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Energy EfficiencyAuthor(s): Lowe, R. and Oreszczyn, T.
Published: 2020
Publisher: CREDS
The problem of decarbonising heating in buildings has been studied for more than 20 years,1 but there is still no settled consensus on strategy or choice of technology. There is consensus that the problem requires analysis of the whole energy system. While there is currently much interest in the conversion of the gas grid to hydrogen as a route to heat decarbonisation, recent literature based on whole system analysis appears to indicate that heat pumps are likely to offer the cheapest decarbonisation option overall. Each new installation would achieve an immediate factor-of-three reduction in emissions, with the promise of close-to-zero emissions by 2030, as a consequence of a process that now appears unstoppable - the decarbonisation of electricity generation. Although many dwellings would also benefit from additional insulation to increase health and comfort, the overall role of insulation in reducing emissions due to heating in the UK is likely to be secondary. High levels of insulation are not essential to the deployment of heat pumps and are only likely to be cost effective in easy-to-treat properties. But technology choice is not an either-or question. Combinations of technology, such as hybrid heat pumps, and deployment of large heat pumps in district heating systems, offer obvious advantages. And even though the role of hydrogen as a vector for supplying heat to individual homes appears limited on overall cost grounds, hydrogen or hydrogen-derived fuels are likely to play a strategic role in providing backup for the electricity grid at multiple levels, in particular, for the very long-term energy storage that will be needed from about 2040. Sifting through the multiple combinations and configurations of technologies that are, and will become available over the coming 30 years will be an on-going activity. In this context, a key recent development is an understanding that technology selection has to involve an appreciation of the overall architecture of the energy system.
Author(s): Oreszczyn, T., Lowe, R., Eyre, N., Ruyssevelt, P. and Huebner, G.
Published: 2020
Publisher: CREDS
Author(s): Crawley, C., Johnson, C., Calver, P. and Fell, M.J.
Published: 2021
Publisher: CREDS
According to the Climate Change Committee we could be using almost twice as much electricity in 2050 as today, and most of this will be from renewable sources. These changes are partly due to increased demand as transport and much of heating become powered by electricity and partly due to needing to move away from fossil fuel based generation. Matching demand with renewable supply from variable sources like wind power will likely mean that electricity demand will have to be moved around in time and decreased during periods when the system cannot provide it. This is known as demand response. It is almost certain that households will have a role to play in demand response, and various trials and commercial schemes have been implemented in recent years to ascertain how successful it could be. As all of this gets underway, we ask: what is the best way to implement domestic demand response on a large scale and how can less well-off households be factored in fairly?
Author(s): Bennett, G., Hamilton, I., Liddiard, R., Lowe, R., Mallaburn, P., Oreszczyn, T., Ruyssevelt, P. and Wingfield, J.
Published: 2018
Publisher: CREDS
EPCs will grow in importance as the policy environment moves to a more performance-based approach, as is happening with MEES and the aspiration to move the housing stock to EPC Grade C. Linking EPC performance to the provision of finance, debt and subsidy will put EPCs in the spotlight and increase the legal exposure of the process generating them. However there is clear and compelling evidence of significant and widespread issues around the reliability, accuracy and precision of EPCs. We have seen major discrepancies operating on a number of levels in the EPC data: between different assessors, between different classes of property, between assessments on the same property, between different EPC assessment regimes. There is also clear real-world evidence that EPCs may not reflect the actual performance of the building even when occupant behaviour is discounted. This is most clear in non-domestic buildings where average in-use performance bears little relation to EPC rating. This observation is less marked in household ratings, but it is still a major concern. Making the EPC process more transparent will go a long way to addressing these problems by allowing energy users and researchers to question discrepancies and help improve the process. Cloning is a case in point: this is a perfectly sensible approach for similar properties but the process needs to be opened up to scrutiny. Gaming of the system is another area that needs to be addressed.
Author(s): Cass, N., Anable, J., Lucas, K., Adeel, M., Buchs, M., Lovelace, R., Morgan, M. and Mullen, C.
Published: 2022
Publisher: CREDS
This submission is based on our project on High Energy Consumers funded by the Centre for Research on Energy Demand Solutions1. The project investigated the potential for reduction of high-end domestic and travel-related (henceforth ''household') energy consumption to contribute to decarbonisation. Summary: We confirm known drivers of high household energy consuming behaviour as home heating, car use and frequent flying. We identify that these and other energy consuming behaviours are normalised in high consuming households and are driven by social norms and expectations rather than behaviourist understandings of discrete, rational choices primarily based on information and attitudes. We provide evidence that deliberation reveals that even high consumers believe that strong government action is required to limit some choices and make others more viable, to achieve behaviour change that has not manifested voluntarily. We therefore advise that government investment in low carbon alternatives and restriction of high consumption infrastructures and devices is necessary to achieve behaviour change in line with Net Zero targets.
Author(s): Eyre, N.
Published: 2024
Publisher: CREDS
This is the written evidence from the Centre for Research into Energy Demand Solutions (CREDS) to the Committee's inquiry into 'Heating our Homes'. CREDS was established in 2018 as UK Research and Innovation's hub investment in energy demand research. Over the last 5 years, we have established a large evidence base, now structured it to provide easy access to non-academic stakeholders. In this document we address the questions raised by the Committee to which our research is relevant. Inevitably this involves some loss of detail and nuance on complex issues. We would be happy to supplement this with oral evidence.
Author(s): Lane, M.
Published: 2021
Publisher: CREDS
The Secretary of State for Housing, Communities and Local Government has announced sweeping reforms to the planning system in England. Re-energised by the need to 'build back better' following COVID-19, the well-established myth that it is planning permission that is primarily responsible for stagnating the delivery of new housing in the UK, has re-emerged. Seemingly immune to evidence of over a million plots of land currently standing empty despite being granted planning approval, the narrative here is that government bureaucracy (rather than chronic market failure) is the problem. Not only at risk of undermining democracy by circumventing important checks and balances, this myth is more than ideological fiction; it is in direct opposition to reality. In light of recent research carried out by academics at the University of Edinburgh, here we discuss the implications of this for our strive to deliver better quality, more sustainable and energy-efficient homes.
Author(s): Mallaburn, P.
Published: 2022
Publisher: CREDS
Domestic retrofit is a particularly complex climate policy challenge, with many interconnected barriers: behavioural and technical, cost and affordability and supply side capacity and skills. There is no shortage of advice on how to tackle the problem, with recent reports from E3G and the Construction Leadership Council being the most comprehensive. The government's Energy Security and Heat and Buildings Strategies set out the range of policy options that the government is considering.
Author(s): Eyre, N and Fawcett, T.
Published: 2020
Publisher: CREDS
Energy demand reduction has been a key part of the UK's progress to date in climate mitigation. All future scenarios compliant with the UK's international commitments and national legislation indicate that energy demand reduction will continue to be a critical component. Despite its acknowledged importance, there are contested approaches to energy demand reduction policy. In particular, there is interest in behavioural economics (Thaler and Sunstein, 2008), that emphasises 'nudge interventions' (Halpern, 2015). Based on a broader range of research on energy use, this paper critiques that approach with respect to effectiveness in the context of major energy transitions. We argue for a more pluralist approach, using a range of disciplinary insights and pointing towards a wider and more ambitious set of policy instruments.
Author(s): Jenkinson, K., Eyre, N and Barrett, J.
Published: 2021
Publisher: CREDS
Reducing the UK's overall energy demand provides a necessary and major contribution to net-zero emissions by 2050 as part of a comprehensive climate plan, with many associated benefits that would improve quality of life for all. Cutting energy use could:deliver around half of UK emissions' reduction by 2050;enhance quality of life, with significant co-benefits that align with other policy objectives (health, biodiversity, affordable warmth);reduce the risks and costs associated with relying on untested, undeveloped technical solutions in energy supply and engineered carbon dioxide removal (CDR, sometimes called geo-engineering).A low energy demand strategy could be at the heart of a fair, affordable and healthy route to net-zero. New research from CREDS (Centre for Research into Energy Demand Solutions) suggests that it will be difficult and expensive to meet the UK's net-zero target without measures to reduce demand for energy
Author(s): Chiu, L.F. and Lowe, R.
Published: 2020
Publisher: CREDS
The core aim of the CREDS Heat Theme has been to explore strategies for decarbonisation of heat in the UK, within an overarching Energy System Architecture Framework. Our initial findings suggest that existing energy system models are inadequate to handle multiple policy goals and that this undermines their usefulness for exploring strategies for energy system decarbonisation. The heavy emphasis placed by the energy research community on achieving net-zero sits uncomfortably with the multiplicity and emergent nature of other system objectives. This makes envisioning possible future energy system options and negotiating a feasible pathway towards a successful energy transition difficult. Our finding that different Energy System stakeholders hold divergent opinions on available technologies and strategies for decarbonisation reflects this. Our most recent piece of work, System Shocks, Response, and Recovery (HCC_C-19) sought to engage with disadvantaged communities, professionals and expert system stakeholders to explore the aftermath and implications of the COVID Pandemic, the Energy Price Shock and the impending economic crisis. In this document we set out policy recommendations based on engagement with more than 200 participants, in a variety of settings, in this programme.
Author(s): Marsden, G., Anable, J., Docherty, I., Brown, L.
Published: 2021
Publisher: CREDS
Covid-19 has forced countries around the world to make massive adaptations to the normal way of life to reduce the risk of the spread of the virus. This briefing sets out new insights into how people's travel patterns have adapted over time and why. It draws on national data sources and a major panel survey of over 6000 people conducted in July and December 2020. It calls for a major realignment of investment and policy to ensure that we do not return to the overcrowded, congested, polluting and unhealthy transport system that people had come to accept as inevitable.
Author(s): Norman, J., Barrett, J., Betts-Davies, S., Carr-Whitworth, R., Garvey, A., Giesekam, J., James, K. and Styles, R.
Published: 2021
Publisher: CREDS
Energy is required to transform raw materials into products. The majority of this energy is provided by fossil fuels and therefore contributes to climate change. Energy demand continues to rise globally, which means that additional renewable energy is used to meet this increase in demand. At this global level renewable energy supply increased by 81 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) in 2017 (IEA, 2019). However, in the same period, energy demand grew by 328 Mtoe (2.3% more than the previous year) (IEA, 2019). The demand for materials and products forms an important part of this increase and, according to the International Energy Agency, global industrial energy demand is forecast to continue increasing (IEA, 2020). At the domestic level it initially appears that the UK is moving in the opposite direction to the global trend with significant declines in industrial energy in the recent past; industrial energy demand has halved over the past 40 years (BEIS, 2020). However, as the UK has shifted to become an increasingly service based economy, the materials required to satisfy UK consumption have not declined; they are increasingly imported from elsewhere (University of Leeds and Defra, 2020). This partially explains why the energy demand of UK industry has halved in the past 40 years while industrial energy demand has not. The reality is that the industrial energy demand needed to satisfy UK consumption has remained relatively unchanged for the past 40 years (Barrett et al, 2018).
Author(s): Wade, F., Webb, J., Killip, G. and Jenkinson, K.
Published: 2021
Publisher: CREDS
We are pleased that the draft strategy aims to be comprehensive, and brings together strands of work from across the Scottish Government, setting out the many policy areas that will need to work together to deliver net-zero. CREDS strongly supports the continued focus on energy efficiency at the heart of policy to achieve net-zero. Energy efficiency will be needed to minimise demand on the energy supply and distribution system, and brings multiple benefits to low-income households, such as lower energy bills and improved comfort levels. We welcome the Strategy's acknowledgement that there is no single solution to the provision of net-zero heat in buildings, and that there will need to be a combination of policy levers and programmes to ensure a just transition.
Author(s): Eyre, N and Killip, G. (eds)
Published: 2019
Publisher: CREDS
Shifting the focus: energy demand in a net-zero carbon UK is CREDS' first major publication. It builds on research undertaken by members of the CREDS consortium over many years to address the question "What can changes in energy demand contribute to the transition to a secure and affordable UK energy system that is compatible with net-zero carbon emissions?". It examines the most recent comprehensive statement of UK Government Energy policy - the Clean Growth Strategy. Drawing on expertise in the CREDS consortium across the buildings, transport, industry and electricity sectors, the report sets out a vision for the role of energy demand changes and develops detailed recommendations for action.
Author(s): CREDS
Published: 2019
Publisher: CREDS
The Centre for Research into Energy Demand Solutions (CREDS) works with researchers, businesses and policymakers to support the transition to a low-carbon energy system. This summary provides a quick look at our first major report, which takes the Government's most recent statement on energy transition, the Clean Growth Strategy (CGS), as a starting point and draws on current knowledge from the UK energy demand research community. Building on the comprehensive, quantitative analysis by the Committee on Climate Change (CCC), we agree that major improvements in energy productivity in businesses, transport and homes are crucial to achieving the CGS goal of accelerating the pace of clean growth: this requires attention to the technical, social and institutional factors that drive energy demand. A much stronger focus on energy demand solutions is needed to address the greater action implied by a net-zero carbon target, and we set out recommendations on the policy changes required to deliver the energy-use related goals of the CGS.
Author(s): Eyre, N., Oreszczyn, T., Anable, J., Barrett, J. and Torriti, J.
Published: 2018
Publisher: CREDS
Author(s): Barrett, J., Pye, S., Betts-Davies, S., Eyre, N., Broad, O., Price, J., Norman, J., Anable, J., Bennett, G., Brand, C., Carr-Whitworth, R., Marsden, G., Oreszczyn, T., Giesekam, J., Garvey, A., Ruyssevelt, P. and Scott, K.
Published: 2021
Publisher: CREDS
Without energy demand reduction we will not achieve the UK's Sixth Carbon Budget target in 2035 of 78% below 1990 levels, or our 2050 net-zero target. The UK Government has yet to define how energy demand will contribute to achieving our climate ambitions. Given the evidence presented in this report, it is imperative that the UK Government outline a detailed strategy and supporting policies to enable energy demand reduction to fulfil its necessary role in achieving rapid emissions reductions in the UK. The limited government focus on energy demand has mostly been on improving technology efficiency with little attention to the other mechanisms that involve reducing the need for energy service demands. Reducing energy demand to the extent, and at the speed, that is needed requires both an acceleration in energy efficiency improvement and shifts in the consumption patterns of products and services, travel and diets to avoid the consumption of energy services. None of our Low Energy Demand (LED) scenarios compromise our quality of life. Instead, they seek to enhance it with numerous co-benefits associated with healthier diets, active living, clean air, safe communities, warm homes, rebalancing work and driving down inequality. All this is possible while halving the UK's energy demand
Author(s): Norman, J., Scott, S. and Giesekam, J. 2021.
Published: 2021
Publisher: CREDS
Resource efficiency and energy efficiency were both considered for reducing energy demand for the production of materials and products. Resource efficiency strategies reduce the required output of materials and products. Energy efficiency strategies reduce the energy demand to produce each unit of output. Additionally changes in construction demand are an important driver of material production and associated energy demand.
Author(s): Garvey, A. and Norman, J.
Published: 2021
Publisher: CREDS
This study, undertaken by the Centre for Research into Energy Demand Solutions (CREDS), provides the most comprehensive assessment to date of the role of reducing energy demand to meet the UK's net-zero climate target. The study brings together 18 energy demand modelling experts from within CREDS to provide extensive detail on the possibilities to reduce energy demand in every sector. These sectoral reductions in energy demand are brought together into a whole-system modelling approach, to understand the potential contribution of energy demand reduction to support climate action in the UK.
Author(s): Brand, C., Anable, J. and Marsden, G.
Published: 2021
Publisher: CREDS
The primary focus of UK policy has been to change the vehicle fleet from petrol and diesel, first to ultra low emission vehicles (ULEVs), and then to zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs)1 , primarily through electrification. A lack of progress with heavy goods vehicles and aviation persists, but the unexpected change is the increase in new car energy consumption and CO2 (SMMT, 2018). Switching from diesel accounts for a small proportion of this increase; the main culprit is a continued swing towards larger passenger cars, particularly Sports Utility Vehicles (SUV), which use about 15% more energy than their hatchback or sedan equivalents. Electric vehicles accounted for 8.8% of sales in 2020 (up from 2.5% in 2019) (SMMT, 2020), with two out of five sold being plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). PHEVs have shown to perform little better in terms of energy use and carbon emissions than the most efficient conventional ICE vehicles in real world conditions, as they have been shown to operate in electric mode for only a third of the miles travelled (Plötz et al, 2018a; Plötz et al, 2018b; Plötz et al, 2020). This gap between declared vehicle performance and real-world results prevails across all vehicle types and technologies.
Author(s): HM Government
Published: 2020
Publisher: UK Government
The Ten Point Plan will lay the foundations for a Green Industrial Revolution. The 10 points covered by this plan are: Advancing Offshore Wind; Drivng the Growth of Low Carbon Hydrogen; Delivering New and Advanced Nuclear Power; Accelerating the Shift to Zero Emission Vehicles; Green Public Transport, Cycling and Walking;Jet Zero and Green Ships; Greener Buildings;Investing in Carbon Capture, Usage and Storage; Protecting Our Natural Environment and Green Finance and Innovation
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