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Heavy Duty Vehicle Efficiency Programme - On-Highway Market Analysis Project - Final Report


Citation Patterson, J., Story, J. and White, B. Heavy Duty Vehicle Efficiency Programme - On-Highway Market Analysis Project - Final Report, ETI, 2016. https://doi.org/10.5286/UKERC.EDC.000738.
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Author(s) Patterson, J., Story, J. and White, B.
Project partner(s) Ricardo Automotive World
Publisher ETI
DOI https://doi.org/10.5286/UKERC.EDC.000738
Download AdHoc_HDV_HD2004_1.pdf document type
Abstract The aim of this project is to provide an improved understanding of the current activities and trends occurring in the On-Highway Heavy Duty Vehicle arena. Future technologies and legislation are being assessed to further enhance the our knowledge of the existing market and anticipated future market state.

  • Demand for On Highway Heavy Duty Vehicles will grow from 3.34m vehicles in 2015 to 4.24m vehicles in 2030 (in the 6 large markets studied).
  • The majority of this growth will be in the >7.5 ton vehicle sector, as the Chinese and Indian road transportation markets mature from an “owner operator” model towards a “fleet operator” model. The increase in vehicle weight will increase demand for larger displacement engines (>6 litres) and also encourage further uptake of Automatic Manual Transmissions (AMT) at the expense of manual transmissions.
  • Diesel will remain as the dominant fuel type for HDVs with ~85% HDVs powered by Diesel Internal Combustion Engines in 2030.
  • It is expected that City Buses will have greater levels of hybridisation and there will be a variety of technical solutions for City Buses, including fully electric, as inner city air quality concerns and legislation increases.
  • Emissions legislation will continue to develop in the various regions, with increasing harmonisation between the standards. There is a trend towards increasing number of regulated pollutants, over a larger number of tests and an increased duration (life) that the vehicle must meet the targets. Some regions are beginning to use CO2 / fuel efficiency regulations and it is expected that this trend will spread to other regions over time
Associated Project(s) ETI-HD2004: HDV On-Highway Market Analysis
Associated Dataset(s) No associated datasets
Associated Publication(s)

An ETI Perspective - Natural Gas Pathway Analysis for Heavy Duty Vehicles

Heavy Duty Vehicle Efficiency Programme: On-Highway Market Analysis Project - Request for Proposals

Heavy Duty Vehicles: Efficiency Opportunity, Options, Demonstration and Barriers - Presentation

Transportation: Delivering the High Efficiency Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR) Project - Presentation