmentation model is discussed
• Appendices:
  • A: Extract of Micro DE 1.3 Report
  • B: Key datasets

• A summary of the Work Package and its deliverables;
• A final summary of the customer segmentation with segment profiles;
• A detailed summary of potential early adopter segments;
• Synthesis conclusions and recommendations;
• Evaluation of the deliverable and suggestions for future work.

• Validation of House Type and Customer Type Combinations
• Profiles of early adopters terms
  
  • Older Established
  • Stretched Pensioners
  • Transitional Retirees
  • Early Entrepeneurs

1. demographic profile
2. top house types
li>attitudes to refits
3. energy perceptions and behaviours

• A summary of the Work Package and its deliverables;
• A final summary of the customer segmentation;
• The early adopter segments;
• Synthesis conclusions and recommendations;
• Evaluation of the deliverable and suggestions for future work.

• existing methodologies
• choice of Experian Mosaic-Green
• work with Experian to refine the customer segments from their model in this specific context
• summarises the ten resulting customer segments
• presents a diagram showing their relationship to age and affluence
• describes the further work to be done

• English housing stock has been split into 36 different archetypes based on the dates of construction and the dwelling configuration.
• This is to support the analysis of retrofit interventions identified on an individual dwelling basis, and their subsequent extrapolation to the entire English housing stock.
• Data on key characteristics relevant to thermal efficiency or the costs of improvement are presented for each of the housing archetypes.

• Frequency
• Current notional CO₂ emissions
• Predominant wall type & presence of wall insulation
• Roof type
• Percentage of glazing
• Type of glazing
• Presence of bay windows
• Floor area
• Wall area
• Roof area
• Existing loft insulation thickness
• Notional CO₂ reductions following EPC recommended measures
• Presence of ‘additional part’ (an extension or extension-like area)
• Wall finish

1. Splitting the retrofit process into delivery steps and supporting activities, adding a description / specification at each step for the future state, this future state is documented in deliverables 4.3 and 4.4.
2. Add the current state for the existing supply chain
3. Identify the transformation route from current state to desired future state, the participants required to take action, prioritisation and the likely costs / timeframes. The goal is the capacity to achieve 400,000 retrofits per year by 2020. The result of this activity is the transformation plan identified in this deliverable.

• Transformational roadmap, plan and high level budget
• Stakeholder review
• Commercial drivers
• Obstacles & Risks
• Geographical Considerations
• Material and Process Change Requirements

• Householders want to limit the number of people in their home for retrofit work:
• A systems approach to design, manufacture, installation and maintenance of retrofitis likely to deliver significant benefits in cost, speed and efficiency.
• Integration of the whole spectrum of retrofit activities from survey, through design, product manufacture and installation is needed to retrofit of 26 million UK homes before 2050.
• Changes in incentives, accreditation and possibly legislation will be needed to allow required changes to working methods and systems of retrofit delivery to be successfully employed.

• Busy Starters
• Early Enterprisers
• Greener Graduates
• Middle Grounders
• Urban Constrained
• Successful Ruralites
• Unconvinced Dependents
• Transitional Retirees
• Elderly Established
• Stretched Pensioners

• Appendix 1-Survey Process Map
• Appendix 2-Extenal Wall Process Map
• Appendix 3-Internal Wall Timings (not available)
• Appendix 4 - FMEA workshop summary results
  1. Survey Process
  2. Installation Process
• Appendix 5 – Workshop presentations and attendance
  1. Attendees (not available)
  2. 9th June
  3. 12th July
  4. 7th September
  5. 8th September
  6. 13th September

• The current supply chain is split by silos around the existing trades:
  • Windows and doors
  • Loft / Roof insulation
  • Heating and plumbing
  • External insulation
  • Internal insulation
• Delivery of retrofit is centred on these trade silos resulting in duplication in the supply chain and retrofit installation businesses
• There is a piecemeal approach to retrofit design and installation again split by function resulting in a failure to achieve the performance and cost benefits of a systems engineered approach
• The skills and qualifications demanded to work legally and to satisfy warranty provisions with products used in retrofit are mostly general and not “right sized, and fit for the purpose” for a future mass retrofit market
• The existing supply chain is not configured for the retrofit market (which has yet to emerge) and there is no clear strategy for distribution and consolidation of products to effectively support and enable retrofit businesses.
• Routes to obtain funding and investment in domestic retrofit are unclear and the team has been unsuccessful in engaging with the financial community on this project. The green deal mayinclude mechanisms but is unlikely to enable the whole house retrofit systems approach.
• The survey process requires in depth study to provide a robust system to remove risk from the retrofit process. This is likely to include a large element of continuous monitoring, feedback and improvement as the industry forms and matures.
• Current trade skills are inappropriate for retrofit being broad based with limited cover for cross trade working. The retrofit installation process also requires in depth study to understand the basic competences and optimise team working to achieve the best value balance of number of people on site and time taken for retrofit.
• Trade qualifications and legislation for working with gas, water and electricity are likely to limit the speed and effectiveness of the development of retrofit unless reviewed and brought into line with the competence approach suggested here.
• New products are required to simplify retrofit activities and increase the robustness of the end result. Pre fabrication and off site material preparation are also seen as a requirement to increase speed and quality of installation results.
• Significant cost erosion is required to allow whole house retrofit to be a financially attractive investment to home owners.

• loft insulation,
• cavity wall insulation,
• tank and pipe insulation,
• high efficiency boiler installation,
• draughtproofing and
• repair of doors and windows

• Low Energy Victorian House (LEVH)
• Greener Homes for Redbridge
• Metropolitan Housing Trust
• Perry Street,Darlaston
• Birchcroft Smethwick
• 64 Beach Road, Sea Palling
• Zero Carbon House
• Eco-Energy Retrofit
• Self Heating Social Housing
• Solutions for a Holistic Optimal Retrofit (SHOR)
• BASF Meisterhäuser
• Hohenzöllernhöfe
• Brunck Quarter
• Köln
• The Luwoge Zero Heating Cost House
• L’Habitarelle
• Saint Fargeau -Maison Phénix

• Most effective intervention(s)
• Least effective intervention(s)
• New technology difficulties
• Customer acceptance
• Level of expertise
• Availability of materials
• Cost implications how does the scale affect the nature of interventions?

• Retrofit Database Review
• Overview of measures adopted by Retrofit Project

1. Three bed semi detached house
2. Mid-rise block of flats
3. High-rise tower block
4. Hard to Treat property

1. Existing condition - what might you find in a property of this type?
2. Issues and Risks - what are the challenges and unknowns?
3. Improvement Options - what can you do to make the property more thermally efficient?
4. Innovation Options - solutions that are not in the mainstream yet but have the potential to solve difficult problems at the critical building junctions.

• House Types
  • The most likely house types to target for mass retrofit should be based not only on their frequency of occurrence but also their impact on overall carbon emissions.
  • In terms of customer types, segments should be considered according to the size of the population segment, their openness to retrofit, and their awareness of environmental issues.
  • The most likely primary target markets for retrofit would be within the Early Entrepreneurs, Transitional Retirees and Older Established Segments. Stretched Pensioners are open to retrofit but may be limited by their ability to fund the retrofit.
• Whole House Solutions
  • The whole house packages that emerged as a result of this project comprise solutions that scored highly across several criteria categories - solutions that made sense from a design and construction point of view, were affordable, and were relatively easy to bring to market and upscale into mass-market implementation. Solutions that were also cost-effective in terms of cost per kg CO₂ of carbon saved were also included, but were considered in terms of how potential improvements could be applied to both product and supply chain in order to improve scalability and deployment.
  • “Do it once and do it properly” was the key to the generation of these whole house packages. Incremental piecemeal improvements do yield thermal efficiency improvements, but the installation of these improvements as a whole system would yield benefits in terms of cost effectiveness (avoidance of cost duplication), enhanced performance (better thermal detailing at junctions), risk mitigation (minimise damage/decreased performance of previously installed measures), waste minimisation and disruption.
  • Most of the solutions that we would need for mass-scale whole house retrofit currently exist in some shape or form - the key is to work on making them better, high performing, and assembling them as an integrated systems solution that ensures that each component performs as it should instead of the piecemeal approach to retrofit that is employed today.
• There are a number of factors that influence the success of a particular measure or solution - it is not simply about cost or performance. Supply chain maturity, consumer acceptance and the robustness of national and local policies all play a crucial role.
• Current costs of retrofit are high due to the piecemeal, silo-based method that the construction industry uses for costing and for delivering the work. It is apparent that there is a lot of potential for optimising the process (of the costing itself as well as the retrofit activity) in order to bring down the costs. The costing exercises show that the low-carbon options costs over twice as much as doing a ‘quick and easy’ - basic thermal improvements with minimal disruption. And incentives such as a room in roof or a new kitchen and bathroom (depending on the standard of course) could cause a quadrupling of the costs.
• The major dependency for the success of a mass retrofit programme is customer acceptance. Regardless of the preparatory work to 2020, the success of any retrofit scheme will depend on customer awareness, understanding and most importantly, trust.
• The major obstacles beyond customer demand are likely to include:
  • Available funding and cost
  • Heritage and aesthetic concerns
  • Improved trust in the building industry
  • Appropriate upskilling
• Policy initiatives should be aimed to create conditions in 2020 that support both customer interest acceptance and supply chain development.
• One element which has not been included as a significant barrier, but which can contribute to the overall success of the programme is product innovation. The essential products necessary for retrofit are already available, although some will need to become more widely available and with reduced costs.
• External wall insulation has emerged as the key thermal element for both Retrofix and Retropluspackages, and as such the effect of a mass rollout on neighbourhood streetscapes will need to be considered.

• The Construction Industry accounts for only about 5% of the employees in Britain, but still accounts for 27% of fatal injuries to employees and 9% of reported major injuries
• This has remained fairly static for the last three years
• Falls from height account for around half of all fatal accidents in the construction industry
• Biggest hindrances to improvement are
  • Inertia and complacency in industry culture
  • client demands
  • lack of, or poor, training and education

1. “To define within the context of the OTEoEH project what an acceptable level of intervention will be for the five main housing types selected for scenario testing.”
2. “To undertake a Technology development activity to identify technical opportunities that are capable of reducing identified risks of refurbishment to acceptable levels as defined above.”
3. “To include in the series of workshops, special attention to skills, culture and systems and processes issues within the construction industry.”

• Management is not going to have a major impact on health and safety in the retrofit process.
• It is primarily through this competency that risks will be managed.
• For a polycompetent team to be competent, as defined by the CDM Regulations they will need to be trained in:
  • The correct behavioural attitudes for an appropriate safety culture
  • Generic safety best practice, for example in the use of PPE, manual handling etc
  • How to identify risks
• The main significant risks for the works proposed are likely to be:
  • Access around the site to carry out the works which will affect the location of working platforms such as ladders, scaffold, cherry pickers, etc
  • Properties are likely to remain in occupation throughout the duration of the works which means that work will have to be carried whilst the occupants are carrying out their normal lives. This creates a great deal of health and safety issues
  • Possible presence of asbestos in the properties
  • Current condition of the property such the existing electrical wiring that may not be safe or meet legal standards or the structure of the property may not be stable.

1. “To define within the context of the OTEoEH project what an acceptable level of intervention will be for the five main housing types selected for scenario testing.”
2. “To undertake a Technology development activity to identify technical opportunities that are capable of reducing identified risks of refurbishment to acceptable levels as defined above.”
3. “To include in the series of workshops, special attention to skills, culture and systems and processes issues within the construction industry.”

• Laser scanning and CNC machining
• The use of drones to take photos and video of inaccessible places as part of a survey
• Offsite production of roof panels and units
• Improved access systems
• Assistance for manual handling

1. “To define within the context of the OTEoEH project what an acceptable level of intervention will be for the five main housing types selected for scenario testing.”
2. “To undertake a Technology development activity to identify technical opportunities that are capable of reducing identified risks of refurbishment to acceptable levels as defined above.”
3. “To include in the series of workshops, special attention to skills, culture and systems and processes issues within the construction industry.”

1. New concepts and ideas
   • Adaptations to ladders, scaffolding and towers to produce tailored safe efficient working platform solutions, for example for the fixing of insulation, cladding or drylining.
   • The use of attachments for cherry pickers etc. to aid handling of windows (especially triple glazed), cladding, drylining and insulation.
   • The use of laser scanning and CNC cutting to prepare materials offsite, particularly internal wall insulation
   • The prefabrication of roof units for loft conversions to minimise time on site
   • The use of drones to photograph/video as part of the survey of the property – particularly for difficult to see areas that would require a surveyor to work at height eg roofs
2. Skills and Culture
   • The poly-competent team will need to be competent contractor. They will have to have embedded a safety culture and have received training in generic good safety practices and risk identification. This will be the primary means by which risk will be managed and will include reducing risks from slips, trips, falls and handling.

• Background and link to other work packages
• Approach
• High level supply chain design
• Detailed supply chain design
• Survey process
• Installation process
• Supply chain system design
• Current sales and delivery route
• Retrofit demand
• Training and accreditation
• The value of retrofit
• Conclusions and next steps
• Appendices (available as separate documents)
  1. Estimate of Product Volumes
  2. Installation Programmes
     1. Pre 1919 Detached
     2. Pre 1919 Mid Terrace
     3. 1919-1944 Semi
     4. 1945-1965 Semi
     5. 1965-1980 Bungalow
     6. 1965-1980 Detached
     7. 1965-1980 Purpose Built Low Rise Flat
     8. 8 1980 Detached
  3. Stakeholder Interviews

We welcome the idea of offering more policy support to SMEs to enable the uptake of energy efficiency opportunities, to the benefit of their enterprises, the economy as a whole and the environment. Researchers have previously argued that there is not enough policy focus on SMEs (Banks et al, 2012, Hampton and Fawcett, 2017) and this consultation was valuable as part of a wider process of policy development.

This response covers general issues about design of policy for energy efficiency improvement in SMEs, and offers specific evidence on Option 2: a business energy efficiency obligation.

• introduces the ETI Smart Systems and Heat Programme;
• positions the Consumer Behaviour Project within the Smart Systems and Heat Programme; and
• describes the expected interactions between the Consumer Behaviour Project and the other projects of the Smart Systems and Heat Programme.

1. 30 Homes – a longitudinal (year long) study of 30 homes in Yorkshire, Manchester, Norfolk and London.
2. HEMS Field Trial – a three-month study of 12 homes in London to consider the ease of installation and participants’ adaptability to two different smart heating control systems

• Participant retention – one of the most important successes of both projects has been the positive relationships formed with the participants and their retention. This was because of
  • Open and effective communication
  • Clear agreements
  • Small teams assigned to each participant
  • Customer care and remuneration
  • Recruitment through other activities
• Logistics - implementation of effective procedures, forms and records by a dedicated project management team guaranteedsmooth running of the project.
• Health and safety best practice – robust health and safety procedures, installation guidance, well-rehearsed incident protocol, training of staff and provision of safety documentation for participants ensured that the team was always equipped to work safely and participants were never at risk
• Data protection – a detailed data protection protocol for the wider project informed the design of a robust system for maintaining anonymity of participants for any purpose other than direct contact, ensuring secure management of personal data further built trust between the participants and the project team.
• Engagement with suppliers and manufacturers – effective engagement with the manufacturers and suppliers of equipment ensured that stock levels and lead-in times were never an issue; problems that arose were quickly solved.
• Forensic analysis – integrated data analysis / interview preparation meetings (researcher, analyst, surveyor, etc.) synthesising data insights with social and technical insights.
• Data analysis – building an understanding of the conditions and behaviour within the monitored homes; and identifying whether occupants were correctly reporting their energy use behaviours. In addition data from all the homes (although the samples were small) was aggregated and cross-compared helping to provide hints of patterns across the stock.

• Ensuring a dequate lead-in time
• Defining the Research Aims
• Establishing the Monitoring Brief
• Intellectual Property (IP)
• What could not be monitored
• Remote or in-situ data downloads
• Health and Safety – a single incident could jeopardise both the future of the project and the reputation of ETI
• Participant acceptability
• Managing additional visits
• Appointments / logistics
• Data Management

• Income: Regardless of government involvement, many low carbon technologies will require consumer investment. The scenarios have not considered a fall in income, as existing literature suggests that the average income per person will continue to rise overall to 2050. However, the rate of this change is unclear, as is the relative amount of disposable income per person. The amount of disposable income will highly influence uptake.
• Fuel Prices: Energy bills are a consumer’s primary interaction with the wider energy industry, and provide a sense of their impact in a tangible way. The degree to which fuel prices increase will put increasing pressure on the consumer, having a direct impact on demand.
• Climate Change: As extreme weather events continue to become more prominent and highly publicised, the public’s need for energy security is expected to increase. The speed at which the impacts of climate change take place will influence the rate of change in energy behaviour

• Design and rationale for the pilot methodology
• Implementation plan and timetable
• Research questions, challenges and parameters
  • Consumer needs
  • Consumer behaviour
  • Explaining behaviour
  • Variation across groups
• Recommendations on what needs to be piloted

• Qualitative Workshop pilot study
  • Design & aims
  • Recruitment & engagement
  • Topic guide & stimulus materials
  • Diary format & sequencing
  • Sequencing of qualitative study
  • Implications for main-stage study design
• Residential Data Monitoring pilot study
• Clarifications, Questions and Discussion
• Conclusions
  • The pilot has proved useful to identify potential future problems and start to investigate the usefulness of the data.
  • Considerable development work is required regarding sensors, their installation and communication between the sensors and the main hub before they can be relied on to produce good quality data i.e. accurate and 98% availability.
  • In part, this was the aim of the pilot project. The challenge is to demonstrate that this can be achieved in time for the full trial and to allow good quality discussion of results with occupants

• Health and wellbeing
• Resources e.g. finances, waste
• Agency - the capacity and willingness of a person to act independently and make choices
• Relational dynamics - the social relationship between the individual or household and others, including the wider world

• YOU – decisions made on the basis of the needs of a dependent individual;
• US – decisions made on the basis of needs of multiple household members;
• ME – decisions made on the basis of the self-interest of individuals.

• What segmentation is
• Approaches to segmentation (using an existing segmentation, creating a new one, or a hybrid of the two)
• Attributes as drivers and moderators
• The provisional segmentation
• What the segments will be used for
• Limitaitons etc
• Conclusions
  • A segmentation has been proposed that meets project needs
  • The segmentation can evolve based on data from field research
  • The segmentation encompasses the majority of the current and future UK population

• Heat energy needs
• Heating the home and keeping warm
• What do people do to keep warm?
• Keeping cool
• Heating water and using hot water
• Heat energy solutions
• A technical appendix contains supporting information on sampling , questionnaire design, briefings, fieldwork, editing and coding, data weighting, and analysis and reporting.

• What is a Smart Energy Solution?
• The Baseline Perspective
  • How important is heat to consumers?
  • Are consumers willing to change their system?
  • How can solutions better appeal to consumers?
• Controls and Feedback
• Heat Delivery and Localised Heat
  • Radiators
  • Storage Heaters
  • Underfloor Heating
  • Warm/Forced Air
  • Secondary and other localised heat
  • Body heat retentionary
• Centralised Heat Generation
  • Heat Pumps
  • Communal Heating
• Hot Water
  • What Do People Want From Hot Water?
  • On-demand Hot Water
  • Stored Hot Water
  • Needs-Focussed Summary
• Cooling and Ventilation
  • The Importance of Cooling and Ventilation
  • Active Cooling
  • Natural Ventilation
  • Mechanical Ventilation
  • Portable Ventilation/Cooling
• Insulation and Building Fabric Improvements
  • Insulation Solutions
  • Glazing Solutions
  • Preserving Appearance
• Installation Process
  • Current Approaches to Home Improvements
  • Building Improvements Into Existing Plans
  • Whole-House Approach .
  • Reducing Hassle
• Advice
  • Advice on current system
  • Advice on potential upgrades
  • Building MOT
• Paying for Energy
  • Current payment models
  • 'Paying for Comfort'
  • Communal and Community Energy
• Consumer-led Solution Evaluation and Design
• Appendix A - Large Size Assessment Tables

• Financial support
• Data or IT infrastructure
• Physical infrastructure
• Supply chain
• Legislation
• Education, training and skills
• Enabling products and tools
• Other stakeholders

• Healthy Home HEMS
• Remote Zone HEMS
• Designer Retrofit
• Smarter Secondary Heating
• Complete Comfort
• Community Retrofit Pathways

• Payment - Who pays for the service (capital costs, ongoing costs, etc.) and what funding mechanisms would best suit the concept from a customer and commercial perspectives?
• Data Management and Protection - What data is essential for the delivery of the concept? Who needs to access and manipulate this data and how will this data be protected?
• Trust - How can customers be inspired to trust the concept interms of the technologies themselves, the parties responsible for delivering the concept and in the advice they receive throughout?
• Communication Channels - How will information be conveyed to the customer? From first contact through the life and usage of the system? Who will the messenger be? How will the concept be marketed?
• Cross-Tenure Appeal - How might the concept appeal to different tenures? What about to different customer types? What is the market size for the concept?

• Heat and Humans
  • The UK Heat Landscape
  • The Challenge
  • Meeting the Challenge
• What do consumers need from heat?
  • What needs drive consumer use of heat?
  • What do consumers do to heat their homes, heat water and keep warm?
  • How do needs drive behaviours?
  • How do consumer behaviours impact energy consumption?
• How do we design better solutions?
  • What are the challenges?
  • How to improve uptake/generate demand?
  • What are the potential impacts of better solutions?
  • Implications for the market
• Appendix: Detailed Needs Linkages

• People have wide-ranging needs that influence how they use heat energy in the home. But it appears that only a relatively small sub-set of these needs drive day-to-day, routine behaviours
• The needs that drive day-to-day, routine behaviours exist along a continuum of priority:some are fundamental needs, while other more peripheral and better described as ‘wants’. These peripheral needs only come into focus and become an influence on behaviour as people’s core needs are met sufficiently
• It is not only needs, however, that affect what people actually do. A dynamic and interacting set of household-level factors, encompassing people, property and systemaffect how and to what extent people are able to meet these needs, and which needs come into focus and influence behaviour
• People adopt complex control strategies to meet their needs. Some are highly sophisticated and considered, while others may be rudimentary and reflexive. They are also highly variable, given that people are working around a variable mix of people/property/system factors.
• What appears to remain constant across the population is that control strategies enable people to meet the aims (or fundamental needs) of comfort and health, while being prepared or required to make trade-offs in relation to the means (more peripheral needs, such as cost and convenience) by which they get there.
• People are extraordinarily adaptable yet highly resistant to change once they have developed a strategy that allows them to meet their basic health and comfort needs. They tend to make adaptations to their energy systems onlywhen there is a disruption to their normal flow of life that ‘pushes’ them to change.

Priorities for the Energy Cost Review

This week, the government’s long awaited Clean Growth Strategy will be published. Like many, we will be looking for details of how UK emissions will continue to be reduced to meet the 4^th and 5^th carbon budgets. In particular, the Strategy will need to explain how a range of increasingly significant policy gaps will be addressed.

The Strategy is likely to be closely followed by the conclusions of the Review of Energy Costs, led by Professor Dieter Helm. Ahead of the Strategy’s publication, we are publishing a briefing paper that covers four key issues that are central to the terms of reference of the Review of Energy Costs – and to the Clean Growth Strategy itself.

Our starting point is that the primary issue is the cost of energy bills for consumers, rather than only the unit price of energy. It is therefore important to focus on measures that can reduce the quantity of energy required for a given level of service as well as trends that could help to reduce or moderate prices. In line with the terms of reference, our briefing paper focuses on electricity costs since UK electricity prices are higher up the European league table than those for gas.

Energy efficiency

The role that energy efficiency can play in reducing electricity bills needs to be fully addressed. Significant progress in this area remains to be made; savings of up to 10% can be achieved through well designed standards and investment programmes, and a recent UKERC report highlighted that a 25% reduction in household energy demand is possible through cost effective measures. There is a clear rationale for government intervention, to drive energy efficiency and address the policy gap left behind by the failure of the Green Deal. The case is even clearer when considering the additional economic and social benefits that energy efficiency brings.

Innovation and technology cost reduction

The creation of new markets help drive technology cost reductions, as does patient government support. Offshore wind is a case in point - achieving much lower than expected prices in the recent Contracts for Difference auctions. If these projects are delivered, this will place offshore wind amongst the cheapest new sources of electricity generation in the UK.

Policy change is required to drive further innovation, yet with investor confidence low, this needs to build on existing policy instruments. A case has been made for moving low carbon technologies into a single competitive auction. However this technology neutral approach favours technologies close to market, failing those which are less developed. Complex technologies such as carbon capture and storage, which have significant potential but high capital expenditure and associated risk, could require a state-led approach to investment, allowing for competition to drive prices down.

A systems approach is required

The review’s terms of reference clearly state that a systems approach is required. The consideration of technologies within this perspective is imperative, as is developing energy policy within this context. This is particularly relevant for electricity, where a range of mechanisms and markets are used to balance supply and demand in real time.

System flexibility is key to keeping costs down. The cost of integrating renewables into the grid vary widely, with future cost of integrating intermittent power sources, depending upon the availability of cost effective system flexibility. Incentivising flexibility and reforms to the capacity market will be required to facilitate this, and as the proportion of renewables increases, government will need to decide how to account for system costs including those surrounding intermittency.

Research, development and demonstration

Innovation is an important driver for reducing costs and bringing technologies to market. However this non-linear process exists with multiple feedbacks between development, demonstration and deployment. Effectiveness is further dependent on incentives for demonstration and market creation, and UKERC research has shown that innovation in the energy sector tends to take three to four decades from early stage R&D to significant commercial deployment.

Analysis has been undertaken by government to establish this evidence base, yet too often this has focused on discrete technologies, with less attention paid to system innovation. It is this system innovation which will be key to the low carbon transition, alongside effective evaluation, to learn and disseminate lessons.

Eye catching initiatives such as the Faraday Challenge for storage are welcome, as is the UK pledge - as part of Mission Innovation - to double clean energy R&D spending between 2015-2020. Whilst a step in the right direction, when considering the scale of the challenge posed by climate change, many argue that government support for innovation at a greater scale is required.

Download the briefing note to read the full submission to Dieter Helm.

• policy interdependenciesand regulatory stability,
• harmonisation of standards and
• data protection policy.

1. Interoperability is a vital prerequisite for a successful trial and a workable, enduring smart energy system;
2. New system control techniques will be essential for performing groundbreaking functions in a dynamic, bi-directional energy environment;
3. Due regard should be paid towhat data needs to be transferred from within, and between, the various tiers of the smart energy system, and what security should be in place to ensure that critical national infrastructure and customer information is appropriately protected.

• HiPerDNO
• OpenNode
• NIST IR 7628 Smart Grid Cyber Security
• Prototype Island Smart Grid
• Autonomous Decentralised Transport Operation Control System
• Traffic Management System for Kyushu Shinkansen train
• Danish Cell Controller Pilot Project
• M/490 Smart Grid Information Security working group
• EU-Commission Smart Grid Task Force (SGTF)

• The market and press reaction to the initial rollout is crucial to future success. Early failures in performance, service or cost will be very difficult to recover from
• There is significant potential from linking low carbon retrofit with other large scale domestic changes: flood protection, smart meter rollout, water company initiatives and IT, electrical or gas infrastructure repair and upgrade.
• Although a street by street approach is considered by some to be more effective, the project team can see limited potential to engage consumers in the dominant Owner Occupier market. In addition a correctly designed process should deliver equally cost effectively for single properties
• Retrofit should enable a general improvement in the currently poor condition of UK housingstock, or at least reduce the rate of further decline
• Mass scale retrofit models can support and be encouraged by other initiatives such as Energy Company Obligations (ECO) and the Green Deal if presentation to the public is clear and objectives are seen to be aligned.

1. the consumer,
2. the solutions implemented
3. the delivery mechanism itself and
4. the potential business opportunities.

The ETI Approach was subsequently subjected to testing, evaluation and improvement via the ETI’s “Domestic Retrofit Demonstration Project”.

• Theperformanceof the ETI Approach;
• The deliveryof the ETI Approach;
• The consumeracceptabilityof the ETI Approach;
• The commercial viabilityof the ETI Approach.

• RetroFix™: Installation period - maximum two weeks; capital cost of £10,000; primary energy consumption reduction of 25% - 40%
• RetroPlus™: Installation period - maximum three weeks; capital cost of £15,000 - £20,000; primary energy consumption reduction of 40% - 60%

• Efficient and advanced survey methods are essential to identify the underlying conditions of the property.
• A library of standard installation details and technical solutions has been proven to reduce time and hence cost at the design stage.
• High performance insulation and building products used in the Retrofit Approach are still at the top end niche of the market.
• Installer productivity is a major opportunity for reduced programme periods and resource costs, however productivity must not be prioritised over quality otherwise the Retrofit Approach cost and technical performance targets will not be achieved.
• It is evident from the demonstration houses that when the retrofit measures are installed correctly there is a significant improvement to the thermal performance of the property, which in turn proves the Retrofit Approach target saving for heat energy consumption.
• The supply chain is not yet set up for delivery logistics to individual home retrofit projects.

• ETI consumer research highlights issues to address if the UK is to change how it heats the vast majority of buildings
• Today fewer than 4% have low carbon heating and 90% prefer gas central heating»Location constrains the heating solutions available to each building and existing buildings have their own constraints
• People are diverse, they want different things from their heating (for example cost, comfort, health) – the same solution will not suit everyone
• Improve low carbon heating designs so they tackle common problems and enhance home life
• Simplify installations so they are more convenient
• Enhance heating control so people can value what they spend, get what they want from low carbon systems and factor heat into renovation decisions

• Improving the thermal efficiency of significant parts of the existing UK housing stock over the next thirty years is an important part of a cost-effective UK decarbonisation strategy but cannot substitute for decarbonising the supply of energy to buildings.
• Uptake could be increased by making efficiency improvements an integral part of improving the amenity and value of the dwellings, rather than a series of independent measures.
• A focus on the interests of the owners and occupiers of the dwellings and the performance of the supply chain in delivering retrofit to them is critical to progress.
• Efficiency measures can provide cost-effective carbon savings and improve people’s comfort and living experience considerably. Although cost savings are rarely enough to justify the work at current energy prices, there is nevertheless a strong case for improving the quality of the UK housing stock, with energy being one element in this.
• There are significant opportunities to improve the performance of a traditional business-as-usual approach to housing retrofits. The culture, structure and practices of large parts of the supply chain will need non-trivial changes and investment to deliver this.
• A coherent long-term strategy that recognises the underlying economics will enable more entrepreneurial businesses to invest in the changes required to deliver more cost-effective, high performing retrofits. This will enable progress towards energy, poverty, health and housing goals.

• Low carbon heating must appeal to consumers if the UK is to tackle climate change.
• Consumers might welcome solutions if they enhanced their experiences using heat at home.
• Consumers will need help to get high quality experiences from low carbon heating solution.
• Policies could harness the emerging ‘smart home’ to garner public support for decarbonising heat.
• Decarbonisation could help the vulnerable access basic energy services, but there are also risks.

• The near total elimination of carbon emissions from existing homes is required by 2050
• There are two key solutions for low carbon home heating – local area schemes using heat networks and individual home systems using electric heat, each with different challenges
• Compelling consumer propositions and business models are needed. Social benefits will also be important and affordability needs to be a key element of transition planning
• A system level frameworkis required to package known but underdeveloped technologies into integrated solutions
• System designs and local spatial plans are needed for the efficient development of energy assets and to support end-user engagement
• Integrating the delivery of an energy system transition strategy into local planning processes, with local ownership, will be key to the delivery of near zero emissions
• Low carbon heating systems will introduce the need for new heat production and network assets, along with significant electricity network reinforcement, whilst the utilisation of local gas distribution networks will be reduced
•  The next decade will be critical in preparing for the transition and building confidence. A policy framework is required that supports the combination of individual and collective decisions and investments. Rapid implementation is then required from 2025

• Enable clear decision-making and incentivise investment to create efficiently configured heat networks;
• Encourage (or even mandate) adoption amongst customers;
• Ensure technology and process advances are compatible with the qualities of heat networks (notably the ability to deliver large quantities of heat, long-asset life and fuel source flexibility) that contribute to making them a compelling proposition.
• Deliver effective management of the changeover of heat supply networks and systems; and
• Ensure that network infrastructures are designed and work together efficiently across vectors in real time

This document sets out a response of the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) to the Department of Energy and Climate Changes (DECC) consultation Electricity Demand Reduction.

In our response to the consultation on electricity market reform (EMR) we noted the potential importance of demand reduction and demand side response in achieving the Governments goals for the electricity sector of security, emissions reduction and reasonable cost.

All our responses are based on evidence from research by UK academic researchers independent of commercial or other vested interest. One particular focus of the response is on the option of premium payments (otherwise known as energy saving feed-in tariffs). UKERC supported research (Eyre, 2013) is the first peer reviewed academic literature on this topic in the world. We believe that an approach along these linesis consistent with addressing a market bias against energy saving that would otherwise be introduced by EMR proposals in their current form. We begin the response with four key concerns about the evidence base used in the consultation document and its supporting literature. We then respond to some specific questions identified in the consultation document itself.

• Community scale biomass / biogas CHP
• LV Voltage control technologies
• Energy Management Services and advanced network controls systems.

• hybrid ASHP,
• High Density Thermal Storage (HDTS) and
• HEMS / HAN as high priority technologies.

• Hybridised ASHP with gas boilers for individual dwellings, optimised for the British conditions;
• High-density thermal storage for individual dwellings;
• Home Energy Management Systems (HEMS) and sensors for residential applications;
• Building Energy Management Systems (BEMS) and sensorsfor non-domestic applications.

• The current state of development of the technology
• The key areas of technical development required
• Non-technical market constraints for each technology assessed at a high-leve
• The timescales and key milestones in these development pathways
• The level of investment required to achieve the technical developments identified
• The opportunities for the ETI to accelerate technology development and commercialisation
• Impact of technology development on performance and costs
• Role of the technologies under different electrification scenarios

This report is one of a series of working papers in the UKERC Energy 2050 project series. It investigated the role of pro-environmental lifestyle change for the UK energy system to 2050. We make two assumptions, both of which seem obvious when stated, but are frequently forgotten or ignored in energy futures work. The first is that the behaviour of energy users is not fixed, but rather the outcome of developments in society, and that these are uncertain with the level of uncertainty increasing over time. The second is that any policy framework that seeks to deliver major changes in the energy system, such as an 80% reduction in CO2 emissions, will be the outcome of a political process in which civil society, i.e. energy users in other roles, will play a key role.

We have used an innovative methodology to combine the strengths of detailed end use models (UK Domestic Carbon Model and UK Transport Carbon Model, both developed at the ECI) and a cost-optimisation model of the whole UK energy system (MARKAL Elastic Demand, developed at UCL).

Research for the UK Energy Research Centre’s Technology and Policy Assessment (TPA) function shows the importance of increased policy support for energy efficiency programmes, after a strategic review found savings in the region of 10% for well designed and implemented programmes. While multiple policies and programmes have been implemented in the past to encourage improvements in household efficiency, both in the UK and globally, the robustness and accuracy of programme evaluations have been called into question.

The authors carried out a systematic review of the evidence base of peer-reviewed evaluation programmes, drawn from conference papers and 20 different journals, in order to find out what works and where the gaps are, and to inform future programme design.

This working paper pulls together and summarises the key information available about energy use and carbon emissions within the UK higher education (HE) sector. In addition it undertakes new analysis based on existing data (some of it unpublished) to provide a better understanding of the sector’s carbon emissions.

• a description of the policy imperative which supports local area energy planning;
• an assessment of how this fits inwith energy planning already being undertaken by various local authorities and energy network operators across the UK;
• an explanation of the steps to be taken in adopting a whole system approach to local area energy planning outlining how local areas can follow an approach which reflects local circumstances to achieve decarbonisation goals, clean growth and other local drivers such as energy security and affordability, reflecting government advice.

The aim of the workshop was to bring together academics and practitioners from different disciplines and backgrounds in order to ultimately inform more effective approaches to public communication of, and engagement with, climate change and energy reduction. The overarching question to be addressed by the workshop was, What can empirical and theoretical studies of communication and behaviour change tell us about how we might move towards a more climate-friendly (low-carbon, climate resilient) society?. More specifically the workshop objectives were to: share cutting-edge research and practice; foster learning across disciplines and contexts; identify gaps in understanding; form new interdisciplinary contacts and networks; consider and generate new insights; stimulate novel collaborations; provide the contents for a book and a workshop report that would beuseful for academics, practit

The aim of the workshop was to bring together academics and practitioners from different disciplines and backgrounds in order to ultimately inform more effective approaches to public communication of, and engagement with, climate change and energy reduction. The overarching question to be addressed by the workshop was, “What can empirical and theoretical studies of communication and behaviour change tell us about how we might move towards a more ‘climate-friendly’ (low-carbon, climate resilient) society?”. More specifically the workshop objectives were to: share cutting-edge research and practice; foster learning across disciplines and contexts; identify gaps in understanding; form new interdisciplinary contacts and networks; consider and generate new insights; stimulate novel collaborations; provide the contents for a book and a workshop report that would be useful for academics, practitioners and policy-makers. Central to the workshop were three sessions relating to the overarching question: models, messages and media. These sessions involved 10 minute presentations from each of three presenters and a 10 minute response from an invited discussant.

• What is the ETI?
• Our energy system evolves around our choices
• Change happens fast
• Why do we need to balance?
• The tools at our disposal
• How much storage is needed?
• Vector Flexibility
• Demand Flexibility

• Create new energy systems, adapt existing ones and integrate them together
• Users define the energy system’s evolution, not the other way around
• Understand the implications of different scenarios so that we are prepared to evolve

Commencing in 2016, the Financing Community Energy project provides a comprehensive quantitative and qualitative analysis of the role of finance in the evolution of the UK community energy sector. This report presents the final of our four case studies of UK community energy organisations, exploring how these organisations have sought to finance their projects against a backdrop of diminishing government support for grassroots sustainable development.

Established in 2013, Brighton and Hove Energy Services (BHESCo) primary focus was to develop both renewable energy and energy efficiency projects, whilst also ensuring people have equal access to energy. BHESCo is rather unlike our other community energy case studies in that it operates very much like an Energy Services Company (ESCo), where they accept some degree of responsibility to provide the energy service that its customers ultimately desire (e.g. lighting, ambient temperature), rather than the straightforward supply of heat or electricity.

This report presents a case study of Edinburgh Community Solar Cooperative, exploring how it financed the project against a backdrop of diminishing government support for grassroots sustainable development.

This report presents the first of four case studies of UK community energy organisations, exploring how these organisations have sought to finance their projects against a backdrop of diminishing government support for grassroots sustainable development.

Edinburgh Community Solar Cooperative (ECSC) is a Community Benefit Society (BenCom). Its objectives are a combination of environmental and social, with an explicit focus on reducing emissions, alleviating fuel poverty, improving energy security and promoting sustainable development education.

ECSC quickly settled on renewable power generation as a means of delivering this combination of environmental andsocial value. Today it operates 1.4 MW of solar PV panels on the roofs of 24 council-owned properties in Edinburgh, including schools, leisure centres and community halls.

Commencing in 2016, the Financing Community Energy project provides a comprehensive quantitative and qualitative analysis of the role of finance in the evolution of the UK community energy sector. This report presents the second of four case studies of UK community energy organisations, exploring how these organisations have sought to finance their projects against a backdrop of diminishing government support for grassroots sustainable development.

Green Energy Mull (GEM) is a Community Benefit Company (BenCom) that owns and operates Garmony Hydro; a 400 kW run-of-the-river hydro scheme on the island of Mull, off the west coast of Scotland.

• Home Service Company
• Home Comfort Contract
• Home Moderniser
• Neighbourhood Heat and Electricity
• Urban Renewal

At present, Governments commitment stands in sharp contrast with its inaction on heat decarbonisation to date. Under pressure to progress this agenda, Government has charged the Clean Heat Directorate with the task of outlining the process for determining the UK’s long-term heat policy framework, to be published in the Roadmap for policy on heat decarbonisation in the summer of 2020 (BEIS, 2017). This report, resulting from one of six EPSRC-funded secondments, is designed to support early thinking on the roadmap by answering the research question: How can Transitions research informs the roadmap for governing the UKs heating transition?

Delivered as part of the Energy-PIECES project, this report was developed during a secondment with BEIS.

1. The civil engineering work to excavate and reinstate trenches (37%).
2. The transmission and distribution pipes and their installation (17%).
3. The supply and installation into the buildings of the heat interface units (HIUs) and associated pipework, which enable the connection of the DH network to the building’s heating system (23%).

• The particular challenge to be addressed
• The proposed solution−
• Development and commercialisation requirements
• A plan of work.

• Part A presents the system and stakeholder requirements which is the output from Work Package 1.
• Part B presents the technology review which is an output from Work Package 2.
• Part C presents the methodology used in creating a network cost model and the analysis of network costs which is an output from Work Package 2.
• Part D presents the system review and target setting which is the output from Work Package 3.

• Challenge 1 -System Design Architecture
• Challenge 2 -Civil Engineering CAPEX
• Challenge 3 -Pipes and Connections CAPEX
• Challenge 4 -Internal Connections CAPEX
• Challenge 5 -New Network Income

• The approach to solution development
• Solutions identified which address the challenges above
• The evaluation of solutions against the key criterion of DHN cost saving and the supporting qualitative and quantitative criteria
• The interaction of alternative solutions and how they can be applied to maximise the system level CAPEX saving
• The solutions selected for route mapping in Stage 3 and the selection rationale

• A - Knowledge Management, Research and Training
• B - Low Flow Rate Design
• C - Radical Routes
• D - Trenchless Solutions
• E - Improved Front End Design and Planning
• F - Shared Civils
• G - Direct Hydraulic Interface Unit (HIU) System and Existing Domestic Hot Water Storage
• H - HIU Optimisation

• What do we use energy for...?
• An emissions reduction plan
• Priorities to 2030
• Heat - now and in the future
• Which system to pick...?
• Requires local area energy planning... Enabled by EnergyPathNetworks toolset
• SSH Programme Structure
• Where next in low carbon heating...

• WP1: Development of Field Trial Approach
• WP2: Execution of Field Trial
• WP3: De-Commissioning and Closure of the Field Trial

• Current HEMS market in the UK is dominated by relatively simple products with slim margins
• The real long term aim is to establish and own the customer relationship in the home; simple HEMS products are the gateway device to a connected-home
• The connected-home market is most likely to be led by ambitious and well-funded technology players
• Telcos are also well-placed to move into the space with bundled offerings but no sign as yet
• Of the Big 6, currently only British Gas is demonstrating the ambition to drive development of the HEMS market
• Advanced ESCo offers are likely to take longer to, or may never, develop in the market
• Smart home development likely to develop later as an evolution from earlier automation
• The big prize for ETI is in developing the Advanced ESCo proposition where there are 3 primary opportunities identified
  • Right-sizing of heating solutions
  • Optimisation of time of use and demand response benefits via local storage
  • Arbitrage-driven operation of hybrid heat pumps
• Preparing for a non-energy led scenario may also be sensible to consider, especially in the shorter term

• ESCOs ‘right-size’ heating solutions then provide supply contracts with price guarantees
• HEMS enable optimised ToU tariffs and DR benefits via localstorage
• Hybrid heat pump driving arbitrage opportunities in the home

Local Authorities role in the energy transition and working with their citizens in doing so, has been recognised as crucial to paving transition paths. Material collated within this report is intended to better inform Energy Cities and its partners, Local Authorities and Municipalities, civil society groups and others interested in how citizens can be supported and encouraged to participate in energy system developments as a part of the energy transition. The findings in this report are therefore intended to directly help Local Authorities across Europe in implementing more participative approaches to their governance practices in energy systems.

Delivered as part of the Energy-PIECES project, this report was developed during a secondment with Energy Cities.

1. Construction of a set of socio-technical scenarios of air conditioning uptake,
2. Dynamic building simulation to estimate half hourly power consumption of air conditioning in archetypal single buildings,
3. Addition of air conditioning demand to existing prediction of 2050 national grid demand (National Grid Two Degrees 2050 scenario).

Energy Performance Certificates (EPCs) have been a requirement on sale of all domestic property since December 2007 as part of the introduction of Home Information Packs (HIPs). This report examines how this requirement has been implemented by those on the receiving end of the legislation – the software designers, the domestic energy assessors, the estate agents, the conveyancing solicitors and the householder. Bearing in mind the stated objectives of the EPC, the report then makes a number of recommendations for improving the operation of the scheme.

The workshop aimed to explore how the flexible mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol could better capture the large energy efficiency potential in the CEE region. While implementation of the mechanisms in the region is desired, in practice it is likely to be a challenging task. The workshop has made it possible for two interested groups to meet and learn from each other: one group being participants from the CEE region seeking knowledge transfer and capacity building, and the other group being carbon trading specialists.

This briefing paper summarises the key policy implications from the last of three working papers published by the Heat Incumbency Transitions Team. This research has investigated the role and behaviour of heat market incumbents in relation to the decarbonisation of heat.

Key messages

• The required transformation of the UKs heat system will have major implications for people and organisations involved with the sector.
• We define incumbents as people or organisations currently active in the UKs heat sector. Incumbents have the economic, social or technological capacity to influence the future of the heat system.
• Incumbents in the UK heat market are diverse and the impacts of heat decarbonisation will vary between sectors. A risk and opportunity analysis of the UK heat sector has highlighted that different heat decarbonisations pathways (electrification vs. gas decarbonisation) pose different risks for different sectors.
• Gas network owners and appliance manufacturers are the most active in their engagement with heat decarbonisation. This activity includes attempts to exert political power over policy and regulation as well as innovation activities. The upstream and supply sectors engage less with heat decarbonisation.
• The lobbying and innovation activities constitute attempts to maintain a gas based system for heat in which the gas network is decarbonised, primarily using hydrogen. This approach is unproven and risky but the idea has rapidly gained traction in the policy debate.
• Heat incumbents have also actively resisted change. These efforts include talking down other technologies and framing them as unworkable and developing coalitions of similar interests.
• Because of the ability of incumbents to lobby and innovate, new entrants in the UKs heat sector who may possess the best ideas and technologies may struggle to compete with incumbents.
• Based on our research, we have developed a number of policy recommendations for UK heat policy with implications for regulators and policy makers working on heat decarbonisation, as well as those involved in policy design process

The project investigated issues surrounding the decarbonisation of heating, which is increasingly seen as a priority by energy policy makers. It considers the move towards low carbon heating from the perspective of incumbency, a topic which has received only limited focus.

Prior research has suggested that incumbent businesses can have both positive and negative influences on decarbonisation. There are examples of large companies investing in low carbon energy and driving change but there are also examples of incumbents trying to resist change therefore slowing or blocking decarbonisation.

This paper focuses on what the policy implications of incumbency in the UK heat sector are for the decarbonisation of UK heat. The paper reports on a large number of interviews with experts working across the UK heat sector. This evidence is further built on using grey sources of literature and data.

Despite disabled people and low-income families with children being defined in policy as vulnerable to fuel poverty, there is very little evidence about how the needs of these groups are recognised or incorporated into policy decisions. There is alsono clear evidence on how energy efficiency policies actually affect these groups, and whether policy outcomes are consistent across the UK.

This policy briefingauthored by University of Yorks Department of Social Policy and Social Work (SPSW) and ACE Research, explores some of the key gaps in knowledge regarding justice in energy efficiency policy in the UK. The focus was on the impact of energy efficiency policies on disabled people, those with long-term illnesses and low-income households with children.

Key findings

The delivery of energy efciency policy is variable and patchy, with vulnerable groups ingreatest need not always eligible for support, or receiving support which fails to reflect their additional needs. To improve access for vulnerable groups and to meet their needs more effectively, the authors recommenda greater recognition of the needs of vulnerable groups, more consistent approaches across the UK and better cooperation with non-energy sectors.

The researchidentifies five key barriers to accessing vital fuel poverty support mechanisms and suggests ways in which access and outcomes can be improved for all.

• Current energy efciency programme design leads to an emphasis on meeting targets at the lowest cost -the numbers game. There needs to be a greater emphasis on the positive impact of intervention on the household rather than a focus on least cost.
• Households in need are not always eligible and the mechanisms for nding households needs to improve. Greateraccess to high quality data, data matching and data sharing wouldenable households to be targeted more effectively.
• Vulnerable customers are often unaware they are eligible for support and mechanisms for nding these people need to improve. Workis requiredto improve the trustworthiness of some of the schemes promoted.
• Current programmes focus on technical improvements to buildings rather than the needs of vulnerable groups. Thereneeds to be shift towards developing abetter understanding of the needs of these people and how they engage with energy.
• The delivery of existing energy efficiency support programmes across the UK is patchy.Government should aim for consistent outcomes for households wherever they live.

• Establish the role which novel technologies may take and the importance of novel technologies for DE nationally.
• Identify the key novel technologies for future technology development and commercialisation which may have a large impact on the macro DE potential.
• Understand the high level impacts of the novel technologies on existing and new supply chains, in particular in relation to availability of biomass and waste.

• DE is an established technology in the UK and throughout Europe.
• The value chain for DE is currently too long, too complicated and with a risk reward ratio that is not compelling for potential investors.
• There is potential to save money and reduce carbon emissions in the near term while constructing infrastructure for future development out beyond 2020.
• DE is inherently flexible as it can both accommodate local level energy targets and compliment the grid in times of peak demand.
• For DE to play a material role in the UK, strong partnerships will be required amongst public and private organisations including relevantfunding institutions. It will also be essential to build a desire to deliver superior value and benefit to the customer and the local community.
• Macro-scale DE requires community (rather than individual’s) action to maximise market penetration at an early stage. This requires a high degree of political commitment and potentially legislative action. Therefore it is not just a matter of technology and cost.

• Deliver CO₂ emissions cuts of 18% of 2008 levels by 2020.
• Help produce around 40% of our electricity through low carbon resources.

1. To develop an approach for creating around 20 UK “Characteristic Zones” to calculate aggregated zonal demand.
2. Develop an approach for assessing large UK waste heat emitters

1. Evaluation of the potential benefits of system aggregation and optimisation techniques
2. Characterisation of energy demand and supply profiles for typical UK site types (typically 100 kWe – 10 MWe)
3. Development of software methodology which analyses and integrates combinations of sites to enable optimised DE solutions
4. Benefits case for the development of such an approach
5. Identification of the deployment and CO₂ reduction opportunity for macro DE systems

1. There is a very large potential for macro DE using gas fired CHP in the 2010s and 2020s.
2. Despite the technical and economic potential, many barriers exist which future policy aimed at supporting macro DE can help overcome.
3. Macro DE may be a significant contributor to GB electricity supply with wide spread deployment.
4. DHN costs dominate the capital expenditure and access to low cost finance can help reduce this impact.
5. The CO₂ savings from gas CHP will reduce in the 2030s, but alternative forms of generation can make use of the flexibility offered by DHNs.

• the use of district heating (DH) supplied by a range of low carbon heat sources
• the use of individual heat pumps supplied by a largely decarbonised electricity grid

• The process for achieving the project’s key objectives
• Detailed performance criteria for the assessment of DE zone approach and UK benefits, at a minimum CO₂ reduction, security of energy supply and cost of delivery
• Baseline assessment assumptions, including the target end users

This workshop brought together 36 experts including policy makers and advisors, scientists and residential electricity management stakeholders to provide a neutral forum, under Chatham House rules, for full and frank dialogue relating to sharing lessons learned and developing strategies and policy recommendations emerging from managing residential electricity demand in the UK and Ontario, Canada. This was an opportunity to reflect upon our various roles within the broader context of residential electricity demand management. The aim of the workshop was to draw out recommendations and actions for demand reduction, load management and carbon reduction. The workshop outputs will provide a base for continued collaboration and identification of new research initiatives.

The workshop explored three objectives: 1. Share lessons learned from the UK and Ontario, Canada regarding demand response and demand reduction initiatives

2. Examine possible strategies; and

3. Develop policy recommendations and actions for demand reduction, load management and carbon reduction.

This document sets out some of the theoretical concepts underlying the project Mapping rebound effects from sustainable behaviours and reviews some of the previous studies in this area. The aim is to provide a starting point for the empirical research.