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Macro DE - Development of a methodology to calculate energy demand


Citation McKoen, K., Koch, A., Murshed, S.M., Meidl, P., Nichersu, A., Jumel, S. and Limani, B. Macro DE - Development of a methodology to calculate energy demand, ETI, 2010. https://doi.org/10.5286/UKERC.EDC.000277.
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Author(s) McKoen, K., Koch, A., Murshed, S.M., Meidl, P., Nichersu, A., Jumel, S. and Limani, B.
Project partner(s) Electricité de France SA (EDF SA)
Publisher ETI
DOI https://doi.org/10.5286/UKERC.EDC.000277
Download DE_DE2002_15.pdf document type
Abstract This project quantified the opportunity for Macro level Distributed Energy (DE) across the UK and accelerate the development of appropriate technology by 2020 for the purposes of significant implementation by 2030. The project studied energy demand such as residential accommodation, local services, hospitals, business parks and equipment, and is developing a software methodology to analyse local combinations of sites and technologies. This enabled the design of optimised distributed energy delivery solutions for these areas.

This deliverable is number 1 of 3 in Work Package 2. Its objective is to develop a methodology for forecasting energy demand profiles across residential and tertiary (light industry) properties in a given geographical area. In addition the report estimates the level of confidence in the methodology. The demand profiles generated form the basis for demandaggregation modelling in Work Package 4.

We believe that the methodology for the residential therrmal demand is sound and there is sufficient data such that a 10% uncertainty is reflective of the potential propagating error for the UK. While the tertiary sector data methodology is sound, there are two key issues with the datasets that may cause the larger error:
  1. The registered company information databases used in the tertiary sector demand calculations contain many records that are missing the number of employee data;
  2. Conversions between employee numbers and building floor area can only currently be performed at large tertiary sector groupings. The contribution of demand uncertainty from the tertiary component could be projected and tracked in the resulting demand calculations.
  3. The temporal resolution of the demand is good and the method, based on energy transporter load prediction techniques, seems able to predict the main trend and features of residential thermal demand
Associated Project(s) ETI-DE2002: Macro Distributed Energy
Associated Dataset(s) No associated datasets
Associated Publication(s)

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Macro DE - Application of Energy Centre Design Tool to Characteristic Zones

Macro DE - Description of design methodology and tool effectiveness

Macro DE - Design Practice Characterisation Report

Macro DE - District Heating Network (DHN) Design and Algorithm Verification

Macro DE - Energy Demand Analysis in Great Britain

Macro DE - Executive Summary - DE2002 / WP2.0: Development of a methodology to calculate energy demand

Macro DE - Executive Summary - DE2002 / WP2.3: Energy Demand Analysis in GB

Macro DE - Executive Summary - DE2002 / WP3.3: Technology Development Opportunities

Macro DE - Executive Summary - DE2002 / WP5.1: GB Benefits Case for Macro DE

Macro DE - GB Benefits Case for Macro Distributed Energy

Macro DE - Macro DE Technology Assessment Criteria

Macro DE - Macro DE WP5.4 : Summary Report

Macro DE - Project Baseline Objectives

Macro DE - Technology Development Opportunities